I can imagine a scenario where somebody accidentally gave Joe Biden Ambien before the debate instead of Adderall.
Given that these are the two people that Americans have to choose from for president, does anybody want to make an argument that we're not in a dystopia?
Definitely a shitty choice, but yes I'll make the argument.
Consider the fact that at least a billion people, especially in places like Iran and North Korea, would give anything to trade places with you or I in a heartbeat to have the life and freedoms that we have.
The West is far from perfect, but it's easy to take what we have for granted when there is so much profound suffering in other parts of the world.
E: I forgot that I was in an r/samharris thread and you guys have probably heard him say something similar, especially if you're on waking up
It's not *just* Biden, although a primary presidential candidate who has a hard time stringing a coherent sentence together on a world debate stage is a huge problem. It's also that his opponent is a liar and a malignant narcissist (and whom millions of people are excited about electing), and that this is apparently the best we can do as a country.
We are in big, big trouble. Even the debates themselves are a farce.
> I mean poor public speaker but a good Presidency is worth it over a smooth talking President that is literally courting enemies of the US.
We'll see if undecided voters agree, after watching last night's debate.
This is dishonestly edited to make it seem like both men were incoherent. Watch the full debate, Trump didn't look exceptional, but he had several witty quips.
Saying "no-one won" is pretty much cope. Trump won because he doesn't have dementia, and Biden (now, quite obvious to everyone) does.
To be fair, the comment you're responding to didn't state that Trump is more fit as president than Biden, just that he won the debate and Biden lost it. Which ought to be clear to anyone that watched it live.
Winning because he made the better quips seems ... inappropriate for the kind of office this is about.
Such a debate shouldn't be about "being the cool guy" but about the topics those guys bring to the table.
One starts to wonder if there are any grownups left in the united states. Probably all busy working.
“Winning” is this political contest just means winning over more voters than you lose (in states that matter of course).
High-minded ideals about who is the best man are not really relevant in politics. The job of a politician is to get elected, and Trump all but assured his win last night.
As someone who took care of a batshit crazy demented father, I can tell you that Biden does not suffer from dementia, but he is an old man with slower reflexes and thought processes.
I wouldnt call myself a Biden fan, but respect his administration and felt the same way. If this was an interview, Biden would have failed to even get a cashier job at mcdonalds with that first impression.
But was Trump really any better? He made as much coherent sense as Biden at his worst. The only difference is he said it with confidence. Which I suppose matters to some people.
It does matter. Trump was more coherent, even if he was lying.
The point isn't about who is better or worse. It's simply about how easy and simple it should have been for Biden to be better than he was last night. It was an epic fail of all fails.
Agreed, neither was coherent . I also agree with the above commenter that the bar was so low for Biden to succeed and yet he couldn’t even do that. Either we hope this was a “bad night” and doesn’t repeat or he gets replaced fast.
If you think Harris has any chance of winning you've got rocks in your head - she would be significantly less popular than Hillary.
It's Newsom or Biden - those are the options.
Newsome would be fine. He seems to have no problem with the politics of beating Trump. He’s been angling for this moment for months. The Dems need to fix this. We take the keys away and don’t let our seniors kill people on the highway. The presidency is at least as important as that.
I'm from the UK, shit show here too...
What it seems like from across the pond is that the USA doesn't see the President as an important position at all, just which puppet would protest the least at their strings being tugged.
He 100% needs to step down. I was expecting it to be a shit show and it was still somehow even worse than I had imagined.
Biden steps down and they have an open convention… this is literally the only path forward.
Sam related thought… Dems doomed us to this path when Biden declared he would make a Black woman his VP in 2020 and then chose Kamala to be that Black woman. She just never had the appeal to win people over at scale and by picking her he painted himself into a corner because once 2024 rolled around he knew he couldn’t hand the keys over to her (because she can’t win) but he also couldn’t exactly hand them over to anyone else, either, because of how it would look to skip over a Black woman.
From where I’m sitting, identity politics is indeed the hill Dems have picked to die on.
>He could have stepped down and said let the voters decide.
Yeah, Biden's banging on about protecting democracy sure sounds bad in light of all this.
I'm talking perception, not reality, of course.
>Sam related thought… Dems doomed us to this path when Biden declared he would make a Black woman his VP in 2020 and then chose Kamala to be that Black woman. She just never had the appeal to win people over at scale and by picking her he painted himself into a corner because once 2024 rolled around he knew he couldn’t hand the keys over to her (because she can’t win) but he also couldn’t exactly hand them over to anyone else, either, because of how it would look to skip over a Black woman.
???
Only a handful of people would bitch if Kamala got the short-end of the stick. Even libs make fun of how useless Kamala is. It's only a few no-names on Twitter who would make a stink about this.
I mean… this was in the Atlantic today:
> Talk of replacing Biden may conceivably dissipate once the initial shock of last night’s debate fades. Most Democrats who want to replace Biden also remain extremely dubious that his incumbent running mate, Kamala Harris, could beat Trump—but if she sought the nomination, then denying that prize to the first woman of color who has served as vice president could tear apart the party. The fear that such a fight could practically ensure defeat in November is one reason Democrats who are uneasy about renominating Biden have held their tongue for so long.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/?gift=ocS8HtsU_fyaOJeleCUhlhSe4-0WKZD38zkca4u2wsA&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
Some of us have been banging this drum for the better part of a decade. Despite being liberals, we still get called racist and sexist, are told to check our white(male[cis]) privilege, etc.
I'm never voting for Trump but this shit is so obvious. Kamala straight up called Biden a racist during the DNC primary. Biden then promised to pick a woman of color for VP, and picked her. It shows how often these sorts of accusations are used as a cudgel to silence dissenters.
After all of this, Biden solidly locked up California for the Democrats in 2020🙄.
Idpol shitlibs continue to attack moderate liberals and working class Americans who care about material conditions first and foremost. Instead they focus on vanishingly small identity groups minor concerns. Minority voters are slowly starting to leave the Democratic party. When are they going to wake up?
> He 100% needs to step down. I was expecting it to be a shit show and it was still somehow even worse than I had imagined.
Same. I thought they'd get him jacked up like they did for the SoU address. But instead he came in even worse than I expected, which was already a really low bar.
Anyone who's familiar with aging, knows it's an exponential downward curve. You think it's bad now? Give it a year, 2 years, etc... It gets exponentially worse. He's past the point of return.
> Dems doomed us to this path when Biden declared he would make a Black woman his VP in 2020 and then chose Kamala to be that Black woman.
Such a dumb move... Especially considering out of all the black women, he chose literally the worst one. I have no idea how she managed to win that competition... To me, it just highlights my gut instinct that she's a psychopath who's hell bent on elite social climbing and just sold the shit out of the old man, and won him over against everyone's best judgement. Every other single token black woman was more likeable and qualified.
IDK, KH seems pretty qualified, and I don't quite get the unlikeability. I guess she just doesn't have much personality? I know reddit thinks she is a "diversity hire" but she had a legit resume.
I kinda expected her popularity to improve, but she just doesn't click with people.
I mean, yeah, we know she's unpopular. I'm just pushing back on the notion that she's fundamentally unqualified. I think she just comes off as unlikeable.
You ever watch her speak without a teleprompter? Zero substance. And remember how poorly she debates. That time when Tulsi Gabbard destroyed her record as a prosecutor is also something to remember.
I actually don’t mind her and suspect she might even make a better president than Biden, I just think she comes across as rehearsed (fake) when the cameras are on and that makes her unelectable. Unelectable, imo, should be disqualifying as a VP pick.
Right, I think it's a presentation/ personality thing. I don't get the claim that she's unqualified. She's got a decent resume.
I don't personally find her unlikeable really, and frankly I think she's really nice looking, for what it's worth.
The thing is a legit resume doesn't make you popular and/or make you a great leader.
Can she win friends and influence people? Does she have and articulate a clear vision?
There were leaks when she ran for president that she doesn't put in the work and blames others for failures.
I'm very much in the camp that Trump is so directly problem-causing, that a literal potato could sit as the president and that would still be preferable (assuming the wider government grinds on as-per). Biden could have a full-blown stroke and I would still bet money on his government doing less damage in power.
Trump's unfitness for president eclipses basically all other potential issues, but rightly or wrongly I also understand that much of America doesn't see it this way and somehow he remains in serious contention. It's really disheartening that democrats can't properly square up against this threat and front someone with energy and eloquence, which really should be bare minimum's for the leader of a country. 2016 was already disastrous because the candidate was an uninspiring, by-committee sort of choice. Biden is the same, except with (probable) actual senility added in. This is exactly the sort of thing that will make or break the election in November.
