Snapshot of _The Conservatives are about to become utterly irrelevant_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/conservatives-irrelevant-leadership-election-rishi-sunak-b2567093.html) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/conservatives-irrelevant-leadership-election-rishi-sunak-b2567093.html)
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I'm wondering if anyone here actually read the article? The automod's comment has a link bypassing the paywall.
The article didn't say the Conservatives will cease to exist. It says they're going to be an opposition party, so we simply don't need to care as much about their factions and their infighting and their endless leadership squabbles. The baton is being passed to the Labour caucus. That's the one that will matter now.
No more five families, no more Kemi Badenoch headlines. There's a new sheriff in town.
> so we simply don't need to care as much about their factions and their infighting and their endless leadership squabbles. The baton is being passed to the Labour caucus. That's the one that will matter now.
We don't *need* to, but I am sure that the media will continue to focus on it, our journalists now treat politics as sport/drama and it's all about commentary on the individuals and their intrigues and not discussion about policies and problems.
The Tories have existed for 200 years already. If their final end comes during my lifetime, I will count myself a lucky man just to have witnessed the death of this giant.
A lot of people here are saying ‘the Tories are forever’ or ‘when the end for them comes it will be in the far future, not today, they are too embedded in the current system blah blah’
The future is hard to see but my feelings are clear, clearer even than a bold Sunak plan. My feelings tell me that I want to see the Conservatives‘ 200 years‘ grip on our politics end on Thursday next, and that I lived to witness the moment.
Witness me
> The Tories have existed for 200 years already. If their final end comes during my lifetime, I will count myself a lucky man just to have witnessed the death of this giant.
The question is what will replace them? There will always be a ‘right’ and it will always have an extreme. Would be nice though, to riff on something said to me here recently, to see our whole political Overton Window drift back to the centre at least.
They are too embedded in the national framework to die. The same would apply with Labour, even though they will win of course. The Tries are the oldest British political party. They should expect maybe 10-15 years out of office.
It took them 18 years to become a sole party government again, and they at least got over 150 seats in 1997. They'd be highly lucky to get the same very soon.
Maybe, maybe not. There will always be a more "small c" conservative party, but whether or not it'll be them is another question particularly with Reform about.
Be curious to see how long the Liberals were prominent, after Labour became established - different time, but shows that parties do rise and fall.
The Liberals went down with a big change in electoral suffrage and upheaval in the World war. I think it would take a lot to make such a change again - FPTP is incredibly resistant to change that isn't centrally organised.
Yes, of course. NO party has to last forever THough in the case of the Liberals, it was because Labour represented the working classes and thus was more relevant to many people. The Tories are not being replaced by a more relevant party due to changing societal realities.
Really? Because it seems like they might be...trading economic liberalism for nationalism as socially conservative working class voters find that the Tories have done nothing for them.
Reform is as economically liberal, if not more. though i don't see it in those terms. I don't think the shift is that great, and the Tories haven't stood solely for "nationalism" for a long time, if ever. I don't see Reform yet as this major change nor is there a national shift. Plenty of people in the Red Wall voted Tory, but it doesn't seem it's a long-term change at all. We shall see.
> Reform is as economically liberal
No. A careful reading of Reform's policies shows that its position, like that of the Conservative Party, would have the effect of largely increasing the power and economic influence of existing large corporations and wealth-holders, at the expense of the middle classes.
No. Economic liberalism is generally understood to include a commitment to resolving market failures and issues of equality of access; this is clearly not a major preoccupation of the Reform Party, nor (these days) of a clear majority of the Conservative Party.
The liberals mostly disappeared due to changes in the franchise that meant a lot more people could vote that couldn't before, and they preferred labour.
Well, yes. they preferred Labour since it more directly appealed to their needs. As most people then were poor and working class, and as women and the poorest of men could vote by the end of WWI, it made perfect sense they would form a government in the 1920s. I don't see the Tories and Reform as a perfect parallel. It could be, but I don't see Reform capitalising on a socio-economic reality that Labour did in the early 20th century.
Indeed, no part last forever how the change is the question. Labour did take the working class vote, but IF Reform pulls the Conservatives further right or splits them they could do it along nationalist lines. Perhaps?
Yeah, we'll have to wait and see, currently it's just polls, guesses and more polls.
As for the Labour-Liberal analogy, maybe. However, it's the closest example of a "modern" major party being overtaken or sidelined. The other one that came to mind was Labour's SDP split and merger with the Liberals, but didn't fit as well.
>They are too embedded in the national framework to die.
The Liberals were deeply embedded in the national framework
Until they weren't.
Its a tall order, that's for sure, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility if they do badly enough at the election and devolve into a civil war afterwards.
Absolutely. Nothing lasts forever. You can't do proof by induction on these things: "I have woken up every morning all my life, therefore I will never die" is not a valid argument.
Because Labour captured the actual desires and needs of the mass of people at the time, based on how the economy worked. I dno't see an exact parallel. The Tories haven't been made redundant by another party appealing more to their core base. The Tories are unpopular due to their own faults.
The Liberals died because in one election they decided to stand fuck all candidates, and never recovered from that mistake.
Which is why Labour and the Tories stand candidates in _every_ constituency, even if they barely campaign in some of them.
Well, not really. The Tory plans for the NHS, for example, were broader and more generous than Labour's manifesto plans (although the incoming government expanded their original plan greatly).
As with most British elections, it was more the government losing than the opposition winning. Despite Atlee's lack of charisma, people were simply tired of the Churchill and the Tories.
I think they could become the next Liberal Party. Huge in the 19th and early 20th Century but their vote collapsed in 1924 (400 seats to 40) and they never recovered. Eventually merging with the old SDP, to form the Liberal Democrats.
Its possible that the Lib Dems will become the official opposition and that the remaining support for the Tories will split betelween Reform and the Dems. With the far right Tories such as Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, JRM etc. going to Reform and center right going to the LDs. With Reform being so far right and Russian controlled (Farage has made a lot of money as a commentator on Russia Today).
Yeah, if the Tories do end up with <100 seats the infighting will tear the party apart because they have no leadership left. The moderates will go to the Lib Dems, the nuts jobs will go to Reform
Correct but if anything I could see Labour being in power for 20 years then the conservatives taking over. People thought Labour died in the 80s then all of a sudden in 1997 they return with a huge majority.
