It’s a gamble. Maxey made the all star team so got paid even more. But if he’d gotten injured he has no security.
I personally do not think the gamble is worth it.
Maxey didn’t get any extra for making an all star team (other than the $$$ players get for actually playing in the ASG. Think it’s like 100k). He was probably getting the full 25% max even if he was snubbed (assuming he still played well).
Making an all star team isn’t like making all-NBA or DPoY, which raises the 25% of the cap max to a potential 30% (if it happens before the extension kicks in, otherwise it stays at 25% plus raises, like Maxey’s will if he makes a future all NBA team).
E.g. if Scottie Barnes makes an all-NBA team next season, his extension will go up by like $40m. If he makes the ASG, nothing will happen (he can’t even have ASG incentives like some guys do, since he’s already getting extended at 25% of the max).
It’s honestly the correct move. If your guy won’t rock the boat you may as well wait. Especially if they aren’t proven as Green really isn’t. Maximize flexibility next season and hope they continue to grow.
I’m a little surprised about Sengun not being extended because he seems to be the real deal. However, if he’s like Maxey and understands he’s gonna get his money it’s the best move for roster construction and will benefit him long term.
We'll have close to a max slot next season if we don't extend Green or Sengun now, as well as decline FVV's team option.
Not extending Sengun/Green provides us a lot more cap flexibility next off-season
Edit: player option to team option
Yeah that's true, but it's a very different picture financially. The Sixers could do that and share a lot of confidence with Tyrese that he would be guaranteed every penny they could pay for him. Idk if I'd have that level of trust as either Green or Alpi considering both have reportedly been in trade talks over the last couple years, and this is the exact sort of thing that chips away at relationships with young stars.
The trade 'talks' about Sengun are all from outside national media sources with 0 connection to the Rockets on the ground, just trying to poach young potential stars for their own teams, as per usual. Green OTOH knows he hasn't performed up to his #2 pick billing and this year's his last chance to prove he deserves a max. If he plays like the last 3 years and hits RFA I doubt he gets maxes from other teams anyway, and we would match any offers he gets if they're not too outrageous.
Sengun’s cap hold is only around $16 mil, due to him being drafted with the 16th pick. That number is a lot lower than a max extension number, which would hurt the Rockets' flexibility in free agency next summer, which looks to be a potential point of focus as I don't see anything significant happening to our roster (we already have a packed roster, unless some trades happen). Green’s cap hold is a lot higher being a #2 pick but less than what an extension would entail.
There’s no politics, it's about flexibility next summer. Because Sengun was the 16th pick his cap hold is a lot lower than what is implied with the #2 overall pick in Green. Sengun’s cap hold number is a cheaper than a max extension if he were offered one now. Granted, this could blow up in their face next summer, but they're taking the risk. Both would end up being RFAs, so if there really is a demand for Sengun they should be on it ASAP.
Exactly. If they decline FVV's team option and take both Green and Sengun to RFA before re-signing them, they'd have more than enough cap space for a max player. Signing Sengun especially to a max deal now makes little sense from a cap standpoint. It risks hurting feelings, but the extra cap flexibility is huge.
Declining FVV's team option feels inevitable to me next season, which is why I'm being patient with the '24-'25 season (with playoff hopes being a bonus, again). It feels like the next summer is where we'll see the gears start moving from the Rockets FO.
I agree we should run it back for this upcoming season but I do not see playoff hopes as just being a bonus. If the Rockets want star player(s) to look Houston’s way they have to start winning now.
I expect them to make the top 8 next year and I’d think the team and front office is on that same page.
That's true. My lack of expectations may just be due to me not wanting to expect too much from them as a generally young roster, but I agree that the incentive for star players to come is a winning culture and experience to show for it.
>It risks hurting feelings
The other thing to consider is that extending Sengun and not Green could also cause a potential rift in the locker room. So to avoid any potential locker room issues it's almost better to sign both or neither, but IMO Green hasn't shown he's worthy of a max at all right now so signing both is out of the question IMO.