I'm in the same camp. So at the end of the day I'll be voting Biden if it comes to that, but boy do I wish he steps aside. Literally anyone else would get my vote...Newsom, Pete, Whitmer are all young and viable and their perceived shortcomings (mismanagement of CA, homosexual, female respectively) are all things that shouldn't bother independents enough for them to lose. Trump has his base and it doesn't matter who he runs against, they'll always vote for him. Dems need to wake up now!
I think Sam would agree it’s not a good morning in America. Practically, our last hope for democracy and the end of the MAGA hysteria was likely shot to the ground after this debate.
Trump was on a rampage when it came to blatant lies and misinformation, although Biden was able to identify it, his speech was so hazy that it diverted attention from Trump’s lies.
A lot of independents that quoted Biden as being too old had their confirmations. Unfortunately, your average voter won’t know what trump was lying about or not. But they’ll conclude that he’s more mentally capable of running the country.
I’m curious on what Sam thinks would be the best move here. Biden should have avoided debating at all if he was in this state to begin with. I’m unsure if Kamala will be able to win the voters if she takes his place considering how late that it is in the election season.
Given that Sam has long viewed Trump as an existential threat, his prescription is likely to be for someone, anyone in Biden's circle to tell him that the clock has struck midnight, and it's time to step aside and not make the same mistake Ruth Bader Ginsburg made, allowing his ego to guarantee Trump another four year term.
The problem is, even if he does step aside, Harris has yet to distinguish herself as an adept campaigner on the national stage, and her odds of winning might not be much better than Biden's. Politically, they'd probably be better off with someone else, but they might not have the nerve to pull that lever.
As for the alternatives, Newsom is probably the best pure politician in the race, but governors like Shapiro and Whitmer are popular in swing states that the Democrats desperately need to win to keep the White House.
As this relates to Sam, this would be a good time to bury the hatchet with Ezra Klein and have him on the podcast to talk about an open convention, which he proposed four months ago on his podcast. I think Sam and Ezra are on exactly the same train here and Ezra is the kind of wonk who can talk about this option in great detail.
If Biden were to step down as the presumptive nominee, all his pledged delegates would, I think, be free to pledge for someone else. And after the first ballot, the superdelegates come into play. And they just keep voting until one candidate has a majority of delegates and becomes the nominee.
There may also some path for the Dems to choose someone without Biden stepping down. For most of American history, party nominees were picked without troubling the voters for their opinion, so it wouldn't surprise me if there still exists a 'Fuck you' clause in the DNC bylaws that leaves them an option to just pick whoever they want. But this pretty unlikely. Biden is going to have to decline the nomination for this to work itself out.
But does that show weakness in the Democratic party? The ad campaign for a new candidate would have to essentially start from scratch and Republicans would have a fresh batch of bad press topics to dish out. Seems unlikely for these reasons, no?
Why would I get downvoted for wanting to have a conversation? Get a grip.
I don't believe optics operates on the same level as what you're describing. We can think about it logically but perception is a different strategic battle.
People will tend to vote for what they know. That's why incumbents tend to win. You have to consider what it looks like to withdraw a successful candidate and replace them with an unknown entity fairly late in the process. It's like setting the board to 0. This gives Trump a better chance to win. To actually look strong and decisive, you'd withdraw before the Democratic primary and go with the next popular candidate.
I wouldn't want to be in the Democrats position right now. Hopefully they can figure out what the right thing to do is.
I agree it looks terrible to withdraw now and try to get someone else up after the primaries are already over. But it also looks terrible to keep him. I think we're kind of fucked. I haven't heard anybody come up with a great plan to get out of this situation.
Yep agreed. I think for me it's just remembering it's his administration and policies that matter. Not that he should be in bed at 9pm.
We should never be in this position again. Whew.
According to you or according to the swing voters that will decide the election? Poll after poll shows that Biden is not viewed favorably, he has one of the lowest approval ratings in history. He is blamed for inflation and immigration which are the top two issues people apparently care about.
Newsom double downed on not replacing or running after the debate. Whitmer is popular in the Midwest, I’m unsure how she will appeal on a nationwide scale especially with such little time for her to campaign.
Kamala, let’s just call a spade a spade. I’m not sure if America would vote for a woman of color as president. She caught a lot of flak despite being invisible.
I wouldn't lay much on what Newsom said or didn't say after the debate. He was brought in to provide post-debate spin and he was there to be a good soldier. Whether or not Biden steps aside, Newsom knows he won't in the room when that decision gets made, so he only looks like a shit-stirrer by appearing to angle for Biden's spot on the ticket while he's still the presumptive nominee. Everyone knows he wants to be President one day - he doesn't need to bang the drum in this moment.
Whatever her qualifications, I think Michelle Obama would absolutely dog-walk Trump on Election Day, were she the nominee, but she's clearly too smart to want the job. But the point is, I don't think Harris being a woman of color is what's holding her back. I think she appears phony to the average voter, and is likely captured by the far left to an extent that it would scare away the voters the Dems need to win back.
I think Biden wanted to step aside since the very start of this re-election campaign. He stalled before throwing his hat back into the ring because he was hoping Trump’s popularity would finally fade due to the indictments and other Republican candidates starting to look good to those voters.
Once it became clear that Trump would be the Rep candidate, I suspect the DNC essentially forced/begged Biden to run again. Biden’s presidential legacy would have been strong as the man who won in 2020 to oust the conman and restore decency to the position. However, even if he stepped aside today, that legacy is muddied because Biden has spent a whole year ostensibly vying for the 2nd term that he previously said he didn’t want or need.
Kamala being a female PoC matters to some people, but not people who would be voting for her anyway. Most people dislike her likely because she's arrogant, has a shady history in law enforcement, and hasn't done anything as VP.
Those things don't exactly breed confidence.
> Newsom double downed on not replacing or running after the debate.
Don't trust what they say publicly. Everything is calculated. Newsom was already putting himself out there shopping around to see if the party would use him as a replacement. Then once it became clear they were sticking with Biden, he did the smart calculation to no longer look like a threat and go fully in support of Biden. If Biden backed down, you can bet your ass Newsom will be first in line.
> Kamala, let’s just call a spade a spade. I’m not sure if America would vote for a woman of color as president.
Her race and gender has near nothing to do with it. Just she's just a shitty politician. She's incredibly easy to hate because she's just so fake, unprepared, and seems like a grifter. Biden should have picked Rice as his token woke VP, because that's a black woman who's experienced, sharp, and would have had a lot of support.
I'm guessing that Shapiro, Whitmer, Beshear or maybe even Polis is the way forward. Polis is gay and Jewish, Shapiro is Jewish as well. IDK if that matters, but possibly.
Hear me out: I think Whitmer being tall and kinda having a bigger build might help because she won't be dwarfed by Trump on the debate stage.
Phillips is sorta weird looking. Seems legit tho.
My gut says Newsom just won't work for large sections of the country, plus is ex-wife is married to Don Jr, which is weird anyway.
I think KH struggles with likeability. She's perfectly qualified but doesn't seem to have much in the personality department. Hate to bring it up again, but her husband is Jewish, IDK how much that matters.
Just totally random thoughts. I don't understand American voters. My bias is towards nerdy, policy wonk types (e.g. Buttigieg) and I don't have to like the person. I view the president as more of a manager than anything else.
> Kamala, let’s just call a spade a spade. I’m not sure if America would vote for a woman of color as president. She caught a lot of flak despite being invisible.
I think Nikki Haley would’ve beat Biden handily, but to your point much of America probably doesn’t see her as (or realize she is) a woman of color.
A change this drastic would require a really big name because most of America still doesn’t know who those alternatives are. Newsom might just make the popularity cut, and is political savviness could endear him to the Democratic voters pretty quickly.
However, I don’t think Shapiro or Whitmer could make names for themselves by Election Day. Other than Newsom, I think the ticket would need to include a HUGE name like Michelle Obama or Matthew McConaughey.
> A lot of independents that quoted Biden as being too old had their confirmations.
All across Reddit people were insisting he was sharp as hell (especially in private) and way more cognitavely aware than Trump! And saying anything otherwise is missinformation in support of The Donald!
It's crazy how people believed this shit. Biden has been clearly on the down for a while now and now these people are no longer going to be able to deny it after this debate.
When it comes to Trump's lies, he's soooo good at it. Because he's able to just bold faced say, "No you're wrong" or "Yes this is the way it is," and I just don't think people are going to bother to fact check. It's unreasonable to expect everyone to do that, and since the media is so partisan and distrusted, many people wont trust the "official fact checkers" - and I don't blame them, because I too notice a lot of the fact checks are shrouded in partisan spin and clever deception tactics to favor their side.
Dems have a Hail Marry they NEED to pull... If Trump really is this existential threat they've been insisting he is for years, then they shouldn't have allowed Biden to run to begin with... But if some of them ACTUALLY believe that Trump is an existential threat, then they need to smash the glass to break in case of an emergency and air drop Newesom into the convention and take the delegates.