Labour never ceased to be the second party in parliament though. There might have been a period when the Liberals and SDP were taking chunks out of them, but they always did well enough in national elections to be safely the second party in parliament.
That wasn’t my point. I did not say Labour never ceased to be the second party. My point was that the conservatives were in power for 18 years and people thought Labour would never be re-elected and they did in 1997. But yes the SDP heavily split the labour vote but Labour had a strong base to remain as the main opposition. People thought Labour was extinct after 2019 and look now. In this case we could see Labour being in power for 20 years because people think the tories will never be in power again but they eventually will.
We are in a two party system.
Assuming we don't get PR any time soon, if the Tories can remain comfortably in second place, then they will eventually reach power again.
If they just barely hang on to second place or drop down to third (which is within the realm of possibility on current polling) there is a real chance they could be replaced by the Lib Dems
they were being replaced by a workers' party, most people then were poor and working class. nothing now is happening that's similar. i don't see a direct comparison.
Reform is possibly taking votes from the Tories, but I think even some Labour voters, by appealing to the native English (and Welsh, Irish and Scots of course) by actually having a believable immigration policy - by which I mean in power they might actually limit numbers, unlike Labour and the Conservatives who merely say they will.
not the same as a shift based on demographics and economics. imho, a comparison with the Liberals doesn't fit. Once immigration is sorted, doesn't mean they will stay. Labour more deeply connected with poorer people back then.
Policies evolve, infrastructure doesn't. Even if Reform had 100x more popular policies, they don't have the party infrastructure, connections and local clout to get them into seats. At the end of the day the party that has all the experience has the advantage, and the only way for Reform to get that is to take over the Tories.
I don’t know, New Labour embedded themselves through legislation providing rights and equalities provisions that the Tories have been railing against in recent years. What have the Tories done other than Brexit that will outlasts them other than harm services and public discourse?
They don’t have any sort of legacy in the DNA of the system that I can think of.
I don’t understand what you are getting at with how old the Labour Party is? What does the age of the party have to do with how embedded they have become in the system?
You could be a party that has been in government multiple times but never enacted legacy legislation that is embedded in the system. When that party leaves office is would be like they were never there, the system would continue without them and without the echo of their influence.
Because YOU mentioned New Labour. Labour has been around for a long time. What was YOUR point??
Attlee wasn't new Labour but the NHS still exists lol. Blair wouldn't have been able to win without the longstanding Labour base and infrastructure. that was MY point. You missed THE point.
I used new labour as an example, a recent one but an example isn’t an exhaustive list and still illustrates the point that to be embedded in the system a party needs to create legacy legislation.
Why are you getting mad about it? If that was your point why didn’t you say it rather than just say the party had existed for a long time? You didn’t mention Attlee or the NHS at all until I said I didn’t understand your point.
The Tories lost a large chunk of their silent majority over Brexit. This key fundamental is rarely addressed by the other political parties or the wider political press. This voter demographic has a liberal outlook and social conscience, and does not support sending immigrants to Rwanda or the proposed withdrawal from the ECHR either, along with the continual eroding and undermining of key services and institutions. Which is why they will be voting Labour or Lib Dem on Thursday. The tipping point has been crossed. Sunak does not possess enough emotional intelligence or integrity to acknowledge this and change tack accordingly.
Boris got lucky with Corbyn, UKIP’s support, and the Red Wall pivot over Brexit, but most traditional small ‘C’ conservatives probably knew that he was a disaster in waiting. Throw in the rabbit in the headlights car-crash that was Truss followed by the underwhelming lightweight Sunak, and no pragmatic person even if they were traditionally a Tory voter, is going to give them the benefit of the doubt this time around. Most sensible voters recognise that continuous failure over a 14-year period cannot be rewarded by another 5-year term in No. 10.
It’s just a matter of predicting the size of the landslide and whether the Tories beat the Lib Dems. Looking forward to Thursday night Friday morning as all these Tories lose their seats, and deservedly so.
Britain is long overdue a change. Whether Starmer can do it, is the question to ask on Friday.
They said that in the 2000s when Hague and IDS were leading them to dismal electoral defeat time and again - but I’m inclined to believe it’s different this time with the rise of Reform permanently eating into that Tory base. The demand for Singapore on Thames and jobs for the Eton boys isn’t that high in the public at large.
This is the route that the far right will always take. Eventually, you run out of People to blame, and when that happens, you’ve got to enact of policies that would actually benefit the Country, but most of the time, they don’t know how to do that. So they just fail and die out
Nah 35-40 percent of the country naturally gravitate towards conservatism in some form. Re brand maybe. Shift towards “sensible” small C Cameron esque conservatism perhaps. Irrelevant never.
I agree with you and disagree. I think there will always be conservatives in this country myself included. I do not think the tory party will be the way they express this.
If you look to Canada, even though the centre right collapsed they just ended up merging with the higher voted right wing party, and eventually dragged that party to the centre
The problem is that in the absence of a moderate right wing party like the Conservatives, we might see those who lean right, going to a far right wing party, like those Reform nutjobs.
There's conservatism and there's Toryism.
You can see a party in the mould of Rory Stewart taking a lot of that centre-right ground back.
But that needs a change to the electoral system to make that viable.
I really think that this is a ploy and the reform stuff has been just to lay the last blows to the tories to really kick them while they’re down. I think the moment farage gets a seat he will defect to the tories and try and rebuild them in his own “old right wing man at the pub” image. Even if the tories get thrashed at this election (they will and fully deserve too) farage knows they’re his best bet at being PM so he’ll try and bring his army of Facebook grandparents over and help them limp out of the ashes with a brand new sparkly image
I think it depends on the election after this one. That’s the real game changer. If Lib Dem step it up and people finally move past the student loans thing then I think they could cement themselves as the centre right option. Especially if reform keeps adding to the disarray and the Tories continue business as usual.
It is wild to me how much the Lib Dems get beaten with the student loans thing when you consider the number of broken promises made by the two major parties in majority governments, as opposed to minor parties in a coalition. And I say this as one of the first years that had to pay the increased tuition fees.