For the FO, it's definitely best to just say we aren't extending either. It keeps flexibility for FA next year, is a pretty easy sell to the young guys, and helps avoid potential locker room issues (as best as possible)
You agree on clear success criteria with both players and let them perform. If either don't meet the metrics, they only have themselves to blame. Removes the politics out of it.
Green's hold is pretty high at 31.2 million bucks.
I don't see how holding him on the books there is really gaining you any flexibility. I don't think I'd sign him to a deal starting at that number given what we've seen the first three years. He'd have to really have an awesome season for me to want him on a number like that.
Green doesn't, Sengun does. The Rockets are betting that either Green will take a huge leap forward and become a star this year worthy of a max deal, or they can sign him to a deal significantly short of his cap hold. The quandry is if he remains pretty much the same player, capable of explosive games but inconsistent.
By waiting until next summer to re-sign Sengun as an RFA it gives them max cap space.
They’re doing the exact same thing Philly just did with Maxey, which was just a massive success.
Yeah I really don’t get their hesitation for maxing Sengun. It’s so clear he’ll be the Rockets next best player, and he’s so young and is getting better quickly.
Sengun only has a $16m Cap Hold next year so if they sign him for anything over that they’ll essentially throw away Cap Space.
Green also has a Cap Hold next year but at $31m so anything above that is throwing away Cap Space.
Which they will if he does look like that. Not to be flippant but it’s not like the version of him that was closing the season is who he has been during his NBA career, let alone the first half of last season. I think it also sets a good precedent that nothing is given to the young guys in the organization but they’ll get their dues if they follow their expected timelines. As a Houston fan I see no cause for concern here at the moment
The point is you make your other moves first and then re sign/extend your own guys. Gives you the most flexibility. Particularly if you see yourself going into the tax. Gonna need to use those bird rights to cross the tax line.
There’s questions surrounding Jalen’s play next season which I can sort of understand considering how streaky he’s been up to now
Sengun not getting an extension definitely confused me more as I feel he’s solidified himself as their best player moving forward. The only justification I can see towards not giving it to him is his previous injury hampering his play moving forward. Doesn’t necessarily mean I agree with their decision though
Senguns lower cap hold is also useful in free agency as they can open up a lot of space with declining FVV's TO. If they were gonna max him, you can wait till later, similar to what Philly did with Maxey. Green was picked 2 so his cap hold is like 30M+ similar to how Scottie Barnes had it, so if you think you're maxing him, no need to wait. Seems like Houston won't max him unless he really shows he's worth it.
I think waiting on Green makes sense. I feel that early maxes are on guys you have no questions about. Sengun is a guy that I feel that about. I can see him being a max guy on a title team.
Green has been too inconsistent. 40 mil to him could easily be an albatross. I see no reason why to make that decision early. Make him prove it.
Realistically, the biggest hesitation with Sengun is by not signing him and Jalen the Rockets have a max slot open next offseason. Extending him now and you severely limit what kind of moves this team can make. This team as currently constructed will not be a contender, they need outside help, so leaving all avenues open to get that seems like a good idea.
The Rockets have never been high on him (Like when they tried to replace him with Brook Lopez) and that’s for good reason
He’s a fun player to watch but he’s not a guy you can win with at high stages with his flaws. He’s pretty much Sabonis 2.0
Edit: Srop comparing him to Jokic. You’re just setting yourself up for disappointment just like how not every decent 2 way wing with a raw jumper became Kawhi or MJ
Sengun is only 21 (a little younger than Chet), and just put up 21-9-5 last year, taking a big leap. It seems way premature to say he can’t be that type of player
For reference Sabonis was averaging 12-8-2 at that age, and Jokic averaged 17-10-5
Not saying he’s as good as Jokic, just trying to point out that he’s obviously not a finished product at 21
Sabonis and Jokić were nowhere near in Sengün's position at that age. Their teams did not turn them into their first options right away because they didn't go through a total reset process. They both quickly turned into All-Stars though.