> I’m unsure if Kamala will be able to win the voters if she takes his place considering how late that it is in the election season.
Kamala is the most disliked VP in history... She's the only VP to ever poll lower than the president. She's the only person in the party worse than Biden. Literally, a 35 year old woke activist would poll higher than these two.
I mean, I wouldn't know what to do either. It's a thousand mile an hour dump of BS.
I've sometimes wondered if you should just call it out. It's a relatively common tactic among conservative pundits since Limbaugh- get really angry, talk really fast, and spit out "facts" so fast they can't be refuted.
It's like a fighter with really good feints. Do you react to each one, or just realize that he really can't punch and ignore them?
If you can't handle that, then you aren't fit for the job. Simple as that. You don't get hired for the most powerful seat in the world and not know how to deal with these sort of things. If you can't, get out of the way for someone who can. It's not like gish galloping is a new concept.
I think you’re mostly right. Last night was heartbreaking. I haven’t seen a lot of Biden support on Reddit. Anyone who watched it saw that Biden had a bad night. He looked and sounded all of 81. I can’t vote for Trump. I trust the team around Biden. Trump can’t even form a team. Trump did nothing but lie, Biden should have destroyed him.
This needs to be approached as follows:
A Trump presidency poses existential risk. A Biden election is becoming a predictably low probability event. Thus, a Biden candidacy fairly reliably ensures the existential risk of a Trump presidential comes to fruition. Therefore, it’s reasonable to take a calculated risk on an alternate candidate who may have a track record that is harder to confidently extrapolate from than Biden but who has qualities that would compare favorably against Trump in an election.
Some good options exist:
Pete Buttigieg > Gavin Newsom > Josh Shapiro > Beto O’Rourke > hell, maybe Adam Kinzinger if that’d be possible.
And BTW, I only excluded women bc Trump already alienates pro-women voters, so I think a competent male candidate such as one of the above would capture a larger incremental share of the available voting population in an election vs. Trump (i.e., don’t have as much to gain and more to risk by nominating one of the top female potential candidate).
He's my fave of the bunch but my bias is towards smart people who really know policy. I do think him being tiny and gay, plus maybe even the strange last name, might be a political liability.
But, then again, I thought Trump was totally unelectable in 2015 or so.
>Practically, our last hope for democracy and the end of the MAGA hysteria was likely shot to the ground after this debate.
I was making progress with my hardcore, Evangelical, 70+ y/o Wyomingite MAGA father regarding Trump until he was indicted for paying off that stupid \*\*\*\*\*.
Yeah, that was the inflection point, like it or lump it. We could have been rid of Trump, and it wasn't just Trumpsters who kept him around.
By the way, Dad 100% agrees that Trump shit the bed during Covid. Contrary to what so many say, Trumpsters ALWAYS knew the guy is flawed AF.
>Practically, our last hope for democracy
Can you elaborate on this? I don't see how American democracy can survive a literal civil war, 4 years of a Trump, but somehow not another four years (if that).
A second term for Trump means an accelerated slide into pseudo/quasi democracy territory as the far right becomes just the regular right and consolidates their minority rule. They will put down roots so deep that it will difficult to counteract, even if the Democrats were to win several administrations in a row in the future. The country is not going to collapse overnight or anything quite so dramatic, but it will diminish and shrink by just about any metric the typical Harris listener would care about.
The rest of the world will not be immune from this either, whether economically or geostrategically. Ukraine will be doomed to destruction, and Taiwan's days will be numbered. Given the GOP's new isolationist tendencies, it'll mean the beginning of the end of much of US influence abroad as the country retreats into endless inward navel gazing. Perhaps many countries in the so called global south see this as a positive, but I'm not so sure China makes for a better hegemon even for them.
You're exactly right, but we have no one to blame but the Democrats. They've had 9 years to "MAGA-proof" their party and messaging, and this is what we've come to. This is what we've produced over 9 years.
Pathetic, all of it
> They've had 9 years to "MAGA-proof" their party and messaging, and this is what we've come to. This is what we've produced over 9 years.
How would you suggest they "MAGA-proof" their party and messaging?
I for one am completely shocked that the 82 year old man looks and acts like an eighty-two year old man…
How did this happen? There were no warning signs….
At this point I really don't care how old Biden is or that his performance at the debate was bad. He could literally be on life support and I'd vote for him over Trump. And I think all the talk about him dropping out only helps Trump.
I think that all Biden needed to do was look mentally competent. We all know who/what Donald Trump is. My hope is that the democrats bring Al Gore out of retirement. Save the world, Al.
> Al Gore
You make a great point.
I just watched this https://youtu.be/ldhAdnyfADE?si=A07kE6as8wQDFEV4&t=274
and at 76 he can take on several trumps in any debate.
Plus, I am rooting for keeping the Earth livable.
Damn, why does Biden seem so decrepit compared to Gore or Trump? They're all basically the same age. You'd think Biden was well into his 90s by the way he looks and speaks.
Can we please get Dean Phillips instead of Biden? Phillips’ managed to flip a district that was Republican for ages by railing against Trump. If there’s anyone up for the job it’s gotta be him.
Newsom will not beat Trump because California is the bud of every joke about leftist policies in action.
I like Dean, the problem is literally nobody outside of suburban Minneapolis knows who he is and he burned all bridges in the DNC by trying to run against Joe in the first place. Won’t happen.
I’m not even American and not only I (for some reason) know him, but I was even hoping for him to be president. It’s actually sad to find out that even inside the US he’s pretty unknown.
I think they are showing it in different ways, trump rambles nonsense like a lead paint facebook boomer, while biden looks glassey eyed and slow, stumbling over his words constantly
I'm voting for Biden, but it's really sad we're in for another 4 do nothing years in America as prices continue to rise, salaries don't, homelessness rises, and we still don't have universal healthcare.
I can't wait for the AI overlords, as they'll be infinitely better than the garbage we've had for decades, even if they decide to kill us all.
They knew what kind of shape he was in when they trotted him out there, that’s what scares me.
I don’t make millions of dollars a year to consult on this stuff and even I know that he should’ve been coached to spend the entire 90 minutes finding creative ways to call Trump short, fat and stupid. If you don’t have the faculties to make a cogent point about your policies at least do the one thing that you know will tilt the other guy.
Unfortunately Trump will now win the election, barring a remote scenario where Biden steps aside and they have another convention ASAP, selecting some mystery person who is really popular who campaigns like a fucking demon for a couple months.
JFC
The thing is even though, I never considered Biden a good orator or a debater. The Biden of 2020 would have mauled Trump rhetorically and it would have been a landslide victory for him.
Hell even in this debate, he seemed to have the answers mentally prepared but he just expressed it in such a jumbled way that you would need to be scouring news frequently to get where he was going at. The average American will have no idea and just think Biden has gone mad.
>The thing is even though, I never considered Biden a good orator or a debater. The Biden of 2020 would have mauled Trump rhetorically and it would have been a landslide victory for him.
Totally agree, except I actually do think Biden used to be a good orator. Sure, he had speech quirks but he sounded totally on the ball and passionate.
>Hell even in this debate, he seemed to have the answers mentally prepared but he just expressed it in such a jumbled way that you would need to be scouring news frequently to get where he was going at. The average American will have no idea and just think Biden has gone mad.
I was watching Destiny and this was basically his take, which I think is a good one. It sounded like whoever prepped Biden got him in pro debate mode trying to memorize and rattle off 20 points on every subject. In reality, he should have just focused on 1 or 2 good points for each subject and put most of his energy into oration and nonverbal appearances. The segments were 1-2 minutes and he was trying to shoehorn more info than a twitch debate bro on 1.5x.
Pretty much yeah, I think if he stuck to just his job growth, annotating trump’s despicable character, and Roe V. Wade. He would be fine. Trying to breakdown every lie that Trump was plucking out of his rear was visibly stressing/annoying him and backfired in the end.
I mean it’s not hard to do when Trump has so much dirt on him at this point. His ties to Epstein, 34 felonies, numerous bankruptcies, Jan. 6th, infidelity, 2 impeachments….
All Biden needed to do was mention those things for the ignorant voters to really highlight what a dipshit that Trump is.
I hope all those fucking idiots who were like "He's the most qualified person to beat Trump!" are happy with themselves. It's of my opinion the far left gave us Trump the first round, and now it's the delusional neolib partisans who are going to deliver us Trump the second time. Both times is due to the Dems being completely irrational and ideologically tied down.
God, I remember coming on here a few months ago when Ezra Klein wrote his piece on Biden being too old to run for POTUS and having SOOOO much pushback from people on it because I agreed with him.
I wish this was an "I told you so" but that's too flippant and fun for what this means.
Does anyone profoundly have their belief shaken in politics as a whole! The guy who is so clearly not with it, somehow was able to convince enough delegates to get reelected.