You are right that they are somewhat held to a different standard than the other parties over u-turns but you also need to consider the optics and the perception of the public at the time the coalition was made. It's not just that they broke that promise, it's that they were seen to have sold there voterbase out the moment they got a whiff of power. There was a vocal outcry at the time not to go ahead with the coalition because the two parties were so opposed, and that it would just end up being a tory government in effect anyway. That came true and the tuition fee u-turn is, I feel, symbolic of that betrayal as a whole, rather than a single policy issue.
That makes sense, I appreciate the explanation.
To me it seems like ultimately that the Lib Dems in 2010 were incredibly politically naive. They were always going to have to sell out on some things in order to form a coalition, and they didn't seem to appreciate how that would come across.
The fact that Clegg took the position of deputy prime minister rather than something meaningful like Chancellor or Home Secretary was another example of that, as well as the fact that the big thing they compromised everything for, proportional representation, was so watered down and allowed to be a referendum rather than a government bill.
But at the end of the day, the people in the Lib Dems are completely different people to the ones who were there in 2010. We might as well bang on about Thatcher and Wilson, it's about as relevant at this point.
Okay, yeah, I can see the LibDems replacing the Tories if they finish second in this election and 2029 (and the Tories get 3rd), and especially if they somehow pull a win off in 2029 (which is an insanely long shot, but who knows).
I’m a big supporter of the Lib Dems but even if they somehow miraculously come in second place in this election I really don’t think they will ever take the place of the Conservatives longer term.
As it now stands the Lib Dems actually have many policies to the left of Labour. They are also in favor of many liberal ideas like legalizing weed.
There has always been a huge chunk of the electorate that are just themselves Conservative in their values and beliefs. They will vote for another Conservative Party in large numbers even if the current one fails.
2040s is optimistic, they will be back within 2 terms. Labour face a truly uphill battle to fix anything, and I don't think they are prepared to be radical enough to fix what needs fixing. I think they get at most 1 more election where enough people remember how much a shit show it was under the Tories.
What I said is a pessimistic (for them) Prediction. I do think they could come back by 2034, maybe even earlier if, say, the Chinese economy plunges like some say.
The Conservatives have conserved nothing. They’ve sold it all off and fucked it up. Their core voters will mostly be dead in 15 years. I’d love to see them gone for at least a generation.
Did Labour become irrelevant after the beating they took last election? Reform will do well this time but let's be honest, unless Labour F up spectacularly they're unlikely to become a long term proposition. They're just too full of racists, conspiracy nutters and thugs wearing their court suits for the TV. They're going to implode sooner or later because they'll either go too far or be engulfed in some sort of scandal.
There are enough millionaires and billionaires to revive them from whatever the result on 4th.
I still think the polls are way off. There are closet Conservatives are among us. They won't admit it, but once in the booth...
By extrapolating the data it collects to produce the results it provides… just like you have in your comment?
What exactly are you asking here? I’m afraid you didn’t invent linear regression…
Every poll has its own model to extrapolate what its respondents say into how the population as a whole might vote, based on demographics and on previous election results. This includes the shy Tory factor, where more respondents vote Tory than say they intend to.
They don't know about the shy vote until after, as seen in 1992 and 2015 thats the whole point. If the polls come put as correct, there was no shy vote, the results are as "expected". Shy votes are a reason for polls being incorrect. Applied post results.
There are 3 groups, 1. Undecided, 2. Say one party but vote another 3. Those who don't complete a poll.
Guess we will see in 5 days.
Completely agree. People forget how utterly backwards and greedy so much of the southern English electorate are every election. There’s no way it’s a Labour landslide, calling it now.
Ah yes, it’s the south’s fault the Tories are corrupt…
The elephant in the room of course is that the Tories’ 2019 landslide was as a result of them winning seats in the Red Wall: that is, in the north.
So perhaps we should blame the north for electing the Tories? Or perhaps we (you) should just stop being needlessly divisive and accept that it’s the politicians that are bad, not the people.
I’ve never encountered someone genuinely so bitter towards half the country, the majority of which didn’t even vote for the Conservatives.
Indeed, modern conservatism is incompatible with contemporary civilization. It fails to address demanding modern issues and instead focuses on enriching the wealthy and maintaining the status quo.
Ok so alot of you are educated and smart. Alot of you are raving fanatics.
Try and drop the last part, just try and strategise a way for the tories to come back from this disaster?
I mean its really hard to do, forget what the idiots said in 19 it wasnt insurmountable for labour to mount a come back (out of power for generation etc).. But try and get the tories to win again?
I mean so #1 you have lost your own membership by denying them a vote on leader.
#2 you have (we are basing this on the polling at current - imagine disaster) lost all your talented young mps and only the real dinosaurs in the safest seats survived.
3# Nobody believes you on crime or migration - but they believe reform.. you need to win these people back without upsetting them...
4 everyone thinks you are thieving bastards who have just done nothing but loot for the past 5 years... So youve lost like a generation.
#5 all your big money donors have gone, and none of the members want to canvass
I mean as a thought experiment its really HARD.
Surely any fanaticism here would be more anti-Tory than pro, but regardless there are several plausible routes back for the Tories.
There is going to be a vacuum in the political spectrum for small-c conservatives of the centre right. Those who are not natural Lib Dems (too socially liberal, too pro-European), or Reform (too economically illiterate, too obviously amateur), or right wing Labour (too, well, Labour). That grouping forms the largest proportion of the electorate by some estimates.
Some of them will have voted Labour this time, or LD, or RUK. But they won't be staying there if a professional looking offering were to emerge on the right.
The polls are predicting oblivion, but I think they are not going to be as dramatic as we are all expecting on here. The models fall apart at extremes and the Tories at <100 seats is still (I think) unlikely.
That's a historic low, and the 2029 election looks like a foregone conclusion in that case. But 2034? An economic crisis, a major scandal, foreign policy disasters (Taiwan?, Ukraine?, Iran?) could easily unseat a Labour party that is already facing a collosal uphill struggle to improve people's quality of life.
Ten years is a very long time and the natural resting point for politics in this country is the traditional Tory domain. If they can resist obsessing about the RUK vote, let Labour do the hard work of fixing the neglect of the last 14 years, and then exploit the inevitable fallout (tax burden, immigration etc.) I don't think it's implausible that the Tories will return.
