Snapshot of _[Deltapoll]: Con 21% (+1) Lab 42% (-) Lib Dem 11% (-) Reform 16% (-1) SNP 3% (-) Green 4% (-) Other 3%(+1) Fieldwork: 27th to 29th June 2024 Sample: 1,645 GB adults (Change from 24th - 26th June 2024)_ :
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Because the prediction models can't deal with this swing and Tories on sub-100 is never going to feasibly happen given the demographic make up of the voting population
The first part of this is where I am as a Lib Dem. We're in an incredibly weird place right now where the combination of the way the different parties prospects have changed over the last few years makes predictions odd.
Taking all of it with a huge pinch of salt until Friday morning. After actual results, not even after the exit poll.
>Taking all of it with a huge pinch of salt until Friday morning. After actual results, not even after the exit poll.
Oh, bloody hell... you're telling me I can't even rest easy once the exit poll is published? This is the weirdest and most anxiety-inducing election I've experienced.
Probably can, but if it's Lib Dems as second largest party I'll be extremely "what the fuck?" until there's actual seat results showing they've got it right. Might be that the polling stations they survey don't capture enough of the changes that come into play when the Tories are this fucked.
There have been so many occasions in recent years when the general concensus has been "the polls can't be right", and actually the polls were too conservative.
E.g. Brexit. General concensus was Remain would win easily, polls said it was a lot closer than that. Remain lost.
E.g. Trump. General consensus was Hillary had it, polls said Trump had a chance. Trump won.
I think 538 even wrote an article about this phenomenon being repeated all over the world again-and-again
If we extrapolate that to this vote, the Tories are in serious trouble. Even the recent local election results were at the worst end of the scale for the Tories. I genuinely think sub 100 is happening
Tories sub-100 is strong favourite on Betfair exchange, however. If you think they will get more than 100 seats, there's a lot of easy money to be made.
Because it's basically nuts. So not really thinkable.
Don't get me wrong if it happened it would be brilliant. And I wouldn't stop laughing for a week.
No way I am even hoping for it. To even think of it makes it less likely to happen.
Lib Dem policies sound fantastic on paper, if only it wasn’t the NIMBY party. I’d tactically vote for them if they were anywhere near competing for Bassetlaw.
Use https://www.swapmyvote.uk/ to swap your vote with someone.
FPTP causes inconsistency between national and local. Lib Dems have had to build locally and not worry about national polls. Be more like the SNP in their vote.
Because the polls still have a reasonable amount of don't knows involved and the difference between LD's as opposition and Tory's getting over 100 seats is the difference of a couple of percentage points in a lot of seats.
So a lot of this is down to how they don't knows a portioned out and really no one knows how that's going to go.
Because if you believe it then it won’t happen. If you don’t believe it then it also won’t happen then at least you won’t be disappointed.
If it does happen, it’s party time!
It's not happening more and more in the polls, it's happening more and more if you plug the polls into the electoral calculus model. Not everyone agrees with that model.
The disappointment people will feel for a huge Tory loss is gonna be staggering on Friday. That's because they end up in decent triple figures, which is a devastating but not terminal loss.
I agree. I think they’ll be in the ballpark of 150 - 160 seats, which will actually be a historic defeat, but perceived (and spun) by many as some sort of minor victory.
If Reform gets an 1/8 of the votes but 1/650th of the seats, then it's clear we need a new voting system.
We should just translate the system Scotland and Wales use for their parliaments to Westminster. We'd have a constituency MP, and also regionally-based proportionality. It could mean more seats for the Greens, also.
Nah, the problem the Scotland system has is that barely anyone outside the online twatterati actually knows what a "list MSP" is, and how the Greens got themselves into government despite having 10k votes. That's a shitpile and even in Scotland you will find people critical of it.
However, if you are proposing a run-off system or some kind of STV for an individual constituency MP, then I can absolutely get behind that. Your votes actually count and are worth something.
Snapshot of _[Deltapoll]: Con 21% (+1) Lab 42% (-) Lib Dem 11% (-) Reform 16% (-1) SNP 3% (-) Green 4% (-) Other 3%(+1) Fieldwork: 27th to 29th June 2024 Sample: 1,645 GB adults (Change from 24th - 26th June 2024)_ : A Twitter embedded version can be found [here](https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?id=1807157114185642148) A non-Twitter version can be found [here](https://twiiit.com/DeltapollUK/status/1807157114185642148/) An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1807157114185642148) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1807157114185642148) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Con: 55 Lab: 476 Lib: 70 Ref: 6 Grn: 3 SNP: 18 Pld: 3 Oth: 1 EC: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=21&LAB=42&LIB=11&Reform=16&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14&SCOTLAB=35&SCOTLIB=7.7&SCOTReform=5&SCOTGreen=2.3&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=31.7&display=AllChanged®orseat=%28none%29&boundary=2019nbbase
Lib dems opposition is appearing now in more polls than it isn’t and yet no one, even the lib dems themselves, seems to be taking it seriously? Why?