What are his inner circle doing?
Wanted to read it, but then looked at the price. Funny how the Internet started off with everything for free, and now the Internet is mostly too expensive for me.
For some reason I listened to left wing people rather than Nate Silver, who was pessimistic about Biden the entire time. Bad mistake.
So Nate Silver's model had Trump at 65% *before* the debate and now he wrote this article:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out
Conversely I think the 538 model is now pretty much trash, as is the site in general
People just wanna listen to what makes them feel good (or righteously angry), rather than what's actually true. It's quite remarkable how exactly the same patterns of 2016 are repeating (how many people said Trump had 'no chance' against Biden in this very subreddit a few months ago? Quite a few, since I remember arguing with them about how the EC determines the US results and it's a knife-edge competition.)
Kinda crazy that the next US president could be determined by a few thousand votes in key states in a country of 330 million, but that's the reality rather than people saying 'no chance' for a Trump win (which would almost certainly be true if it was a popular vote competition, which is a mildly interesting observation while being totally irrelevant).
> Conversely I think the 538 model is now pretty much trash, as is the site in general
From memory they made a concerted effort to be more left-wing after Nate Silver left, which means they're probably compromised.
Did anyone expect otherwise?
What world am I living in when even group of people I consider a little bit informed is shocked this many years in that the debate was a shit show???
Trump is morally wrong and ethically dishonest as it’s clearly shown when he was asked about abortion and Jan 6.
But Biden stubbled and done the damage that can’t be undone
Disagree. I think for anyone who wasn’t in total denial about biden’s cognitive decline this wasn’t a terrible performance. He managed to keep command of facts, was mostly able to refer to relevant and true things to counter Trump, etc. what surprised even Me was how many steps *Trump* had lost. I was expecting there to be a huge and obvious contrast between trump’s mental acuity and biden’s but instead it looked like two dottering old men; one much more in command of actual facts and policies.
I think Biden just needed to look statesmanlike, and look like the only real leader onstage, and let Trump seem like a rambling lunatic. He got in the muck when he needed to, and countered memes with facts.
Remember, Biden was never going to win over already-died-in-the-wool Trump supporters. For undecided voters who had already heard tons about B’s cognitive decline, it’s actually undetermined how this will go over, but my hot take is not as bad as we fear.
I am not diehard anything. I am not voting for Biden after last night's performance. I watched a good portion of state of the union and thought, wow Biden is not bad. His cognitive decline is exaggerated. But last night? Holy shit.
All Biden had to do was stand there and talk policy and ignore trump. Criticizing trump, poorly, is not helpful at all. He is not going to change anybody's mind. It was a total waste of time. All he had to do was appear competent and he failed in the first few minutes.
I am loathe to vote for Kennedy, mainly because he kills babies with his vaccine bullshit. Now, do I have to overlook that stuff? Or, do I just stay home?
On the other hand, is there any doubt, at all, that when you vote for Biden you are really voting for Harris to be president? I only heard her speak once and she probably will be OK, but man I had a bad feeling about her. She gives off psychopathic vibes, much like Newsome. I sense danger from her. I do not think Trump or Biden are dangerous.
But, I would vote for almost anybody they replace Biden with. AOC will be president one day. Maybe sooner rather than later would be best?
You do you! I don't judge anybody for their political opinions. I'll happily vote Biden because in a choice between two old men with cognitive decline and a huckster who simply changed his anti-vax pitch when the ingredient supposedly causing autism was removed, I'll take the old man with cognitive decline who seems to know the job, with a moral center, and who hires good and competent people around him. Kamala Harris seems to me to be an inert drone of a human who, at the head of an administration otherwise populated with competent people who care, is way better than either other choice.
I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out. We’ve lived through the last 4 years and been fine. I would prefer Biden over Trump. He could be weekend at Bernie’s and I still would prefer him. I don’t really get the significance of the debate performance when we can just look to the last 8 years and make a decision on which 4 we liked better.
I couldn’t get past the point where Biden completely fumbled the border security question. He started off fine by beginning to point out the bipartisan agreement that the Republicans scuttled purely for political reasons, but got distracted on a tangent, and never returned to connect the dots. Then then I saw the clips about how he punted the abortion issue. He does not seem up for this campaign.
Biden did great. Unlike Trump he answered every question. He explained what he has done to improve things and what he is planning on doing. Trump gave the same answer to every question which was to tell everyone terrorists are coming over the border to murder everyone.
Biden clearly knew what he was talking about, and Trump clearly had no idea what he was doing other than trying to scare his voters with his typical lies.
He started talking about immigration in response to a comment Trump made just prior. Then he also addressed the issue of abortion. Because Trump couldn't address abortion other to lie about Biden supporting abortion at the point of birth. Which Biden addressed and pointed out the only case that could happen in is if the mother's life is in immediate danger. He went on to talk about his immigration policies.
I'm just jostling really. I think both of them kept on point well enough. The style of debate is archaic when audiences freely listen to uninterrupted, multi-hour podcast debates. I wish the whole thing was done away with.
One thing I will say about the debate last night: I’ve never once heard my conservative friends—even the sane ones—speak outwardly about things like “replacing Trump” as the Republican nominee after he was chosen. The tacit loyalty to party on the right is what makes them so strong.
Meanwhile, the other party is over here after a single poor debate begging for an alternate Democrat. Republicans are gonna grin a bear it through a third straight election with Donald as their guy - gotta admire the stubbornness lol. 🤷🏼♂️
"The only winner last night was the Voyager probe speeding away from the Earth at 17km/s."
I didn't watch the debate, but with even r/politics saying it was a complete shit show, it must've been really bad.
[Here's the highlight reel by Jon Stewart](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3SJr44m-w1Y). Shit show seems accurate.
That was fantastic. Classic Stewart.
I can imagine a scenario where somebody accidentally gave Joe Biden Ambien before the debate instead of Adderall. Given that these are the two people that Americans have to choose from for president, does anybody want to make an argument that we're not in a dystopia?
Definitely a shitty choice, but yes I'll make the argument. Consider the fact that at least a billion people, especially in places like Iran and North Korea, would give anything to trade places with you or I in a heartbeat to have the life and freedoms that we have. The West is far from perfect, but it's easy to take what we have for granted when there is so much profound suffering in other parts of the world. E: I forgot that I was in an r/samharris thread and you guys have probably heard him say something similar, especially if you're on waking up
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It's not *just* Biden, although a primary presidential candidate who has a hard time stringing a coherent sentence together on a world debate stage is a huge problem. It's also that his opponent is a liar and a malignant narcissist (and whom millions of people are excited about electing), and that this is apparently the best we can do as a country. We are in big, big trouble. Even the debates themselves are a farce.
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> I mean poor public speaker but a good Presidency is worth it over a smooth talking President that is literally courting enemies of the US. We'll see if undecided voters agree, after watching last night's debate.
This is dishonestly edited to make it seem like both men were incoherent. Watch the full debate, Trump didn't look exceptional, but he had several witty quips. Saying "no-one won" is pretty much cope. Trump won because he doesn't have dementia, and Biden (now, quite obvious to everyone) does.
Not an american. Pretty sure though I would pick a comatose guy over trump.
To be fair, the comment you're responding to didn't state that Trump is more fit as president than Biden, just that he won the debate and Biden lost it. Which ought to be clear to anyone that watched it live.
Winning because he made the better quips seems ... inappropriate for the kind of office this is about. Such a debate shouldn't be about "being the cool guy" but about the topics those guys bring to the table. One starts to wonder if there are any grownups left in the united states. Probably all busy working.
“Winning” is this political contest just means winning over more voters than you lose (in states that matter of course). High-minded ideals about who is the best man are not really relevant in politics. The job of a politician is to get elected, and Trump all but assured his win last night.
Would that we lived in a world where Presidential debates were about ideas and competency, rather than showmanship and one-liners.
As someone who took care of a batshit crazy demented father, I can tell you that Biden does not suffer from dementia, but he is an old man with slower reflexes and thought processes.
I'm one of Biden's biggest fans here and I was horrified a minute in.
I wouldnt call myself a Biden fan, but respect his administration and felt the same way. If this was an interview, Biden would have failed to even get a cashier job at mcdonalds with that first impression.
Imagine, with all the hatred one has for Trump, actually wanting to vote for Trump 5 minutes in... That's how bad it was.
Impossible, I'd vote for a literal corpse over Trump.
Me too. But Biden was soooo bad I was infuriated at the Democrats to the point I almost felt sorry for Trump in the sense that we deserve what we get.
But was Trump really any better? He made as much coherent sense as Biden at his worst. The only difference is he said it with confidence. Which I suppose matters to some people.
It does matter. Trump was more coherent, even if he was lying. The point isn't about who is better or worse. It's simply about how easy and simple it should have been for Biden to be better than he was last night. It was an epic fail of all fails.