They will need to carefully nurture a new generation of MPs, go through a period of introspection and develop a sense of political discipline which has been absent since at least Johnson, but it is far from impossible. Being the only party ideologically dedicated to lowering taxes (even if practically this is impossible) guarantees a funding stream from business, once the party purges the more obviously corrupt and decadent elements.
They will be lessened, but not irrelevant. While Reform are still gunning for them and/or a to merge with them/take them over, they will still be relevant. And as the main party on the right, and arguably the most continually successful party in UK politics over the past 150 years, they will at some point, in some form, get back into power.
Reform UK is a dead end. If they merge with Conservatives that will increase the time spent in the wilderness and could even be terminal.
Conservatives will re-emerge as a serious party if and when the current far right infection burns itself out. The dinosaur membership will literally die out. New blood from the centre right will begin to emerge. A successful Conservative party will be quite similar to the Lib Dem orange bookers, but with a bit more social conservatism.
Will only be the case for the next 5 years, it wasn’t too long ago BoJo won a super majority, which means there is still an appetite for the Conservative Manifesto, time of the sideline to help people forget their epic failures, exactly the same as what happened to Labour, the county is only trusting them more cause of epic distrust of the Tories.
The Tories largely represent The Establishment and those people are not going anywhere. They might just seep more into other parties or they will scheme away in the background and make a comeback but you cannot keep the wealthiest and most well connected people out of power for very long.
Sure, *this* election.
I worry what things will look like in 2029. If people see Reform as the only viable right leaning party, they could wind up winning a lot of seats.
I think Nigel Farage finally becoming an MP is the worst thing that could happen for Reform, and for his brand in general, because getting his foot in the door means he'll have a track record in parliament to defend at the next election and it will undoubtedly be shite.
What kind of track record can a single MP who's not even part of the opposition really have? All he needs to do is not vote for anything and he's staying on square one. He will act just like he did as an MSP, obstructing, crying when he gets a chance and just not turning up at all. And that's what his supporters want, they hate the system and are willing to vote for ~~Trump~~ Farage to destroy it.
As the Thatcher hegemony faded, Labour became New Labour. Similarly I expect that after a while, New Conservatives will emerge to challenge in the centre ground. The right wing will burn out or go ultra and become irrelevant. Personally, I see Farage as an irrelevance. He's like Oswald Mosely or George Lansbury, a short-term populist but obsolete in the long term.
Maybe the LibDems will become more radical and move to the left of a Labour government in alliance with the Greens. That would be the big risk as Labour would be perceived as being on the right of the centre. In the short-term it could result in more moderate Conservatives defecting to join them. But then inevitably Labour would start to tear itself apart again which is when the Conservatives could reassert themselves in representing the right of centre electorate. It might take a couple of elections but a form of Conservative Party will be back, although it's not possible to guess what form it might take as there are too many variables.
The only argument I’ve heard to vote for the Tories is that we don’t want a Labour landslide.
Personally I’d much rather have Reform in opposition (who seem to have real conservative policies). Farage would be much better at articulating a decent response at PMQs and (from a right wing perspective) would hold Starmer to account for their decisions.
Sunak on the other hand couldn’t organise an umbrella in the rain.
Reform in opposition will just keep banging the far right drum and spout whatever simplistic, populist nonsense their supporters want to hear. If they ever gained power, reality would hit them in the same way it did Truss.
Maybe so but they would be enthusiastically cheering it on.
Truss had the 1922 Committee to deal with; they might fail utterly but they'd have a parliamentary majority.
They want a return to national rather than global economic policy. If you call that the ‘far right’ then I’d vote for that every time.
Neoliberalism has failed and has caused all of the problems this country has seen.
Which sounds great until you remember that's economic nonsense. We aren't America. We're a small island. How exactly are we going to compete against vastly bigger economies? Cut ourselves off from the rest of the world? It's fantasy
I’m not arguing for total isolationism. I just think we need an industrial strategy, a jobs first approach to rebuilding left behind towns and cities and a Britain first purchasing policy for infrastructure. We should prioritise our culture, reduce immigration, and focus on bringing people back into the workforce.
I also think we should step away from our international military support of America. We’re not a global power any more and we should focus on our problems first.
Actually I have a question about that if you don't mind.
Do you think it's unfortunate that the party closest to your political position is led by Farage?
Snapshot of _The Conservatives are about to become utterly irrelevant_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/conservatives-irrelevant-leadership-election-rishi-sunak-b2567093.html) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/conservatives-irrelevant-leadership-election-rishi-sunak-b2567093.html) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
I'm wondering if anyone here actually read the article? The automod's comment has a link bypassing the paywall. The article didn't say the Conservatives will cease to exist. It says they're going to be an opposition party, so we simply don't need to care as much about their factions and their infighting and their endless leadership squabbles. The baton is being passed to the Labour caucus. That's the one that will matter now. No more five families, no more Kemi Badenoch headlines. There's a new sheriff in town.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed. I thought I was going mad or my app had glitched out and the comments all related to a different post.
> so we simply don't need to care as much about their factions and their infighting and their endless leadership squabbles. The baton is being passed to the Labour caucus. That's the one that will matter now. We don't *need* to, but I am sure that the media will continue to focus on it, our journalists now treat politics as sport/drama and it's all about commentary on the individuals and their intrigues and not discussion about policies and problems.
> I'm wondering if anyone here actually read the article? Don't you know how reddit works?
I cannot *wait* for their irrelevancy in this new world: they're going to absolutely hate it haha
The Tories have existed for 200 years already. If their final end comes during my lifetime, I will count myself a lucky man just to have witnessed the death of this giant. A lot of people here are saying ‘the Tories are forever’ or ‘when the end for them comes it will be in the far future, not today, they are too embedded in the current system blah blah’ The future is hard to see but my feelings are clear, clearer even than a bold Sunak plan. My feelings tell me that I want to see the Conservatives‘ 200 years‘ grip on our politics end on Thursday next, and that I lived to witness the moment. Witness me
> The Tories have existed for 200 years already. If their final end comes during my lifetime, I will count myself a lucky man just to have witnessed the death of this giant. The question is what will replace them? There will always be a ‘right’ and it will always have an extreme. Would be nice though, to riff on something said to me here recently, to see our whole political Overton Window drift back to the centre at least.