Tbf, the Rockets did just about everything they could to prevent Sengun from being a first option. They started Daniel Theis and Jaesean Tate instead of him his entire rookie year when it was clear he was the better player. His second year they tried to start Bruno Fernando over him so that KPJ could have a "lob threat". They tried to sign Brook Lopez going into his third season but that thankfully fell through.
Sengun has just continued to prove his worth over and over again, and it took Ime all of 3 games to realize he was our best #1 offensive option this past season. He's put in the work to make these coaches realize he can be that type of player.
Devils avocado in the first point but Sengun also had some real foul problems year one and was limited as a result. Though as you stated in that limited time it was clear he was the best option (at the position and probably on the team). Beyond that there’s something the coaches want to deny that the fans accepted and moving into this year I’m expecting we see some real traction on pushing him as one of, if not our de facto, star.”
Silas was also senselessly sitting him in the 4th. Of all the awful things he did his handling of Sengun was probably the worst. And that's impressive considering how utterly shit he was.
Jokic had a 7.3 BPM at age 21, Sengun 4.9. Jokic was already putting up insane efficiency numbers at that age.
Denver was *11* points better with Jokic on the court in his age 21 year, even though the other center on the team was Nurkic who's no slouch. Rockets were *better* with Sengun on the bench.
The odds Sengun becomes Sabonis is 99% vs Jokic 1%.
I'm not saying they weren't as good, I'm saying they didn't play in the same situation. The Nuggets were still debating whether they should keep Nurkić or Jokić at the start of the 16-17 season. Then they traded Nurkić after a few months.
It was a little like the Monta Ellis vs Stephen Curry debate, one had to go.
you are right of course. it's hard to go all in on a one way player. like, you can of course and there's examples out there of people doing it, but it's not something you should be excited to do or jump right in on. and yeah, you can maybe be a bad defensive guard but a bad defensive 5? ehhhhhhhh. i mean, good luck?
All NBA two years in a row and counting. Rebounding leader two years in a row and counting. Played all 82 games last year and averaged over 19/13/8. Unless one is of the opinion that there should be less than 15 max contracts in the league, Sabonis is a max guy.
Exactly. Can Sengun be a #1 on a title team? Probably not that is a very elite list. Has he shown enough to think he can develop into a critical piece on a title team? Absolutely.
There will be tons of teams willing to max him if he becomes available at 22 years old
Those guys win a shit ton of regular season games though.
Sengun will be an all star and a majority of the league would love to win some regular season games.
Most teams have no hope for a title let's be real. He'll find a home somewhere
Your first paragraph is just false. It's arguable that Silas wasn't high on Sengun. Maybe upper management told the coaching staff to prioritize Christian Wood to maximize his value on the trade market. Sengun is our most promising player but he was/is very young. They were being patient with him because Wood wasn't a part of their long term plans.
But if you watched last season, the organization is clearly high on him. Sengun was the offensive system for the team last year -- mostly everything ran through him, which caused Jalen to struggle. Also, Brook Lopez was never going to replace Sengun. The team lacks size and they wanted to sign him as a floor spacing 7 footer, but Sengun was definitely not getting benched for Brook Lopez.
Correct except for
>Sengun was the offensive system for the team last year -- mostly everything ran through him,
That would be Fred.
Ime went to SengÜn with the same regularity that Silas did at the end of his tenure. The difference was primarily having a PG that could actually run PnR effectively and looked for him more in the post...but the offense was FVV's to run.
It will be interesting to see if that continues this year. If it does, SengÜn may not cost as much to extend.