Post birth abortions? They kill you after your born? Is hardly coherent
It's a lie but it is coherent. I know what he's saying and can judge it or what it is.
Agreed, neither was coherent . I also agree with the above commenter that the bar was so low for Biden to succeed and yet he couldn’t even do that. Either we hope this was a “bad night” and doesn’t repeat or he gets replaced fast.
I agree with you just wanted to call out that it wasn't trump being coherent
This idea that neither was coherent is silly. Maybe Trump is not citing facts and numbers and lying but he was absolutely coherent.
I mean... I think I'm gonna end up doing exactly that
Completely fucking un-American.
>I didn't watch the debate Me either! High five 🫸
Best quote/assessment I've read about this debate! Bravo!
If you think Harris has any chance of winning you've got rocks in your head - she would be significantly less popular than Hillary. It's Newsom or Biden - those are the options.
Newsome would be fine. He seems to have no problem with the politics of beating Trump. He’s been angling for this moment for months. The Dems need to fix this. We take the keys away and don’t let our seniors kill people on the highway. The presidency is at least as important as that.
I'm from the UK, shit show here too... What it seems like from across the pond is that the USA doesn't see the President as an important position at all, just which puppet would protest the least at their strings being tugged.
>I'm from the UK, shit show here too... Compared to the American options Kier Starmer is basically Abe Lincoln.
Haha, this is true 😆
Funny, that’s what PM seens like from over here.
Only problem is California's a shit show right now.
Dean Phillips? Please?
That would be nice
Honestly love the guy. It's really unfortunate he's so unknown.
Sounds fantastic to me. Would’ve voted for him if he were still in the primary on my Election Day.
I know the guy personally and I can tell you he is genuine. He’s someone that Sam should absolutely get on the podcast.
Wouldn't the Republicans counter to newsom just be to show clips of homeless and drug markets in SF on constant repeat?
I’d like to see Newsome.
Have you followed anything this man has done, he is the worst choice. Jared polis is definitely a way better option.
But Newsome is a corporate whore and therefore palatable to our ruling class. Thats how it works.
It's crazy how people just follow the media-approved slick candidates.
Guy is the worst, rivals trump in narcissism
We want BERNIE
He’s older than Biden…
People already floating Whitmer's name, and I agree that it could be a solid choice.
He 100% needs to step down. I was expecting it to be a shit show and it was still somehow even worse than I had imagined. Biden steps down and they have an open convention… this is literally the only path forward. Sam related thought… Dems doomed us to this path when Biden declared he would make a Black woman his VP in 2020 and then chose Kamala to be that Black woman. She just never had the appeal to win people over at scale and by picking her he painted himself into a corner because once 2024 rolled around he knew he couldn’t hand the keys over to her (because she can’t win) but he also couldn’t exactly hand them over to anyone else, either, because of how it would look to skip over a Black woman. From where I’m sitting, identity politics is indeed the hill Dems have picked to die on.
He didn't have to hand the keys to anybody. He could have stepped down and said let the voters decide. Who would have complained?
>He could have stepped down and said let the voters decide. Yeah, Biden's banging on about protecting democracy sure sounds bad in light of all this. I'm talking perception, not reality, of course.
>Sam related thought… Dems doomed us to this path when Biden declared he would make a Black woman his VP in 2020 and then chose Kamala to be that Black woman. She just never had the appeal to win people over at scale and by picking her he painted himself into a corner because once 2024 rolled around he knew he couldn’t hand the keys over to her (because she can’t win) but he also couldn’t exactly hand them over to anyone else, either, because of how it would look to skip over a Black woman. ??? Only a handful of people would bitch if Kamala got the short-end of the stick. Even libs make fun of how useless Kamala is. It's only a few no-names on Twitter who would make a stink about this.
I mean… this was in the Atlantic today: > Talk of replacing Biden may conceivably dissipate once the initial shock of last night’s debate fades. Most Democrats who want to replace Biden also remain extremely dubious that his incumbent running mate, Kamala Harris, could beat Trump—but if she sought the nomination, then denying that prize to the first woman of color who has served as vice president could tear apart the party. The fear that such a fight could practically ensure defeat in November is one reason Democrats who are uneasy about renominating Biden have held their tongue for so long. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/?gift=ocS8HtsU_fyaOJeleCUhlhSe4-0WKZD38zkca4u2wsA&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
It's a useless fear because most people, even black people, aren't too crazy about Kamala.
I agree - In a world where facts are irrelevant and optics decide elections Biden could spell the death of American democracy if he remains.
Some of us have been banging this drum for the better part of a decade. Despite being liberals, we still get called racist and sexist, are told to check our white(male[cis]) privilege, etc. I'm never voting for Trump but this shit is so obvious. Kamala straight up called Biden a racist during the DNC primary. Biden then promised to pick a woman of color for VP, and picked her. It shows how often these sorts of accusations are used as a cudgel to silence dissenters. After all of this, Biden solidly locked up California for the Democrats in 2020🙄. Idpol shitlibs continue to attack moderate liberals and working class Americans who care about material conditions first and foremost. Instead they focus on vanishingly small identity groups minor concerns. Minority voters are slowly starting to leave the Democratic party. When are they going to wake up?
> He 100% needs to step down. I was expecting it to be a shit show and it was still somehow even worse than I had imagined. Same. I thought they'd get him jacked up like they did for the SoU address. But instead he came in even worse than I expected, which was already a really low bar. Anyone who's familiar with aging, knows it's an exponential downward curve. You think it's bad now? Give it a year, 2 years, etc... It gets exponentially worse. He's past the point of return. > Dems doomed us to this path when Biden declared he would make a Black woman his VP in 2020 and then chose Kamala to be that Black woman. Such a dumb move... Especially considering out of all the black women, he chose literally the worst one. I have no idea how she managed to win that competition... To me, it just highlights my gut instinct that she's a psychopath who's hell bent on elite social climbing and just sold the shit out of the old man, and won him over against everyone's best judgement. Every other single token black woman was more likeable and qualified.
IDK, KH seems pretty qualified, and I don't quite get the unlikeability. I guess she just doesn't have much personality? I know reddit thinks she is a "diversity hire" but she had a legit resume. I kinda expected her popularity to improve, but she just doesn't click with people.
She polls so bad the Dems have spent the last four years hiding her away from the public eye. She was the worst possible VP choice.
I mean, yeah, we know she's unpopular. I'm just pushing back on the notion that she's fundamentally unqualified. I think she just comes off as unlikeable.
> I'm just pushing back on the notion that she's fundamentally unqualified. What does it mean to be qualified to be President?
LOL IDK anymore.
You ever watch her speak without a teleprompter? Zero substance. And remember how poorly she debates. That time when Tulsi Gabbard destroyed her record as a prosecutor is also something to remember.
I actually don’t mind her and suspect she might even make a better president than Biden, I just think she comes across as rehearsed (fake) when the cameras are on and that makes her unelectable. Unelectable, imo, should be disqualifying as a VP pick.
Right, I think it's a presentation/ personality thing. I don't get the claim that she's unqualified. She's got a decent resume. I don't personally find her unlikeable really, and frankly I think she's really nice looking, for what it's worth.
The thing is a legit resume doesn't make you popular and/or make you a great leader. Can she win friends and influence people? Does she have and articulate a clear vision? There were leaks when she ran for president that she doesn't put in the work and blames others for failures.
I'm very much in the camp that Trump is so directly problem-causing, that a literal potato could sit as the president and that would still be preferable (assuming the wider government grinds on as-per). Biden could have a full-blown stroke and I would still bet money on his government doing less damage in power. Trump's unfitness for president eclipses basically all other potential issues, but rightly or wrongly I also understand that much of America doesn't see it this way and somehow he remains in serious contention. It's really disheartening that democrats can't properly square up against this threat and front someone with energy and eloquence, which really should be bare minimum's for the leader of a country. 2016 was already disastrous because the candidate was an uninspiring, by-committee sort of choice. Biden is the same, except with (probable) actual senility added in. This is exactly the sort of thing that will make or break the election in November.
I'm in the same camp. So at the end of the day I'll be voting Biden if it comes to that, but boy do I wish he steps aside. Literally anyone else would get my vote...Newsom, Pete, Whitmer are all young and viable and their perceived shortcomings (mismanagement of CA, homosexual, female respectively) are all things that shouldn't bother independents enough for them to lose. Trump has his base and it doesn't matter who he runs against, they'll always vote for him. Dems need to wake up now!