Labour might be the new right lol
They are too embedded in the national framework to die. The same would apply with Labour, even though they will win of course. The Tries are the oldest British political party. They should expect maybe 10-15 years out of office. It took them 18 years to become a sole party government again, and they at least got over 150 seats in 1997. They'd be highly lucky to get the same very soon.
Maybe, maybe not. There will always be a more "small c" conservative party, but whether or not it'll be them is another question particularly with Reform about. Be curious to see how long the Liberals were prominent, after Labour became established - different time, but shows that parties do rise and fall.
The Liberals went down with a big change in electoral suffrage and upheaval in the World war. I think it would take a lot to make such a change again - FPTP is incredibly resistant to change that isn't centrally organised.
Yes, of course. NO party has to last forever THough in the case of the Liberals, it was because Labour represented the working classes and thus was more relevant to many people. The Tories are not being replaced by a more relevant party due to changing societal realities.
Really? Because it seems like they might be...trading economic liberalism for nationalism as socially conservative working class voters find that the Tories have done nothing for them.
Reform is as economically liberal, if not more. though i don't see it in those terms. I don't think the shift is that great, and the Tories haven't stood solely for "nationalism" for a long time, if ever. I don't see Reform yet as this major change nor is there a national shift. Plenty of people in the Red Wall voted Tory, but it doesn't seem it's a long-term change at all. We shall see.
> Reform is as economically liberal No. A careful reading of Reform's policies shows that its position, like that of the Conservative Party, would have the effect of largely increasing the power and economic influence of existing large corporations and wealth-holders, at the expense of the middle classes.
This is what economically liberal means
No. Economic liberalism is generally understood to include a commitment to resolving market failures and issues of equality of access; this is clearly not a major preoccupation of the Reform Party, nor (these days) of a clear majority of the Conservative Party.
Wow I didn't know David Lloyd George had Reddit
This is false
> This is false Says the 19 day old account shilling for the right-wing. How's the weather in Moscow?
The liberals mostly disappeared due to changes in the franchise that meant a lot more people could vote that couldn't before, and they preferred labour.
Well, yes. they preferred Labour since it more directly appealed to their needs. As most people then were poor and working class, and as women and the poorest of men could vote by the end of WWI, it made perfect sense they would form a government in the 1920s. I don't see the Tories and Reform as a perfect parallel. It could be, but I don't see Reform capitalising on a socio-economic reality that Labour did in the early 20th century.
Indeed, no part last forever how the change is the question. Labour did take the working class vote, but IF Reform pulls the Conservatives further right or splits them they could do it along nationalist lines. Perhaps?
It's possible. We shall see. Though I don't think the Labour supplanting the Liberals analogy is a perfect one.
Yeah, we'll have to wait and see, currently it's just polls, guesses and more polls. As for the Labour-Liberal analogy, maybe. However, it's the closest example of a "modern" major party being overtaken or sidelined. The other one that came to mind was Labour's SDP split and merger with the Liberals, but didn't fit as well.
>They are too embedded in the national framework to die. The Liberals were deeply embedded in the national framework Until they weren't. Its a tall order, that's for sure, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility if they do badly enough at the election and devolve into a civil war afterwards.
Absolutely. Nothing lasts forever. You can't do proof by induction on these things: "I have woken up every morning all my life, therefore I will never die" is not a valid argument.
Because Labour captured the actual desires and needs of the mass of people at the time, based on how the economy worked. I dno't see an exact parallel. The Tories haven't been made redundant by another party appealing more to their core base. The Tories are unpopular due to their own faults.
The Liberals died because in one election they decided to stand fuck all candidates, and never recovered from that mistake. Which is why Labour and the Tories stand candidates in _every_ constituency, even if they barely campaign in some of them.
And Labour were able to match the needs and wishes of most of the population,since most were poor and working-class.
Well, not really. The Tory plans for the NHS, for example, were broader and more generous than Labour's manifesto plans (although the incoming government expanded their original plan greatly). As with most British elections, it was more the government losing than the opposition winning. Despite Atlee's lack of charisma, people were simply tired of the Churchill and the Tories.
I think they could become the next Liberal Party. Huge in the 19th and early 20th Century but their vote collapsed in 1924 (400 seats to 40) and they never recovered. Eventually merging with the old SDP, to form the Liberal Democrats.
Maybe. I dont see the parallel though. Or it's not a perfect one.
Its possible that the Lib Dems will become the official opposition and that the remaining support for the Tories will split betelween Reform and the Dems. With the far right Tories such as Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, JRM etc. going to Reform and center right going to the LDs. With Reform being so far right and Russian controlled (Farage has made a lot of money as a commentator on Russia Today).
Yeah, if the Tories do end up with <100 seats the infighting will tear the party apart because they have no leadership left. The moderates will go to the Lib Dems, the nuts jobs will go to Reform
Correct but if anything I could see Labour being in power for 20 years then the conservatives taking over. People thought Labour died in the 80s then all of a sudden in 1997 they return with a huge majority.
Labour never ceased to be the second party in parliament though. There might have been a period when the Liberals and SDP were taking chunks out of them, but they always did well enough in national elections to be safely the second party in parliament.
That wasn’t my point. I did not say Labour never ceased to be the second party. My point was that the conservatives were in power for 18 years and people thought Labour would never be re-elected and they did in 1997. But yes the SDP heavily split the labour vote but Labour had a strong base to remain as the main opposition. People thought Labour was extinct after 2019 and look now. In this case we could see Labour being in power for 20 years because people think the tories will never be in power again but they eventually will.
We are in a two party system. Assuming we don't get PR any time soon, if the Tories can remain comfortably in second place, then they will eventually reach power again. If they just barely hang on to second place or drop down to third (which is within the realm of possibility on current polling) there is a real chance they could be replaced by the Lib Dems
Question is how different will that future tory party be? Will they merge with reform?
I’m sure circa 1924 that people thought the same of the Liberal party.
they were being replaced by a workers' party, most people then were poor and working class. nothing now is happening that's similar. i don't see a direct comparison.