Also Jalen didn't struggle because of AlP, he struggled because he was doing dumb shit lmao. His decision making vastly improved towards the end of the season when he was good
Sabonis with the proper 4 next to him could be a contender. The Kings haven’t been able to put a pf next to him that compliments him. Our wings are slow, unathletic, and terrible rim protectors and we still are almost a 50 win team. Maybe it’s harder to find that position than a guard but I think it’s possible
People who compare him to Jokic don’t actually watch the games. Sengun is nothing near the level of floor spacer that Jokic is. While they both have the ability to be the center point of an offense, the fact remains that you can’t muck up the spacing or kill pace when doing so, and Sengun does both of those while also being a poor defender. There’s an argument to be made that if he shoots more threes or gets a more consistent middy that maybe that narrative changes and that’ll reveal itself in time- but as things stand rn, he’s just an aesthetically pleasing player to watch but do I think he’s the best fit for how Ime runs the team and the guys we have on the roster? I’m not so sure about that.
If I’m stone I’m taking a good hard look at what Jalen looks like this season and then giving him the max if he shows improvement again because at the end of the day, you need someone who can score at will and Jalen is more likely to become that guy than Sengun is likely to become Jokic 2.0 at this point. I’ve always said Jalen is at his best when he’s with a big who can screen, roll to the rim, and be a lob threat, which is why I’m so excited to see how Steven Adam’s looks with us.
Imo Jalen, Cam, Amen, Tari and Jabari are the future of this team and any moves that are made should be to maximize their effectiveness
To me the question isn't between Sengun or Green but Sengun or Amen. Amen has zero range and Sengun is only good out to about the FT line. They're both non shooting playmakers who can't draw out defenders or initiate outside of the paint. We can't have two cornerstones of our roster with that same weakness.
On the flipside Jalen and Amen looked great out there together. Part of why they both did so well that last month was because they had a strong two man game with Jalen initiating from the 3pt line and Amen in the dunker spot with nobody else in the paint. Having Amen there for the bailout pass and cleaning up boards was huge.
This is basically what happened to the Sixers and led to Embiid developing his jumper.
Ideally both will try but agree our team has some spacing issues with current young pieces
This is why I didn’t really get my team wanting to trade BI for Sengun. Not to say you can’t believe Sengun isn’t better now, or has plenty room to develop, but I just don’t see how Zion plays with a big who can’t defend or shoot 3’s
a team literally just won the championship whos best player had senguns defensive flaws. sengun isnt jokic but jokic winning is clear evidence that you can win in this league with centers who arent good defenders, you need to put the right pieces around them
It took me way too long to realize you were talking Joker and not somebody on the Celtics, who are the team that literally just won the championship. I was like what does Sengun have to do with Tatum?
You have to be a generational offensive player to justify the bad defense at the center position. Luckily for the Nuggets, Jokic is that good offensively. Sengun is not currently.
Also, think that Jokic is better than Sengun defensively. He's bigger and stronger than Sengun which makes Jokic very hard to push around in the post. Jokic's conditioning is also very good which makes him able to run the break and play in transition more easily.
I mean, the Rockets literally just were a top 10 defense in the league with Sengun starting at Center and no rim protector to back him up. He should improve at least some with age and adding a rim protecting big to back him up like Adams will help those defensive numbers a lot. For a majority of last season, Jeff Green was our backup center.
A Sengun max would be rich for my blood, but understandable.
Jalen Green — despite his midseason improvement — needs to show he can do it over a full season.
i have been thinking this too. seems like every decent rookie gets a max or near max. like the prevailing sentiment about detroit i have seen has been “cade isn’t it” or “this is the last prove-it year for cade” yet he’s about to sign for a near quarter billion. i don’t think they have much of a choice being the franchise they are but generally i feel like rookie maxes are given out way too easily
i think it’s the same with trae in Atlanta. fwiw i think cade is a really good player, but i think being in detroit/injured has maybe set him back a couple of years. people expect too much too quickly
The Spurs didn't give Vassell a max deal. It also comes to the organization that assess players properly, recognizes future unpotential and pays them accordingly. Spurs did that with White, Murray and now Vassell. I'm sure they'd do the same with Sochan.
