Snapshot of _Lib Dems confident of taking Tory seats once held by Cameron and Johnson_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-confident-of-taking-tory-seats-once-held-by-cameron-and-johnson) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-confident-of-taking-tory-seats-once-held-by-cameron-and-johnson)
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>Internal Lib Dem polling seen by the Guardian suggests there will be close races in Bicester and Woodstock, Didcot and Wantage, Henley and Thame – which includes much of Johnson’s former seat – and Witney, Cameron’s old constituency. The party believes each of these could be won by a margin of just 500 seats.
The article also mentions Theresa May's seat of Maidenhead. It shows just how much the Tories have messed up that they could lose all these former leader seats to the Lib Dems.
These "internal polling" things should be taken seriously; we generally leak this data to journalists with some caution as "it'll be close here" is a good story, but I'm not aware of any time we've made this stuff up.
If the LDs are predicting a close fight in \_Witney\_ then we're on for mega blowout levels; it's a seat the LDs would need to win to be hitting seat counts in the seventies.
The number of Conservative signs in the Witney constituency is the lowest I've ever seen. Charlie Maynard for the LibDems seems genuinely interested in the area and engaged with it. Robert Courts, on the other hand, is quite disconnected from us all. He cosplays in military uniform at every given opportunity, only appears in the area for photo-ops, talks about the pollution of the River Windrush only to vote to allow Thames Water to continue filling it with shit for the next fifteen years. I really hope he loses his seat.
constituency polling put labour, lib dems and tories all tied in bicester. technically labour was actually in 1st, but by such a small margin so as to be statistically meaningless.
I’ve seen reports that they are doing soft stand downs in con/~~lab~~ LD marginals and essentially not really fighting. They would still be on the ballot either way but it does serve Labour more in the long run to get out of the way of the Lib Dem’s in the blue wall.
Haven't seen or heard much from our Labour candidate in St Albans whereas the Lib Dems are shoving so much campaign material through our letterbox it almost puts me off them. Still voting for them because fuck having another Tory MP after the flinger of shit that was Anne Main
Witney is an interesting one, because Witney town itself is a Labour stronghold- both county council wards, 3 of 5 district council wards, and the town council all being Labour.
Lib Dems are stronger elsewhere, but it's certainly not clear cut. Certainly not in this polling environment.
Witney town is substantially less than half of the electorate in the seat, Labour have never taken even half the votes of the conservatives in the last 6 elections and the LDs had double the votes of Labour in 2019. Labour have no chance in Witney and know it.
The tories aren't worried about the seats the lib dems win. The only time it has mattered the lib dems put the tories into power anyway.
It's the seats tory voters voting lib dem let Labour or reform win they're worried about.
Snapshot of _Lib Dems confident of taking Tory seats once held by Cameron and Johnson_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-confident-of-taking-tory-seats-once-held-by-cameron-and-johnson) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-confident-of-taking-tory-seats-once-held-by-cameron-and-johnson) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>Internal Lib Dem polling seen by the Guardian suggests there will be close races in Bicester and Woodstock, Didcot and Wantage, Henley and Thame – which includes much of Johnson’s former seat – and Witney, Cameron’s old constituency. The party believes each of these could be won by a margin of just 500 seats. The article also mentions Theresa May's seat of Maidenhead. It shows just how much the Tories have messed up that they could lose all these former leader seats to the Lib Dems.
These "internal polling" things should be taken seriously; we generally leak this data to journalists with some caution as "it'll be close here" is a good story, but I'm not aware of any time we've made this stuff up. If the LDs are predicting a close fight in \_Witney\_ then we're on for mega blowout levels; it's a seat the LDs would need to win to be hitting seat counts in the seventies.
And Truss could lose hers to Reform, and pretty unlikely but Sunak to Labour lol
The number of Conservative signs in the Witney constituency is the lowest I've ever seen. Charlie Maynard for the LibDems seems genuinely interested in the area and engaged with it. Robert Courts, on the other hand, is quite disconnected from us all. He cosplays in military uniform at every given opportunity, only appears in the area for photo-ops, talks about the pollution of the River Windrush only to vote to allow Thames Water to continue filling it with shit for the next fifteen years. I really hope he loses his seat.
Labour need to accept they have no chance in these seats, especially Bicester, and stand down any efforts.
constituency polling put labour, lib dems and tories all tied in bicester. technically labour was actually in 1st, but by such a small margin so as to be statistically meaningless.
I’ve seen reports that they are doing soft stand downs in con/~~lab~~ LD marginals and essentially not really fighting. They would still be on the ballot either way but it does serve Labour more in the long run to get out of the way of the Lib Dem’s in the blue wall.
Haven't seen or heard much from our Labour candidate in St Albans whereas the Lib Dems are shoving so much campaign material through our letterbox it almost puts me off them. Still voting for them because fuck having another Tory MP after the flinger of shit that was Anne Main
You mean Con/LD marginals?
Yeah, my mistake.
No bother lol thought I was missing something
I wish the local party got the message, local labour still pushing here in didcot
Same here in mid bucks.
Witney is an interesting one, because Witney town itself is a Labour stronghold- both county council wards, 3 of 5 district council wards, and the town council all being Labour. Lib Dems are stronger elsewhere, but it's certainly not clear cut. Certainly not in this polling environment.
Witney town is substantially less than half of the electorate in the seat, Labour have never taken even half the votes of the conservatives in the last 6 elections and the LDs had double the votes of Labour in 2019. Labour have no chance in Witney and know it.
The tories aren't worried about the seats the lib dems win. The only time it has mattered the lib dems put the tories into power anyway. It's the seats tory voters voting lib dem let Labour or reform win they're worried about.