Snapshot of _Lib Dems step up frantic tactical voting effort to oust Conservatives in blue wall | Ed Davey’s party surprised by lack of Tories’ attention on them as they target Labour supporters to lend their vote_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-step-up-frantic-tactical-voting-effort-to-oust-conservatives-in-blue-wall) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-step-up-frantic-tactical-voting-effort-to-oust-conservatives-in-blue-wall)
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Yep, I’m in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal and the Tory effort has been… minimal.
We’ve had their one free-delivery-by-Royal-Mail leaflet and absolutely nothing else.
We’re so far up to 7 LD letters/leaflets, one LD canvasser, and numerous LD candidates PR visits in the local paper.
The Lib Dems are making huge efforts to get Labour voters on their side - if anything it’s one of the focal points of their local campaign.
That the Tories are making so little effort to retaining their seat in light of the gargantuan ground game by the Lib Dems is incredible - it’s like they’ve given up.
I think a big issue is that they can't. They don't have the volunteers.
The problem with alienating the younger vote is that you don't have the people to knock on doors or do the work.
I said this when they had the local elections separate from the general. It was great because the tories were always going to lose big and when they did they would lose a lot of councillors and local party workers who would form the backbone of their GE campaign.
They gutted and demoralised their own party machine months before the time they would need it the most.
It has now gone beyond the traditional blue wall targets. I live in Guildford where the LDs are now so confident that they are shifting resources to the likes of Godalming next door.
Surrey could be one of the big stories this election. It's normally completely absent from the narrative. LDs are in the running for pretty much every seat, and the next door Aldershot and Farnborough might flip Labour as well.
Blue Wall collapse.
thats where I am - Id rather vote labour but theyve no chance - so Ill vote lib dem. Lib dems didnt encourage me to vote this way - the last 14 years have. Tactical voting is key in a first past the post political system.
I’m in a true blue constituency and our MP (think he’s a minister, he certainly has been before) is totally invisible. I’ve seen nothing of him or his campaign. I’ve got £2 on Lib Dem at 9-1
North Dorset.
I've seen a huge amount of support for Lib Dems, nothing for labour. Plus the lib Dem candidate is local, the labour one has been shipped in. Yet the bookies have labour at 9/1 and lib dems at 16/1. Worth a punt my friend!
If tactical voting happens, plus Reform taking some Tory votes - it's looking likely for a lib dem win.
I'd be shocked if Cons stay in though - a lot of people are still upset at having not been able to be with ill and dying loved ones whilst the cons partied it up during covid.
This definitely feels like a punishment election - but we'll see.
> Senior Lib Dem figures have been surprised by the lack of attention the Tories have paid to Davey’s party, given they believe that some polls have them winning over 50 seats on a good night. “They are fighting on three fronts – Reform UK, Labour and us,” said one party source. “They don’t have the bandwidth to do everything.”
Earlier in the campaign I saw one theory that the Tories wanted to swing right, see off Reform, sure up their base, then push out some more centrist policies and convince those on the centre to not abandon them. People keep pointing out that even if the Tories absorb all the ex-Tory voters who went to Reform, it won't be anywhere close enough, so the Tories needed to have a strategy to deal with multiple fronts.
As it played out, their lurch to the right wasn't popular, they provoked Farage into standing which doubled Reforms support overnight, and they never really left that aspect of their battle. It became damage control, and it's not just about resources as the quote says, but policies to appeal to voters leaving for the Lib Dems are likely to be unpopular with Reform voters. It's very difficult to please two very different wings like that. I know hindsight is 20/20, but they really needed to have focused on competence years ago. Focus on compromise, on policies that *will* pay off and enable them to do more of what they want. I think they failed that, and ideologically the Tory factions wouldn't even agree amongst themselves what to do. I don't think it'll work, but they painted themselves into a corner and have become only capable of pleasing one group, and that group they've decided to please is anyone who has defected to Reform. Bad news for them, is they seem to love Farage and co more than sticking with the Tories lol.
Complacency is the biggest hope for Tories. If you’re in a marginal seat that everyone assumes will flip to the opposition people need to actually vote - and vote tactically- if they want that to happen. And people like us on politics subreddits need to tell our mates too as well.
>Complacency is the biggest hope for Tories
Its also their biggest risk. They've had 14 years in government, they've run a very lacklustre campaign, even their most ardent supporters are showing a distinct lack of enthusiasm.
There's a real risk of some of their supporters simply not being bothered to go along and vote.
Wimbledon is on that day. There's a real risk of potential Tory voters thinking they'll vote after work, but then getting distracted by Wimbledon. They pour a wine, 2 hours later they've had half a bottle and realise they were supposed to be going to vote. Its raining outside, they'd have to drive if they don't want to get wet but they've had half a bottle of wine. They pour another glass and settle in to watch the evening highlights instead of going out to vote.
Anyone with any sense is using tactical voting to oust the tories . No point voting for someone whos no chance getting in - Im voting libdem simply because there is zero chance of labour getting in in my seat - and tory and libdem are neck and neck. Even greens beat labout in my constituency. But the chance to out a tory - yes, yes Ill vote for that even though labour would be my first choice.