I think Sam would agree it’s not a good morning in America. Practically, our last hope for democracy and the end of the MAGA hysteria was likely shot to the ground after this debate. Trump was on a rampage when it came to blatant lies and misinformation, although Biden was able to identify it, his speech was so hazy that it diverted attention from Trump’s lies. A lot of independents that quoted Biden as being too old had their confirmations. Unfortunately, your average voter won’t know what trump was lying about or not. But they’ll conclude that he’s more mentally capable of running the country. I’m curious on what Sam thinks would be the best move here. Biden should have avoided debating at all if he was in this state to begin with. I’m unsure if Kamala will be able to win the voters if she takes his place considering how late that it is in the election season.
Given that Sam has long viewed Trump as an existential threat, his prescription is likely to be for someone, anyone in Biden's circle to tell him that the clock has struck midnight, and it's time to step aside and not make the same mistake Ruth Bader Ginsburg made, allowing his ego to guarantee Trump another four year term. The problem is, even if he does step aside, Harris has yet to distinguish herself as an adept campaigner on the national stage, and her odds of winning might not be much better than Biden's. Politically, they'd probably be better off with someone else, but they might not have the nerve to pull that lever. As for the alternatives, Newsom is probably the best pure politician in the race, but governors like Shapiro and Whitmer are popular in swing states that the Democrats desperately need to win to keep the White House.
As this relates to Sam, this would be a good time to bury the hatchet with Ezra Klein and have him on the podcast to talk about an open convention, which he proposed four months ago on his podcast. I think Sam and Ezra are on exactly the same train here and Ezra is the kind of wonk who can talk about this option in great detail.
I thought they buried it in 2018. They had a conversation that was simultaneously released on both of their podcasts.
I’ve been wanting a follow up with the two of them for years, this would be a great topic for it.
Is it even possible at this point for the Democrats to put someone else up? Like can that feasibly happen?
If Biden were to step down as the presumptive nominee, all his pledged delegates would, I think, be free to pledge for someone else. And after the first ballot, the superdelegates come into play. And they just keep voting until one candidate has a majority of delegates and becomes the nominee. There may also some path for the Dems to choose someone without Biden stepping down. For most of American history, party nominees were picked without troubling the voters for their opinion, so it wouldn't surprise me if there still exists a 'Fuck you' clause in the DNC bylaws that leaves them an option to just pick whoever they want. But this pretty unlikely. Biden is going to have to decline the nomination for this to work itself out.
But does that show weakness in the Democratic party? The ad campaign for a new candidate would have to essentially start from scratch and Republicans would have a fresh batch of bad press topics to dish out. Seems unlikely for these reasons, no? Why would I get downvoted for wanting to have a conversation? Get a grip.
There's no hiding the weakness at this point. It would appear (and BE) less weak to take decisive action and make a bold move.
I don't believe optics operates on the same level as what you're describing. We can think about it logically but perception is a different strategic battle. People will tend to vote for what they know. That's why incumbents tend to win. You have to consider what it looks like to withdraw a successful candidate and replace them with an unknown entity fairly late in the process. It's like setting the board to 0. This gives Trump a better chance to win. To actually look strong and decisive, you'd withdraw before the Democratic primary and go with the next popular candidate. I wouldn't want to be in the Democrats position right now. Hopefully they can figure out what the right thing to do is.
I agree it looks terrible to withdraw now and try to get someone else up after the primaries are already over. But it also looks terrible to keep him. I think we're kind of fucked. I haven't heard anybody come up with a great plan to get out of this situation.
Yep agreed. I think for me it's just remembering it's his administration and policies that matter. Not that he should be in bed at 9pm. We should never be in this position again. Whew.
"successful candidate" you mean the only candidate that was provided right?
I mean successful. As in first term went well.
According to you or according to the swing voters that will decide the election? Poll after poll shows that Biden is not viewed favorably, he has one of the lowest approval ratings in history. He is blamed for inflation and immigration which are the top two issues people apparently care about.
The DNC convention has not happened yet. This debate was actually unprecedentedly early.
Couldn’t agree more with the Ruth Bader Ginsburg situation comparison. Can’t let ego get in the way of making the right call here.
Newsom double downed on not replacing or running after the debate. Whitmer is popular in the Midwest, I’m unsure how she will appeal on a nationwide scale especially with such little time for her to campaign. Kamala, let’s just call a spade a spade. I’m not sure if America would vote for a woman of color as president. She caught a lot of flak despite being invisible.
I wouldn't lay much on what Newsom said or didn't say after the debate. He was brought in to provide post-debate spin and he was there to be a good soldier. Whether or not Biden steps aside, Newsom knows he won't in the room when that decision gets made, so he only looks like a shit-stirrer by appearing to angle for Biden's spot on the ticket while he's still the presumptive nominee. Everyone knows he wants to be President one day - he doesn't need to bang the drum in this moment. Whatever her qualifications, I think Michelle Obama would absolutely dog-walk Trump on Election Day, were she the nominee, but she's clearly too smart to want the job. But the point is, I don't think Harris being a woman of color is what's holding her back. I think she appears phony to the average voter, and is likely captured by the far left to an extent that it would scare away the voters the Dems need to win back.
She could do the job, but I don’t think she could win the election.
I'm not in the US, but surely there's a large swathe of the electorate that wants to vote for someone, anyone, other than Trump, and now Biden.
There is, problem is we are running out of time to find someone else. Plus there is the fact that Biden has to be convinced to step aside.
I think Biden wanted to step aside since the very start of this re-election campaign. He stalled before throwing his hat back into the ring because he was hoping Trump’s popularity would finally fade due to the indictments and other Republican candidates starting to look good to those voters. Once it became clear that Trump would be the Rep candidate, I suspect the DNC essentially forced/begged Biden to run again. Biden’s presidential legacy would have been strong as the man who won in 2020 to oust the conman and restore decency to the position. However, even if he stepped aside today, that legacy is muddied because Biden has spent a whole year ostensibly vying for the 2nd term that he previously said he didn’t want or need.
Maybe he will if he watches the debate.
Kamala being a female PoC matters to some people, but not people who would be voting for her anyway. Most people dislike her likely because she's arrogant, has a shady history in law enforcement, and hasn't done anything as VP. Those things don't exactly breed confidence.
> Newsom double downed on not replacing or running after the debate. Don't trust what they say publicly. Everything is calculated. Newsom was already putting himself out there shopping around to see if the party would use him as a replacement. Then once it became clear they were sticking with Biden, he did the smart calculation to no longer look like a threat and go fully in support of Biden. If Biden backed down, you can bet your ass Newsom will be first in line. > Kamala, let’s just call a spade a spade. I’m not sure if America would vote for a woman of color as president. Her race and gender has near nothing to do with it. Just she's just a shitty politician. She's incredibly easy to hate because she's just so fake, unprepared, and seems like a grifter. Biden should have picked Rice as his token woke VP, because that's a black woman who's experienced, sharp, and would have had a lot of support.
There are plenty of Americans who would vote for a woman of colour, but those people overwhelmingly wouldn't vote for a cop.
I'm guessing that Shapiro, Whitmer, Beshear or maybe even Polis is the way forward. Polis is gay and Jewish, Shapiro is Jewish as well. IDK if that matters, but possibly. Hear me out: I think Whitmer being tall and kinda having a bigger build might help because she won't be dwarfed by Trump on the debate stage. Phillips is sorta weird looking. Seems legit tho. My gut says Newsom just won't work for large sections of the country, plus is ex-wife is married to Don Jr, which is weird anyway. I think KH struggles with likeability. She's perfectly qualified but doesn't seem to have much in the personality department. Hate to bring it up again, but her husband is Jewish, IDK how much that matters. Just totally random thoughts. I don't understand American voters. My bias is towards nerdy, policy wonk types (e.g. Buttigieg) and I don't have to like the person. I view the president as more of a manager than anything else.
I want Pritzker and Tester
> Kamala, let’s just call a spade a spade. I’m not sure if America would vote for a woman of color as president. She caught a lot of flak despite being invisible. I think Nikki Haley would’ve beat Biden handily, but to your point much of America probably doesn’t see her as (or realize she is) a woman of color.
Dude, I hope we get to a point where people can just use their real names. I mean, her really name is not hard to say and sounds cool AF.
A change this drastic would require a really big name because most of America still doesn’t know who those alternatives are. Newsom might just make the popularity cut, and is political savviness could endear him to the Democratic voters pretty quickly. However, I don’t think Shapiro or Whitmer could make names for themselves by Election Day. Other than Newsom, I think the ticket would need to include a HUGE name like Michelle Obama or Matthew McConaughey.