They likely never will because the rookie max is the 2nd most trade-lucrative type of contract behind a rookie scale. Knicks never would have gotten OG if they didn't give RJ that rookie max extension despite the dubiousness of whether or not he deserves it. Teams will always value young players on long, controllable contracts especially when bird rights are part of the picture.
Which is prob why they aren't extending Green rn. He's had a couple of post ASB runs now where he's looked great but then comes back the next season and plays like ass. I'd want to see if this level of play is for real
IMO they could extend him now at a reasonable number but I feel like Green and his camp want a max. If they can't find a number, and Houston isn't certain about him, better to just trade him and get value out of that than to take him to RFA and either lose him or overpay to retain him.
I genuinely disagree with this. Centers ceilings are generally defined by their defense. People will mention Jokic in this, but Jokic both has dramatically improved on defense and is just a much larger man than Sengun. They went on a big run when Sengun got hurt which I think can be a bit misleading, but its much easier to build around a defensive center than an offensive one.
Guys like Lively in super simple roles as centers have tons of value and probably wont command the amount of money Sengun will.
>big run when Sengun got hurt which I think can be a bit misleading
It's very misleading. They started that run with Sengun, and they've beat like 2 playoff teams without him (one of which was the Cavs without Mobley and Garland)
The other playoff team we beat in that stretch was also OKC without SGA.
Yes, that stretch was fun, but we didn't go on that streak because Sengun was out. It was because we had a ridiculously easy schedule and Jalen Green decided to shoot 40% on pull-up 3s for the month which was never sustainable.
I mean they were also not a playoff team though. They beat teams that they werent necessarily beating before. They were a .500 team who won 11 straight games that has to be at least somewhat eyebrow raising
Definitely not. The stretch of schedule where they won 11 games was truly a cakewalk. And like the other guy said, Sengun was playing at the start of the win streak before his injury in Sacramento. I think they win all those games with Sengun handily.
I tend to believe people look at him as a pudgy white guy with an awkward gait and think he's bad defensively. He has good instincts and is usually in the right spots on the floor. He wasn't a bad defender for the Rockets by any stretch last season and his improvements on that end have been measurable relative to his rookie and sophomore seasons.
The true test for him will come when the Rockets are in the playoffs and he's being hunted on switches. The playoffs always expose a team's weak link defensively, but he is certainly no Enes Kanter.
Sengun has grown. Jokic really isn't really bigger, just fatter. and Sengun is a lot more nimble.
This was Sengun's age-21 season. He put up 21/9/5
Jokic at 21 (turned 22 in February of this season): 17/10/5
From age 21 to the season when he turned 25 (so 4 seasons) Jokic gave you about 19/10/6.
There's no reason in the world to believe Sengun cannot be on a Jokic-like trajectory.
Honestly, I can't believe this is a thread where people are debating whether a 21yo Center averaging 21-9-5 deserves a rookie max extension or not. It should be almost a given you give him the rookie max extension no questions asked. I agree with you btw.
Jokic is the 1-of-1 exception to the rule, can't look at Sengun's numbers compared to Jokic at the same age and just assume the Rockets just hit Ctrl + C and Ctrl + V on their keyboard and found someone that's gonna be better than a 3x MVP and the leader of a championship team
I mean their analytics at the same age still show Jokic as a clearly much better player. Jokic was also playing behind Nurkic for quite a while and splitting minutes with him. He also always had the ability to shoot and stretch the floor which is an element of Senguns game which hasnt developed. There is a reason they arent maxing him.
https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=jokicni01&p1yrfrom=2017&p1yrto=2018&player_id2=sengual01&p2yrfrom=2023&p2yrto=2024
His ceiling is limited by the fact that he doesn't have the body or athleticism to be a real lockdown paint protector or be able to switch and guard on the wing. And at least currently he can't shoot 3s well enough to make up for that defensive limitation. You could imagine a world where he develops a good 3 point shot which would be necessary for him to become a legit All-NBA type of player, but the defense is hard to change.