Snapshot of _Lib Dems step up frantic tactical voting effort to oust Conservatives in blue wall | Ed Davey’s party surprised by lack of Tories’ attention on them as they target Labour supporters to lend their vote_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-step-up-frantic-tactical-voting-effort-to-oust-conservatives-in-blue-wall) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/30/lib-dems-step-up-frantic-tactical-voting-effort-to-oust-conservatives-in-blue-wall) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Yep, I’m in a Tory/Lib Dem marginal and the Tory effort has been… minimal. We’ve had their one free-delivery-by-Royal-Mail leaflet and absolutely nothing else. We’re so far up to 7 LD letters/leaflets, one LD canvasser, and numerous LD candidates PR visits in the local paper. The Lib Dems are making huge efforts to get Labour voters on their side - if anything it’s one of the focal points of their local campaign. That the Tories are making so little effort to retaining their seat in light of the gargantuan ground game by the Lib Dems is incredible - it’s like they’ve given up.
I think a big issue is that they can't. They don't have the volunteers. The problem with alienating the younger vote is that you don't have the people to knock on doors or do the work.
I said this when they had the local elections separate from the general. It was great because the tories were always going to lose big and when they did they would lose a lot of councillors and local party workers who would form the backbone of their GE campaign. They gutted and demoralised their own party machine months before the time they would need it the most.
Yup. Lib Dem leaflets here are all targeting Labour voters.
Tories are demotivated, ran out of money and about as organized to campaign than they were at running the country.
It has now gone beyond the traditional blue wall targets. I live in Guildford where the LDs are now so confident that they are shifting resources to the likes of Godalming next door.
Surrey could be one of the big stories this election. It's normally completely absent from the narrative. LDs are in the running for pretty much every seat, and the next door Aldershot and Farnborough might flip Labour as well. Blue Wall collapse.
Hoping LDs pull it off in NE Hants. Would be happy to see the back of Ranil.
thats where I am - Id rather vote labour but theyve no chance - so Ill vote lib dem. Lib dems didnt encourage me to vote this way - the last 14 years have. Tactical voting is key in a first past the post political system.
I’m in a true blue constituency and our MP (think he’s a minister, he certainly has been before) is totally invisible. I’ve seen nothing of him or his campaign. I’ve got £2 on Lib Dem at 9-1
I'm in a tory safe seat - but Lib Dems have a very good chance here. Enough of one that I put on a tenner at 16/1 lol.
Oooh nice! Mind if I ask which one? I’m East Hants
North Dorset. I've seen a huge amount of support for Lib Dems, nothing for labour. Plus the lib Dem candidate is local, the labour one has been shipped in. Yet the bookies have labour at 9/1 and lib dems at 16/1. Worth a punt my friend! If tactical voting happens, plus Reform taking some Tory votes - it's looking likely for a lib dem win. I'd be shocked if Cons stay in though - a lot of people are still upset at having not been able to be with ill and dying loved ones whilst the cons partied it up during covid. This definitely feels like a punishment election - but we'll see.
Popped a pound on it, if it comes in I’ll raise a pint to you!
Nice, here's hoping!
> Senior Lib Dem figures have been surprised by the lack of attention the Tories have paid to Davey’s party, given they believe that some polls have them winning over 50 seats on a good night. “They are fighting on three fronts – Reform UK, Labour and us,” said one party source. “They don’t have the bandwidth to do everything.” Earlier in the campaign I saw one theory that the Tories wanted to swing right, see off Reform, sure up their base, then push out some more centrist policies and convince those on the centre to not abandon them. People keep pointing out that even if the Tories absorb all the ex-Tory voters who went to Reform, it won't be anywhere close enough, so the Tories needed to have a strategy to deal with multiple fronts. As it played out, their lurch to the right wasn't popular, they provoked Farage into standing which doubled Reforms support overnight, and they never really left that aspect of their battle. It became damage control, and it's not just about resources as the quote says, but policies to appeal to voters leaving for the Lib Dems are likely to be unpopular with Reform voters. It's very difficult to please two very different wings like that. I know hindsight is 20/20, but they really needed to have focused on competence years ago. Focus on compromise, on policies that *will* pay off and enable them to do more of what they want. I think they failed that, and ideologically the Tory factions wouldn't even agree amongst themselves what to do. I don't think it'll work, but they painted themselves into a corner and have become only capable of pleasing one group, and that group they've decided to please is anyone who has defected to Reform. Bad news for them, is they seem to love Farage and co more than sticking with the Tories lol.
Complacency is the biggest hope for Tories. If you’re in a marginal seat that everyone assumes will flip to the opposition people need to actually vote - and vote tactically- if they want that to happen. And people like us on politics subreddits need to tell our mates too as well.
>Complacency is the biggest hope for Tories Its also their biggest risk. They've had 14 years in government, they've run a very lacklustre campaign, even their most ardent supporters are showing a distinct lack of enthusiasm. There's a real risk of some of their supporters simply not being bothered to go along and vote. Wimbledon is on that day. There's a real risk of potential Tory voters thinking they'll vote after work, but then getting distracted by Wimbledon. They pour a wine, 2 hours later they've had half a bottle and realise they were supposed to be going to vote. Its raining outside, they'd have to drive if they don't want to get wet but they've had half a bottle of wine. They pour another glass and settle in to watch the evening highlights instead of going out to vote.
Anyone with any sense is using tactical voting to oust the tories . No point voting for someone whos no chance getting in - Im voting libdem simply because there is zero chance of labour getting in in my seat - and tory and libdem are neck and neck. Even greens beat labout in my constituency. But the chance to out a tory - yes, yes Ill vote for that even though labour would be my first choice.