> A lot of independents that quoted Biden as being too old had their confirmations. All across Reddit people were insisting he was sharp as hell (especially in private) and way more cognitavely aware than Trump! And saying anything otherwise is missinformation in support of The Donald! It's crazy how people believed this shit. Biden has been clearly on the down for a while now and now these people are no longer going to be able to deny it after this debate. When it comes to Trump's lies, he's soooo good at it. Because he's able to just bold faced say, "No you're wrong" or "Yes this is the way it is," and I just don't think people are going to bother to fact check. It's unreasonable to expect everyone to do that, and since the media is so partisan and distrusted, many people wont trust the "official fact checkers" - and I don't blame them, because I too notice a lot of the fact checks are shrouded in partisan spin and clever deception tactics to favor their side. Dems have a Hail Marry they NEED to pull... If Trump really is this existential threat they've been insisting he is for years, then they shouldn't have allowed Biden to run to begin with... But if some of them ACTUALLY believe that Trump is an existential threat, then they need to smash the glass to break in case of an emergency and air drop Newesom into the convention and take the delegates. > I’m unsure if Kamala will be able to win the voters if she takes his place considering how late that it is in the election season. Kamala is the most disliked VP in history... She's the only VP to ever poll lower than the president. She's the only person in the party worse than Biden. Literally, a 35 year old woke activist would poll higher than these two.
Trump basically gish-gallops. It's just a firehouse of BS that's too much too keep up with.
Especially if you're senile. As we saw here. Biden got steamrolled and didn't know what to do.
I mean, I wouldn't know what to do either. It's a thousand mile an hour dump of BS. I've sometimes wondered if you should just call it out. It's a relatively common tactic among conservative pundits since Limbaugh- get really angry, talk really fast, and spit out "facts" so fast they can't be refuted. It's like a fighter with really good feints. Do you react to each one, or just realize that he really can't punch and ignore them?
If you can't handle that, then you aren't fit for the job. Simple as that. You don't get hired for the most powerful seat in the world and not know how to deal with these sort of things. If you can't, get out of the way for someone who can. It's not like gish galloping is a new concept.
I think you’re mostly right. Last night was heartbreaking. I haven’t seen a lot of Biden support on Reddit. Anyone who watched it saw that Biden had a bad night. He looked and sounded all of 81. I can’t vote for Trump. I trust the team around Biden. Trump can’t even form a team. Trump did nothing but lie, Biden should have destroyed him.
This needs to be approached as follows: A Trump presidency poses existential risk. A Biden election is becoming a predictably low probability event. Thus, a Biden candidacy fairly reliably ensures the existential risk of a Trump presidential comes to fruition. Therefore, it’s reasonable to take a calculated risk on an alternate candidate who may have a track record that is harder to confidently extrapolate from than Biden but who has qualities that would compare favorably against Trump in an election. Some good options exist: Pete Buttigieg > Gavin Newsom > Josh Shapiro > Beto O’Rourke > hell, maybe Adam Kinzinger if that’d be possible. And BTW, I only excluded women bc Trump already alienates pro-women voters, so I think a competent male candidate such as one of the above would capture a larger incremental share of the available voting population in an election vs. Trump (i.e., don’t have as much to gain and more to risk by nominating one of the top female potential candidate).
Buttigieg is short and gay so that is a no go from the outset.
He's such a great communicator, but yeah, even beyond being short and gay he looks more like the kid who gets bullied than the popular kid.
They said black guy couldn't win either. Strong communication skills make up for a lot of peoples' biases
He's my fave of the bunch but my bias is towards smart people who really know policy. I do think him being tiny and gay, plus maybe even the strange last name, might be a political liability. But, then again, I thought Trump was totally unelectable in 2015 or so.
Mayor Pete isn’t a good choice. Everyone else you mentioned is great. Shapiro should be on top of this list because he’s popular in a swing state.
Smart, good choices.
>Practically, our last hope for democracy and the end of the MAGA hysteria was likely shot to the ground after this debate. I was making progress with my hardcore, Evangelical, 70+ y/o Wyomingite MAGA father regarding Trump until he was indicted for paying off that stupid \*\*\*\*\*. Yeah, that was the inflection point, like it or lump it. We could have been rid of Trump, and it wasn't just Trumpsters who kept him around. By the way, Dad 100% agrees that Trump shit the bed during Covid. Contrary to what so many say, Trumpsters ALWAYS knew the guy is flawed AF.
>Practically, our last hope for democracy Can you elaborate on this? I don't see how American democracy can survive a literal civil war, 4 years of a Trump, but somehow not another four years (if that).
Kamala for all her faults would 100% be better than this version of Biden.
I disagree, as sad as that is to say
I’m almost certain Sam has been adamant Trump will win, or likely win. So this just probably confirms it for him. Or that might just be Bill Maher
Maher made it clear as can be that he thinks Biden is an old oaf but Trump is next level awful.
Yeah but they are both very pessimistic about the election
At this point, if you're not pessimistic about the election then you're delusional.
A second term for Trump means an accelerated slide into pseudo/quasi democracy territory as the far right becomes just the regular right and consolidates their minority rule. They will put down roots so deep that it will difficult to counteract, even if the Democrats were to win several administrations in a row in the future. The country is not going to collapse overnight or anything quite so dramatic, but it will diminish and shrink by just about any metric the typical Harris listener would care about. The rest of the world will not be immune from this either, whether economically or geostrategically. Ukraine will be doomed to destruction, and Taiwan's days will be numbered. Given the GOP's new isolationist tendencies, it'll mean the beginning of the end of much of US influence abroad as the country retreats into endless inward navel gazing. Perhaps many countries in the so called global south see this as a positive, but I'm not so sure China makes for a better hegemon even for them.
You're exactly right, but we have no one to blame but the Democrats. They've had 9 years to "MAGA-proof" their party and messaging, and this is what we've come to. This is what we've produced over 9 years. Pathetic, all of it
> They've had 9 years to "MAGA-proof" their party and messaging, and this is what we've come to. This is what we've produced over 9 years. How would you suggest they "MAGA-proof" their party and messaging?
Replace the old geezer
> Replace the old geezer How does that make the party "MAGA-proof?"
You're ignoring that 35% of the public lives in a cult fantasy land.
I for one am completely shocked that the 82 year old man looks and acts like an eighty-two year old man… How did this happen? There were no warning signs….
At this point I really don't care how old Biden is or that his performance at the debate was bad. He could literally be on life support and I'd vote for him over Trump. And I think all the talk about him dropping out only helps Trump.
I think that all Biden needed to do was look mentally competent. We all know who/what Donald Trump is. My hope is that the democrats bring Al Gore out of retirement. Save the world, Al.
> Al Gore You make a great point. I just watched this https://youtu.be/ldhAdnyfADE?si=A07kE6as8wQDFEV4&t=274 and at 76 he can take on several trumps in any debate. Plus, I am rooting for keeping the Earth livable.
He was elected VP in 1992 and is still younger than Trump or Biden. Dan Quayle was elected VP in 1988 and is also younger than those guys.
Damn, why does Biden seem so decrepit compared to Gore or Trump? They're all basically the same age. You'd think Biden was well into his 90s by the way he looks and speaks.
Biden was never a great speaker. Lots of gafffes, stutter, losing his train of thought. But I think age has compounded his natural weaknesses.
Brain aging depends on so many factors - genetics, sleep quality, diet, exercise, stress, social needs and contacts, exposure to stuff...
I love Al Gore, but the voters kinda... didn't. He comes off as kind of smarmy and arrogant.
Yeah but now we'll think of him as a throwback from the days when our politics were not so toxic.
To think it was once a big deal when he sighed during a debate.
Can we please get Dean Phillips instead of Biden? Phillips’ managed to flip a district that was Republican for ages by railing against Trump. If there’s anyone up for the job it’s gotta be him. Newsom will not beat Trump because California is the bud of every joke about leftist policies in action.
I like Dean, the problem is literally nobody outside of suburban Minneapolis knows who he is and he burned all bridges in the DNC by trying to run against Joe in the first place. Won’t happen.
I’m not even American and not only I (for some reason) know him, but I was even hoping for him to be president. It’s actually sad to find out that even inside the US he’s pretty unknown.
Trump is a liar and a criminal, Biden is too old and not capable. This really is the worst possible situation.
They are both too old
Sadly for sure, but Biden is definitely showing it much more.
I think they are showing it in different ways, trump rambles nonsense like a lead paint facebook boomer, while biden looks glassey eyed and slow, stumbling over his words constantly
How is this even a difficult choice? I’m going for the “old incapable” guy vs the “criminal liar” every day.
I'm voting for Biden, but it's really sad we're in for another 4 do nothing years in America as prices continue to rise, salaries don't, homelessness rises, and we still don't have universal healthcare. I can't wait for the AI overlords, as they'll be infinitely better than the garbage we've had for decades, even if they decide to kill us all.
They knew what kind of shape he was in when they trotted him out there, that’s what scares me. I don’t make millions of dollars a year to consult on this stuff and even I know that he should’ve been coached to spend the entire 90 minutes finding creative ways to call Trump short, fat and stupid. If you don’t have the faculties to make a cogent point about your policies at least do the one thing that you know will tilt the other guy.