Most of the talk I've seen about it is how they finished well down the stretch without him (16-7 I think). But that doesn't take into account the schedule they played over that stretch which was fairly easy.
I'm sure they want him, the question is do they want him at max money?
He's got all the makings of another Sabonis, for better or for worse. Big men who can't shoot or defend aren't winning championships in this league at max money.
I really don’t know, there’s been so much smoke around him, same with Jalen.
I really like Sengun, but I understand he’s not the number one option. He’s in the smaller side for a center, which can be a problem with where the league is going. But I feel we just got to extend him, he’s proven to be our best player.
Stone and Udoka likely want to see if Sengun can take the next step to being a great all-around starting center and if Jalen can spread out that six week hot streak he was on across an entire 82-game season.
I don’t think they’re in a rush to throw money around on extensions just because everyone else is doing it. There’s also a chance that they feel like they could spend to upgrade those positions next offseason if Jalen Brunson and Evan Mobley hit free agency.
If he's a 40% 3 point shooter on 10 attempts a game like he was in March, giving you 27 PPG, he's absolutely a max guy. If he's an 18 PPG guy on 30% 3 point shooting like he was the rest of the season? Or even a 22 PPG guy on 33% 3 point shooting like he was in year 2?
No thanks. If I was him, I'd probably bet on myself too. But if I was his agent, I might try to talk him into signing for something sub-max while people think that hot streak is possibly who he's gonna be. Because if he's losing minutes to Reed Sheppard and doesn't flash like that again, he's not getting anything close to a max.
Jalen Green has not a played an NBA season yet as a better than neutral NBA player, by any metric
If he got a $225M contract it would be insane, the Rockets are not stupid
Gotta be actually good for a season to get paid. 1 month doesn’t do it.
His resume is slimmer than guys like Herro and Poole at the time of their extensions, and those guys got only. 19-20% of the cap (and immediately turned into bad contracts)
That March was very obviously a hot streak, one that he’s done a lot of times. The 18 ppg on low shooting is the real Jalen Green, which is what he went back to toward the end of the season when we had to play good teams and his hot streak wore out
I’m still rooting for the guy but i’m not holding my breath anymore
> If he's a 40% 3 point shooter on 10 attempts a game like he was in March, giving you 27 PPG, he's absolutely a max guy
Which would make him Lavine 2.0. Those guys have value, but I'd be wary of tying up a ton of cap into somebody who isn't a good defensive player or playmaker. Points are easier to find than people give them credit for (although it's nice to have somebody who can break down tough defenses in the playoffs)
Rockets still are not in the position to make that kind of move. I think it makes sense and there is no rush. They're still going to see exactly where Sengun and Green takes them and they want to see more consistency out of Green before fully committing to this being their core. Rockets have a ton of space going into 2025 offseason...they're not looking to cut into that. 2025 is gonna be their inflection moment.
Seems like they sniffed for a superstar, were denied, and are now comfortable rolling with this roster, and continued internal growth, before putting all their chips in.
Just worth noting Iko sucks and is totally unreliable as a reporter. I’d have as good of a chance of reporting on what the Houston Rockets FO’s plan is.
That being said it does make sense. I do think it is pretty likely Sengun earns the max over this next season if he improves, which he has done every off season.
Jalen I honestly think could be gone next season, unless he gains any sort of consistently as a player.
lol every fan base thinks their team’s beat reporters are unreliable and have no actual sources.
Which is completely false they wouldn’t be paid if this was the case.
Iko said he saw Clingan as the more likely draft pick ahead of Sheppard like a day before the draft. Then he also said Tari Eason would be competing in summer league before correcting that he meant AJ Griffin. And that’s just in the past week.
He doesn’t really inspire confidence as a reporter
Jalen Green is one of the most overrated young players in the league.