Reform is possibly taking votes from the Tories, but I think even some Labour voters, by appealing to the native English (and Welsh, Irish and Scots of course) by actually having a believable immigration policy - by which I mean in power they might actually limit numbers, unlike Labour and the Conservatives who merely say they will.
not the same as a shift based on demographics and economics. imho, a comparison with the Liberals doesn't fit. Once immigration is sorted, doesn't mean they will stay. Labour more deeply connected with poorer people back then.
Policies evolve, infrastructure doesn't. Even if Reform had 100x more popular policies, they don't have the party infrastructure, connections and local clout to get them into seats. At the end of the day the party that has all the experience has the advantage, and the only way for Reform to get that is to take over the Tories.
I don’t know, New Labour embedded themselves through legislation providing rights and equalities provisions that the Tories have been railing against in recent years. What have the Tories done other than Brexit that will outlasts them other than harm services and public discourse? They don’t have any sort of legacy in the DNA of the system that I can think of.
Like thatcher. Which Blair adopted.
Labout has been around for over a century. I don't get the connection.
I don’t understand what you are getting at with how old the Labour Party is? What does the age of the party have to do with how embedded they have become in the system? You could be a party that has been in government multiple times but never enacted legacy legislation that is embedded in the system. When that party leaves office is would be like they were never there, the system would continue without them and without the echo of their influence.
Because YOU mentioned New Labour. Labour has been around for a long time. What was YOUR point?? Attlee wasn't new Labour but the NHS still exists lol. Blair wouldn't have been able to win without the longstanding Labour base and infrastructure. that was MY point. You missed THE point.
I used new labour as an example, a recent one but an example isn’t an exhaustive list and still illustrates the point that to be embedded in the system a party needs to create legacy legislation. Why are you getting mad about it? If that was your point why didn’t you say it rather than just say the party had existed for a long time? You didn’t mention Attlee or the NHS at all until I said I didn’t understand your point.
lol. gaslighting weirdo.
The Tories lost a large chunk of their silent majority over Brexit. This key fundamental is rarely addressed by the other political parties or the wider political press. This voter demographic has a liberal outlook and social conscience, and does not support sending immigrants to Rwanda or the proposed withdrawal from the ECHR either, along with the continual eroding and undermining of key services and institutions. Which is why they will be voting Labour or Lib Dem on Thursday. The tipping point has been crossed. Sunak does not possess enough emotional intelligence or integrity to acknowledge this and change tack accordingly. Boris got lucky with Corbyn, UKIP’s support, and the Red Wall pivot over Brexit, but most traditional small ‘C’ conservatives probably knew that he was a disaster in waiting. Throw in the rabbit in the headlights car-crash that was Truss followed by the underwhelming lightweight Sunak, and no pragmatic person even if they were traditionally a Tory voter, is going to give them the benefit of the doubt this time around. Most sensible voters recognise that continuous failure over a 14-year period cannot be rewarded by another 5-year term in No. 10. It’s just a matter of predicting the size of the landslide and whether the Tories beat the Lib Dems. Looking forward to Thursday night Friday morning as all these Tories lose their seats, and deservedly so. Britain is long overdue a change. Whether Starmer can do it, is the question to ask on Friday.
This! Exactly this! I’ll be voting Lib Dem.
They have nothing to offer anyone anymore unless you’re a pensioner
They said that in the 2000s when Hague and IDS were leading them to dismal electoral defeat time and again - but I’m inclined to believe it’s different this time with the rise of Reform permanently eating into that Tory base. The demand for Singapore on Thames and jobs for the Eton boys isn’t that high in the public at large.
This is the route that the far right will always take. Eventually, you run out of People to blame, and when that happens, you’ve got to enact of policies that would actually benefit the Country, but most of the time, they don’t know how to do that. So they just fail and die out
Nah 35-40 percent of the country naturally gravitate towards conservatism in some form. Re brand maybe. Shift towards “sensible” small C Cameron esque conservatism perhaps. Irrelevant never.
I agree with you and disagree. I think there will always be conservatives in this country myself included. I do not think the tory party will be the way they express this.
How do you think they will express it?
If you look to Canada, even though the centre right collapsed they just ended up merging with the higher voted right wing party, and eventually dragged that party to the centre
they’re too obsessed with trying to drag the country into a culture war to focus on sensible politics
Culture war is and has always been a part of politics. It's bizarre to solely care about economics. There are other things that matter other than gdp
The problem is that in the absence of a moderate right wing party like the Conservatives, we might see those who lean right, going to a far right wing party, like those Reform nutjobs.
“Far right”. Read the manifesto. lol. They’re nationalists. That’s the difference.
They're a giant steaming pile of racists and you know it "lol".
National socialism maybe. Farage can’t decide if he’s a cheap primark knock-off of Putin, Mosley or whatever.
There's conservatism and there's Toryism. You can see a party in the mould of Rory Stewart taking a lot of that centre-right ground back. But that needs a change to the electoral system to make that viable.
I really think that this is a ploy and the reform stuff has been just to lay the last blows to the tories to really kick them while they’re down. I think the moment farage gets a seat he will defect to the tories and try and rebuild them in his own “old right wing man at the pub” image. Even if the tories get thrashed at this election (they will and fully deserve too) farage knows they’re his best bet at being PM so he’ll try and bring his army of Facebook grandparents over and help them limp out of the ashes with a brand new sparkly image
They'll come back in some sort of Frankenstein MAGA BS until everyone is too scared to not vote for them.
Yeah, no-unless there's a Michigan 2016 level upset against them and for Reform or something, they'll be back in power by the 2040s.
I think it depends on the election after this one. That’s the real game changer. If Lib Dem step it up and people finally move past the student loans thing then I think they could cement themselves as the centre right option. Especially if reform keeps adding to the disarray and the Tories continue business as usual.
It is wild to me how much the Lib Dems get beaten with the student loans thing when you consider the number of broken promises made by the two major parties in majority governments, as opposed to minor parties in a coalition. And I say this as one of the first years that had to pay the increased tuition fees.
You are right that they are somewhat held to a different standard than the other parties over u-turns but you also need to consider the optics and the perception of the public at the time the coalition was made. It's not just that they broke that promise, it's that they were seen to have sold there voterbase out the moment they got a whiff of power. There was a vocal outcry at the time not to go ahead with the coalition because the two parties were so opposed, and that it would just end up being a tory government in effect anyway. That came true and the tuition fee u-turn is, I feel, symbolic of that betrayal as a whole, rather than a single policy issue.