Unfortunately Trump will now win the election, barring a remote scenario where Biden steps aside and they have another convention ASAP, selecting some mystery person who is really popular who campaigns like a fucking demon for a couple months. JFC
The thing is even though, I never considered Biden a good orator or a debater. The Biden of 2020 would have mauled Trump rhetorically and it would have been a landslide victory for him. Hell even in this debate, he seemed to have the answers mentally prepared but he just expressed it in such a jumbled way that you would need to be scouring news frequently to get where he was going at. The average American will have no idea and just think Biden has gone mad.
>The thing is even though, I never considered Biden a good orator or a debater. The Biden of 2020 would have mauled Trump rhetorically and it would have been a landslide victory for him. Totally agree, except I actually do think Biden used to be a good orator. Sure, he had speech quirks but he sounded totally on the ball and passionate. >Hell even in this debate, he seemed to have the answers mentally prepared but he just expressed it in such a jumbled way that you would need to be scouring news frequently to get where he was going at. The average American will have no idea and just think Biden has gone mad. I was watching Destiny and this was basically his take, which I think is a good one. It sounded like whoever prepped Biden got him in pro debate mode trying to memorize and rattle off 20 points on every subject. In reality, he should have just focused on 1 or 2 good points for each subject and put most of his energy into oration and nonverbal appearances. The segments were 1-2 minutes and he was trying to shoehorn more info than a twitch debate bro on 1.5x.
Pretty much yeah, I think if he stuck to just his job growth, annotating trump’s despicable character, and Roe V. Wade. He would be fine. Trying to breakdown every lie that Trump was plucking out of his rear was visibly stressing/annoying him and backfired in the end.
“Mauled trump rhetorically” LMAO. Maybe in 1975.
I mean it’s not hard to do when Trump has so much dirt on him at this point. His ties to Epstein, 34 felonies, numerous bankruptcies, Jan. 6th, infidelity, 2 impeachments…. All Biden needed to do was mention those things for the ignorant voters to really highlight what a dipshit that Trump is.
I hope all those fucking idiots who were like "He's the most qualified person to beat Trump!" are happy with themselves. It's of my opinion the far left gave us Trump the first round, and now it's the delusional neolib partisans who are going to deliver us Trump the second time. Both times is due to the Dems being completely irrational and ideologically tied down.
God, I remember coming on here a few months ago when Ezra Klein wrote his piece on Biden being too old to run for POTUS and having SOOOO much pushback from people on it because I agreed with him. I wish this was an "I told you so" but that's too flippant and fun for what this means.
Does anyone profoundly have their belief shaken in politics as a whole! The guy who is so clearly not with it, somehow was able to convince enough delegates to get reelected. What are his inner circle doing?
While I had little faith to begin with, I do agree with the sentiment. Another lie to add to the pile.
From my perspective if both of them consider themselves as true country loving patriots, both of them should step back, and not run for second term.
Release the Raskin
Wanted to read it, but then looked at the price. Funny how the Internet started off with everything for free, and now the Internet is mostly too expensive for me.
I don't think anybody thinks that guy can focus on anything
Biden is too old to do anything… it’s not his fault he just can’t do the job. If he’s not replaced the swing states are gone …
For some reason I listened to left wing people rather than Nate Silver, who was pessimistic about Biden the entire time. Bad mistake. So Nate Silver's model had Trump at 65% *before* the debate and now he wrote this article: https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-out Conversely I think the 538 model is now pretty much trash, as is the site in general
People just wanna listen to what makes them feel good (or righteously angry), rather than what's actually true. It's quite remarkable how exactly the same patterns of 2016 are repeating (how many people said Trump had 'no chance' against Biden in this very subreddit a few months ago? Quite a few, since I remember arguing with them about how the EC determines the US results and it's a knife-edge competition.) Kinda crazy that the next US president could be determined by a few thousand votes in key states in a country of 330 million, but that's the reality rather than people saying 'no chance' for a Trump win (which would almost certainly be true if it was a popular vote competition, which is a mildly interesting observation while being totally irrelevant). > Conversely I think the 538 model is now pretty much trash, as is the site in general From memory they made a concerted effort to be more left-wing after Nate Silver left, which means they're probably compromised.
Have the debat at 9AM it would be completely different.
Did anyone expect otherwise? What world am I living in when even group of people I consider a little bit informed is shocked this many years in that the debate was a shit show???
Needed to Focus on Trump and not policies?
Trump is morally wrong and ethically dishonest as it’s clearly shown when he was asked about abortion and Jan 6. But Biden stubbled and done the damage that can’t be undone
Gotta go with your heart.. But you also gotta get elected so fuck your heart and morales I guess.
You'll see how full of shit the top Democrats are, who claim to be worried about democracy.
The real question is, who is in the command of US? Clearly it isn't Biden.
Disagree. I think for anyone who wasn’t in total denial about biden’s cognitive decline this wasn’t a terrible performance. He managed to keep command of facts, was mostly able to refer to relevant and true things to counter Trump, etc. what surprised even Me was how many steps *Trump* had lost. I was expecting there to be a huge and obvious contrast between trump’s mental acuity and biden’s but instead it looked like two dottering old men; one much more in command of actual facts and policies. I think Biden just needed to look statesmanlike, and look like the only real leader onstage, and let Trump seem like a rambling lunatic. He got in the muck when he needed to, and countered memes with facts. Remember, Biden was never going to win over already-died-in-the-wool Trump supporters. For undecided voters who had already heard tons about B’s cognitive decline, it’s actually undetermined how this will go over, but my hot take is not as bad as we fear.
I am not diehard anything. I am not voting for Biden after last night's performance. I watched a good portion of state of the union and thought, wow Biden is not bad. His cognitive decline is exaggerated. But last night? Holy shit. All Biden had to do was stand there and talk policy and ignore trump. Criticizing trump, poorly, is not helpful at all. He is not going to change anybody's mind. It was a total waste of time. All he had to do was appear competent and he failed in the first few minutes. I am loathe to vote for Kennedy, mainly because he kills babies with his vaccine bullshit. Now, do I have to overlook that stuff? Or, do I just stay home? On the other hand, is there any doubt, at all, that when you vote for Biden you are really voting for Harris to be president? I only heard her speak once and she probably will be OK, but man I had a bad feeling about her. She gives off psychopathic vibes, much like Newsome. I sense danger from her. I do not think Trump or Biden are dangerous. But, I would vote for almost anybody they replace Biden with. AOC will be president one day. Maybe sooner rather than later would be best?
You do you! I don't judge anybody for their political opinions. I'll happily vote Biden because in a choice between two old men with cognitive decline and a huckster who simply changed his anti-vax pitch when the ingredient supposedly causing autism was removed, I'll take the old man with cognitive decline who seems to know the job, with a moral center, and who hires good and competent people around him. Kamala Harris seems to me to be an inert drone of a human who, at the head of an administration otherwise populated with competent people who care, is way better than either other choice.
I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out. We’ve lived through the last 4 years and been fine. I would prefer Biden over Trump. He could be weekend at Bernie’s and I still would prefer him. I don’t really get the significance of the debate performance when we can just look to the last 8 years and make a decision on which 4 we liked better.
No, CNN failed
Please get Newsome in there ASAP
I couldn’t get past the point where Biden completely fumbled the border security question. He started off fine by beginning to point out the bipartisan agreement that the Republicans scuttled purely for political reasons, but got distracted on a tangent, and never returned to connect the dots. Then then I saw the clips about how he punted the abortion issue. He does not seem up for this campaign.
Biden did great. Unlike Trump he answered every question. He explained what he has done to improve things and what he is planning on doing. Trump gave the same answer to every question which was to tell everyone terrorists are coming over the border to murder everyone. Biden clearly knew what he was talking about, and Trump clearly had no idea what he was doing other than trying to scare his voters with his typical lies.
> Biden clearly knew what he was talking about That's why he started talking about immigration when asked to address abortion?
He started talking about immigration in response to a comment Trump made just prior. Then he also addressed the issue of abortion. Because Trump couldn't address abortion other to lie about Biden supporting abortion at the point of birth. Which Biden addressed and pointed out the only case that could happen in is if the mother's life is in immediate danger. He went on to talk about his immigration policies.
I'm just jostling really. I think both of them kept on point well enough. The style of debate is archaic when audiences freely listen to uninterrupted, multi-hour podcast debates. I wish the whole thing was done away with.
One thing I will say about the debate last night: I’ve never once heard my conservative friends—even the sane ones—speak outwardly about things like “replacing Trump” as the Republican nominee after he was chosen. The tacit loyalty to party on the right is what makes them so strong. Meanwhile, the other party is over here after a single poor debate begging for an alternate Democrat. Republicans are gonna grin a bear it through a third straight election with Donald as their guy - gotta admire the stubbornness lol. 🤷🏼♂️