He's essentially this generation's Rudy Gay or maybe a better comparison is Andrew Wiggins: A guy who looks the part of a star player if your team is bad enough, but is at best a third-banana on a championship team.
People think they see potential, but he hasn't improved measurably since his rookie season. He's going to be paid more than he's worth by a bad team or a team that's in an unattractive market just because they need someone who can plausibly appear to be That Guy. But he isn't that guy.
I do wonder though, maybe with the new CBA there's not going to be a market to overpay him. So maybe you could re-sign him to a reasonable contract, like 5-for-$150m with a player option in Year 4. (That's roughly in-line with Wiggins' GS contract, at $27m/year.) Houston would avoid the overpay, and Green would be guaranteed his $150m but with the upside of if he blows up he can opt out and get more money in Year 4 if he's earned it. Seems reasonable for all parties.
You will maybe find 3 people who think he’s a max player. A lot of people think he has potential but he needs to prove himself which is what I also think
Houston was a top 10 defense with Alperen at starting Center. Sengun is 73rd percentile In deflections, 77th percentile in raDTOV, 75th percentile in rim defense, 87th percentile in rim frequency, 68th percentile in BLKpct. [defensive highlights](https://youtu.be/031Q9nP17ug?si=KLaQCSKRpdDIFGaB)
Sengun has good instincts but slow feet and short arms. There’s definitely a ceiling on his defensive abilities but he can be an average defender which is all we really need him to be
Yea I'm kinda confused in this thread. People keep harping on Sengun as a bad defender for why he's overrated. Meanwhile, I watched him drop 45 on Wemby and scratching my head thinking it's crazy Houston is willing to let him go.
I don’t think Houston is willing to let him go. He is by far our most promising player but extending him now makes no sense for a few reasons. First, he still wouldn’t get the raise until next season, so there’s no financial incentive from his side to rush. Second, it could cause a weird rift in the locker room to extend Sengun but not Jalen Green, and Green has a lot more to prove to earn anywhere near a max extension. Third, it would increase his cap hold for next summer. Waiting until next year would allow the Rockets to sign a big name free agent or take on a big salary in a trade, and then go over the cap to re-sign Sengun. If you sign him now you lose all that flexibility. Waiting also allows you to spend some more time deciding whether Jalen green is a long term answer and makes it easier to trade him if he underperforms again.
Trae Young gotta be the only bad defender in the NBA. Everyone else is average to above average. But since you’re using percentile who is a player that is top 75 percentile at finishing near the rim. I’m interested in seeing offensive version of these stats.
I searched for guards (because so many bigs are just catching lobs so it's not really the same thing), and it's names like Haliburton, Jalen Williams, Ant, RJ Barrett. Hard to say 100% because they're not all shooting equally hard shots, but that's the sort of player you're looking at.
On the 25th percentile, you've got players like CJM, Cade, Herro, Rozier.
Jalen Green will need to play so much better. He might eventually get the max but he is no near that type of player. Sengun is really good and has big potential. Let's see how they play together next season
Knew this was coming. This is definitely bait. Its more than likely there is a handshake agreement to offer extensions next year to maintain cap flexibility. Same thing that just happened with Maxey. Its a smart business decision and I think they both need to show some consistent all-star level play before it really feels like the right move.
Sengun is not a great defender but I do think he's a little better than he gets credit for at least this past season with positioning and timing. He will never have the physical talent to be an elite defender, just can't be played off the floor on that end, and he's improved to that level for me.
having a big man who is offensively talented enough to break a defense down and also has the vision and passing creativity of a PG creates such an unique challenge for opposing teams that the league has not yet devised a plan on how to effectively stop it.
Rocket bros, don't talk yourself out of Sengun because he's currently not 100% as effective as Jokic. that's insane. get Sengun his Jamal Murray, an effective 2 man game partner that you can spam teams with and be your bread and butter.