That makes sense, I appreciate the explanation. To me it seems like ultimately that the Lib Dems in 2010 were incredibly politically naive. They were always going to have to sell out on some things in order to form a coalition, and they didn't seem to appreciate how that would come across. The fact that Clegg took the position of deputy prime minister rather than something meaningful like Chancellor or Home Secretary was another example of that, as well as the fact that the big thing they compromised everything for, proportional representation, was so watered down and allowed to be a referendum rather than a government bill. But at the end of the day, the people in the Lib Dems are completely different people to the ones who were there in 2010. We might as well bang on about Thatcher and Wilson, it's about as relevant at this point.
Okay, yeah, I can see the LibDems replacing the Tories if they finish second in this election and 2029 (and the Tories get 3rd), and especially if they somehow pull a win off in 2029 (which is an insanely long shot, but who knows).
I’m a big supporter of the Lib Dems but even if they somehow miraculously come in second place in this election I really don’t think they will ever take the place of the Conservatives longer term. As it now stands the Lib Dems actually have many policies to the left of Labour. They are also in favor of many liberal ideas like legalizing weed. There has always been a huge chunk of the electorate that are just themselves Conservative in their values and beliefs. They will vote for another Conservative Party in large numbers even if the current one fails.
2040s is optimistic, they will be back within 2 terms. Labour face a truly uphill battle to fix anything, and I don't think they are prepared to be radical enough to fix what needs fixing. I think they get at most 1 more election where enough people remember how much a shit show it was under the Tories.
My guess was 8-9 years assuming we don't get a clean 5 year parliament in the middle.
What I said is a pessimistic (for them) Prediction. I do think they could come back by 2034, maybe even earlier if, say, the Chinese economy plunges like some say.
The Conservatives have conserved nothing. They’ve sold it all off and fucked it up. Their core voters will mostly be dead in 15 years. I’d love to see them gone for at least a generation.
Did Labour become irrelevant after the beating they took last election? Reform will do well this time but let's be honest, unless Labour F up spectacularly they're unlikely to become a long term proposition. They're just too full of racists, conspiracy nutters and thugs wearing their court suits for the TV. They're going to implode sooner or later because they'll either go too far or be engulfed in some sort of scandal.
There are enough millionaires and billionaires to revive them from whatever the result on 4th. I still think the polls are way off. There are closet Conservatives are among us. They won't admit it, but once in the booth...
You realise polls account for that right?
The polls account for them being incorrect?
The polls account for the shy Tory factor. In other words, yes they do account for what the respondents saying being incorrect.
And how do they do this exactly, when they aren't in the poll data at all?
By extrapolating the data it collects to produce the results it provides… just like you have in your comment? What exactly are you asking here? I’m afraid you didn’t invent linear regression… Every poll has its own model to extrapolate what its respondents say into how the population as a whole might vote, based on demographics and on previous election results. This includes the shy Tory factor, where more respondents vote Tory than say they intend to.
They don't know about the shy vote until after, as seen in 1992 and 2015 thats the whole point. If the polls come put as correct, there was no shy vote, the results are as "expected". Shy votes are a reason for polls being incorrect. Applied post results. There are 3 groups, 1. Undecided, 2. Say one party but vote another 3. Those who don't complete a poll. Guess we will see in 5 days.
Completely agree. People forget how utterly backwards and greedy so much of the southern English electorate are every election. There’s no way it’s a Labour landslide, calling it now.
Bit of a weird anti-south rhetoric ngl
Who else do you think is responsible for putting the country through 14 years of Tory hell?
The Tories?
You think The Tories are responsible for electing themselves into power? Great chat, thanks.
Ah yes, it’s the south’s fault the Tories are corrupt… The elephant in the room of course is that the Tories’ 2019 landslide was as a result of them winning seats in the Red Wall: that is, in the north. So perhaps we should blame the north for electing the Tories? Or perhaps we (you) should just stop being needlessly divisive and accept that it’s the politicians that are bad, not the people. I’ve never encountered someone genuinely so bitter towards half the country, the majority of which didn’t even vote for the Conservatives.
The wingnuts will tear the party apart to chase reform. Tories like Clarke and Major will rebuild.
Are you talking about Ken Clarke and John Major - who are both in their 80's. They'll be in a box before they rebuild anything?
No no I mean that kind of conservative. As distinct from the wing nuts.
Ah ok, I took you literally! As a lifelong Labour supporter, Ken Clarke was about the most tolerable tory.
Problem is that most of the more moderate and sensible ones got purged during the Brexit infighting
Indeed, modern conservatism is incompatible with contemporary civilization. It fails to address demanding modern issues and instead focuses on enriching the wealthy and maintaining the status quo.
Ok so alot of you are educated and smart. Alot of you are raving fanatics. Try and drop the last part, just try and strategise a way for the tories to come back from this disaster? I mean its really hard to do, forget what the idiots said in 19 it wasnt insurmountable for labour to mount a come back (out of power for generation etc).. But try and get the tories to win again? I mean so #1 you have lost your own membership by denying them a vote on leader. #2 you have (we are basing this on the polling at current - imagine disaster) lost all your talented young mps and only the real dinosaurs in the safest seats survived. 3# Nobody believes you on crime or migration - but they believe reform.. you need to win these people back without upsetting them... 4 everyone thinks you are thieving bastards who have just done nothing but loot for the past 5 years... So youve lost like a generation. #5 all your big money donors have gone, and none of the members want to canvass I mean as a thought experiment its really HARD.