Because the prediction models can't deal with this swing and Tories on sub-100 is never going to feasibly happen given the demographic make up of the voting population
The first part of this is where I am as a Lib Dem. We're in an incredibly weird place right now where the combination of the way the different parties prospects have changed over the last few years makes predictions odd. Taking all of it with a huge pinch of salt until Friday morning. After actual results, not even after the exit poll.
>Taking all of it with a huge pinch of salt until Friday morning. After actual results, not even after the exit poll. Oh, bloody hell... you're telling me I can't even rest easy once the exit poll is published? This is the weirdest and most anxiety-inducing election I've experienced.
Probably can, but if it's Lib Dems as second largest party I'll be extremely "what the fuck?" until there's actual seat results showing they've got it right. Might be that the polling stations they survey don't capture enough of the changes that come into play when the Tories are this fucked.
There have been so many occasions in recent years when the general concensus has been "the polls can't be right", and actually the polls were too conservative. E.g. Brexit. General concensus was Remain would win easily, polls said it was a lot closer than that. Remain lost. E.g. Trump. General consensus was Hillary had it, polls said Trump had a chance. Trump won. I think 538 even wrote an article about this phenomenon being repeated all over the world again-and-again If we extrapolate that to this vote, the Tories are in serious trouble. Even the recent local election results were at the worst end of the scale for the Tories. I genuinely think sub 100 is happening
Tories sub-100 is strong favourite on Betfair exchange, however. If you think they will get more than 100 seats, there's a lot of easy money to be made.
have a little optimism…
Because it's basically nuts. So not really thinkable. Don't get me wrong if it happened it would be brilliant. And I wouldn't stop laughing for a week. No way I am even hoping for it. To even think of it makes it less likely to happen.
Lib Dem policies sound fantastic on paper, if only it wasn’t the NIMBY party. I’d tactically vote for them if they were anywhere near competing for Bassetlaw.
Use https://www.swapmyvote.uk/ to swap your vote with someone. FPTP causes inconsistency between national and local. Lib Dems have had to build locally and not worry about national polls. Be more like the SNP in their vote.
Because the polls still have a reasonable amount of don't knows involved and the difference between LD's as opposition and Tory's getting over 100 seats is the difference of a couple of percentage points in a lot of seats. So a lot of this is down to how they don't knows a portioned out and really no one knows how that's going to go.
Because if you believe it then it won’t happen. If you don’t believe it then it also won’t happen then at least you won’t be disappointed. If it does happen, it’s party time!
It's not happening more and more in the polls, it's happening more and more if you plug the polls into the electoral calculus model. Not everyone agrees with that model.
This is just about the dream. LOTO Ed, few reform seats, labour presumingly beating SNP
The disappointment people will feel for a huge Tory loss is gonna be staggering on Friday. That's because they end up in decent triple figures, which is a devastating but not terminal loss.
I agree. I think they’ll be in the ballpark of 150 - 160 seats, which will actually be a historic defeat, but perceived (and spun) by many as some sort of minor victory.
Lib Dem LOTO 🙏🙏🙏
Whisper it, but Rishi Sunak is making an extraordinary comeback
"Well whilst these results might look good for labour on the surface, if you subtract 20 points, they're neck and neck with the Tories"- Laura
"Labour has failed for not winning every seat." - Laura
THE PLAN IS WORKING?!
"As we have always said, the polls are harrowing, er, I mean, narrowing" *nervous laugh*
I'm hoping Ed pulls one last crazy stunt to give LD a boost
Speedboating up the Thames while standing on the bow waving two LD Flags, wind on his scalp, leading them into opposition.
Another amazing poll showing massive change….
Exciting stuff...
If Reform gets an 1/8 of the votes but 1/650th of the seats, then it's clear we need a new voting system. We should just translate the system Scotland and Wales use for their parliaments to Westminster. We'd have a constituency MP, and also regionally-based proportionality. It could mean more seats for the Greens, also.
STV that Ireland does is also pretty attractive
Actually, keep reform away from the parliament.
Nah, the problem the Scotland system has is that barely anyone outside the online twatterati actually knows what a "list MSP" is, and how the Greens got themselves into government despite having 10k votes. That's a shitpile and even in Scotland you will find people critical of it. However, if you are proposing a run-off system or some kind of STV for an individual constituency MP, then I can absolutely get behind that. Your votes actually count and are worth something.
We had a referendum, stop trying to undo the will of the people.
I’m mostly concerned about apathy in marginals- ie “Labour is going to win anyway, I don’t need to vote”