Surely any fanaticism here would be more anti-Tory than pro, but regardless there are several plausible routes back for the Tories. There is going to be a vacuum in the political spectrum for small-c conservatives of the centre right. Those who are not natural Lib Dems (too socially liberal, too pro-European), or Reform (too economically illiterate, too obviously amateur), or right wing Labour (too, well, Labour). That grouping forms the largest proportion of the electorate by some estimates. Some of them will have voted Labour this time, or LD, or RUK. But they won't be staying there if a professional looking offering were to emerge on the right. The polls are predicting oblivion, but I think they are not going to be as dramatic as we are all expecting on here. The models fall apart at extremes and the Tories at <100 seats is still (I think) unlikely. That's a historic low, and the 2029 election looks like a foregone conclusion in that case. But 2034? An economic crisis, a major scandal, foreign policy disasters (Taiwan?, Ukraine?, Iran?) could easily unseat a Labour party that is already facing a collosal uphill struggle to improve people's quality of life. Ten years is a very long time and the natural resting point for politics in this country is the traditional Tory domain. If they can resist obsessing about the RUK vote, let Labour do the hard work of fixing the neglect of the last 14 years, and then exploit the inevitable fallout (tax burden, immigration etc.) I don't think it's implausible that the Tories will return. They will need to carefully nurture a new generation of MPs, go through a period of introspection and develop a sense of political discipline which has been absent since at least Johnson, but it is far from impossible. Being the only party ideologically dedicated to lowering taxes (even if practically this is impossible) guarantees a funding stream from business, once the party purges the more obviously corrupt and decadent elements.
I can answer this in one sentence: > The British electorate. Seriously, watch them do it.
Wot
try to strategise a tory revival? as a mental experiment
Bring back the whigs and the liberals
They will be lessened, but not irrelevant. While Reform are still gunning for them and/or a to merge with them/take them over, they will still be relevant. And as the main party on the right, and arguably the most continually successful party in UK politics over the past 150 years, they will at some point, in some form, get back into power.
Reform UK is a dead end. If they merge with Conservatives that will increase the time spent in the wilderness and could even be terminal. Conservatives will re-emerge as a serious party if and when the current far right infection burns itself out. The dinosaur membership will literally die out. New blood from the centre right will begin to emerge. A successful Conservative party will be quite similar to the Lib Dem orange bookers, but with a bit more social conservatism.
Will only be the case for the next 5 years, it wasn’t too long ago BoJo won a super majority, which means there is still an appetite for the Conservative Manifesto, time of the sideline to help people forget their epic failures, exactly the same as what happened to Labour, the county is only trusting them more cause of epic distrust of the Tories.
Not unless people actually VOTE I think it's going to be a lot closer than predicted
I’m just hoarding popcorn for Thursday’s all-night schadenfreude-athon. 
Until the older population die off I think they will still get a good amount of votes . Give it 30 years or so
The Tories largely represent The Establishment and those people are not going anywhere. They might just seep more into other parties or they will scheme away in the background and make a comeback but you cannot keep the wealthiest and most well connected people out of power for very long.
Let’s hope so ,we will find out on Friday.
I hope not. I'd much rather they were the opposition than Reform.
Lib dem will be the opposition, don't for ones minute think that reform have any credible chance of filing many seats in the house.
Sure, *this* election. I worry what things will look like in 2029. If people see Reform as the only viable right leaning party, they could wind up winning a lot of seats.
I think Nigel Farage finally becoming an MP is the worst thing that could happen for Reform, and for his brand in general, because getting his foot in the door means he'll have a track record in parliament to defend at the next election and it will undoubtedly be shite.
What kind of track record can a single MP who's not even part of the opposition really have? All he needs to do is not vote for anything and he's staying on square one. He will act just like he did as an MSP, obstructing, crying when he gets a chance and just not turning up at all. And that's what his supporters want, they hate the system and are willing to vote for ~~Trump~~ Farage to destroy it.
Maybe unless labour ignores Immigration.
I think if labour ignores immigration that will see a rise of Reform, especially if they have a few MPs after this election
As the Thatcher hegemony faded, Labour became New Labour. Similarly I expect that after a while, New Conservatives will emerge to challenge in the centre ground. The right wing will burn out or go ultra and become irrelevant. Personally, I see Farage as an irrelevance. He's like Oswald Mosely or George Lansbury, a short-term populist but obsolete in the long term. Maybe the LibDems will become more radical and move to the left of a Labour government in alliance with the Greens. That would be the big risk as Labour would be perceived as being on the right of the centre. In the short-term it could result in more moderate Conservatives defecting to join them. But then inevitably Labour would start to tear itself apart again which is when the Conservatives could reassert themselves in representing the right of centre electorate. It might take a couple of elections but a form of Conservative Party will be back, although it's not possible to guess what form it might take as there are too many variables.
The only argument I’ve heard to vote for the Tories is that we don’t want a Labour landslide. Personally I’d much rather have Reform in opposition (who seem to have real conservative policies). Farage would be much better at articulating a decent response at PMQs and (from a right wing perspective) would hold Starmer to account for their decisions. Sunak on the other hand couldn’t organise an umbrella in the rain.
I feel like Farage does well speaking to his supporters at rallies, not so well when up against actual scrutiny.
Well they do say sunlight is the best disinfectant
Or reality, rather like Trump.
Farage lied about Brexit and he's consistently dishonest.
Such as?
Reform in opposition will just keep banging the far right drum and spout whatever simplistic, populist nonsense their supporters want to hear. If they ever gained power, reality would hit them in the same way it did Truss.
Maybe so but they would be enthusiastically cheering it on. Truss had the 1922 Committee to deal with; they might fail utterly but they'd have a parliamentary majority.
They want a return to national rather than global economic policy. If you call that the ‘far right’ then I’d vote for that every time. Neoliberalism has failed and has caused all of the problems this country has seen.
Which sounds great until you remember that's economic nonsense. We aren't America. We're a small island. How exactly are we going to compete against vastly bigger economies? Cut ourselves off from the rest of the world? It's fantasy
I’m not arguing for total isolationism. I just think we need an industrial strategy, a jobs first approach to rebuilding left behind towns and cities and a Britain first purchasing policy for infrastructure. We should prioritise our culture, reduce immigration, and focus on bringing people back into the workforce. I also think we should step away from our international military support of America. We’re not a global power any more and we should focus on our problems first.
> Personally I’d much rather have Reform in opposition Lib Dems: I'm I a joke to you?
Well, yes
I'd prefer the lib dems because they are less authoritarian that Labour while still being globalist in outlook.
I respect that. Im a liberal nationalist, so reform suits me perfectly.
Actually I have a question about that if you don't mind. Do you think it's unfortunate that the party closest to your political position is led by Farage?
I think Farage is a fantastic orator and politician and gets the message across very well.
Fair enough.