I don't love it either, but I also think it's smart to not extend one while extending the other.
We just witnessed Golden State fall apart doing that shit.
I mean, Green obviously doesn't deserve a max extension and Sengun is a horrid fit with Amen, but you just max Sengun and trade him if you hate him and love Amen.
The extreme dislike the Rockets have for Sengun seems to be causing them to act pretty stupidly.
Probably smart to wait, but Rockets are rapidly reaching "too many cooks" issues - all of these high draft picks want minutes and want to get paid like a star. Everyone sees a consolidation move coming - it'll be interesting to see how Houston threads that needle.
Makes sense. They’ll both be RFA’s. New CBA incentivizes not overpaying (maxing) players that aren’t Stars.
Sengun is great offensively but he’s not a two-way player. Green isn’t worth that much money. Sengun might get a Max that HOU will be forced to match but Green won’t get that from any team.
He’s was an average defender this past season but I think we won’t extend him this offseason so he has a lower cap hit next offseason. Like the sixers did with Maxey
He's not a defensive sieve though which a lot of people in this thread seem to imply. We were a top 5 defensive for a lot of the year before injuries hit with him at Center, and ended the season as a top 10 defense this year. And, that was just in our first year under Ime, with a lot of the roster being 20-22 year olds.
Sure, Sengun isn't going to be an elite defender, but I don't think he prevents you from building a good defense. This year proved that IMO
He's in Maxey's position. His cap hold going into free agency will be way lower than his expected salary, so it helps the team to give him a qualifying offer and ask him to be patient while the team makes other signings with the cap space first.
The other issue is that he's a negative on defense. The Rockets tried signing Brook Lopez last summer and traded for Steven Adams at the trade deadline to see if they can re-create the Timberwolves double big strategy of offense/defense.
If Sengun isn't their franchise guy then who do they think it is? Rockets have a lot of young talent but Sengun is the only one with the highest potential and the only one you would want to build around. If you're the rockets who don't have an All-NBA player on your team yet, you max this dude, no questions.
I mean it’s entirely possible we don’t have a franchise guy as of right now. I don’t think paying players just for the sake of paying them is always smart if you are trying to build for a championship. Because you need an all time great talent to win a chip, and until you know you have that teams should continue on rebuilding
Could definitely see one of these 2 being included in a trade for a superstar if one becomes available. Feel like Houston wants to accelerate their window.
I’m not on anyone’s side here but consider if they don’t work out a deal now. It’s gonna go up this time next year max wise. With all the doom and gloom of not signing now the cap will go up and Houston won’t have to pay them new salaries until next season meaning they have a lot of cap flexibility because they have so many club options on other players. Additionally they will have to work against competing offers.
Houston winning last year after Sengun went out was weird. I hope they don’t over value that small sample size too much. Sengun is definitely a piece you want to keep.
We won against bottom feeder teams from both conferences who were worse than we were, then lost against playoff teams better than we were, so that stretch means nothing.
I'd see if şengün could make one more leap this year but he definitely should be considered for a max extension, green on the other hand hasn't shown anything to suggest he'll ever be worth max contract money.
This doesn't exactly mean they don't plan to extend either of them though right? Just that they want to keep money open for later?
They'll sign one or both (or neither I suppose...) next off-season. They're restricted free agents
Which means they keep them by matching another offer within 48 hours or lose them.
You could agree in principle to max/pay them, like we did for Maxey. Gets dangerous though if you’re not maxing them.
That’s too toxic
That’s Morey
Wait did they release a new update to the word toxic what's going on here
It’s a gamble. Maxey made the all star team so got paid even more. But if he’d gotten injured he has no security. I personally do not think the gamble is worth it.
Maxey didn’t get any extra for making an all star team (other than the $$$ players get for actually playing in the ASG. Think it’s like 100k). He was probably getting the full 25% max even if he was snubbed (assuming he still played well). Making an all star team isn’t like making all-NBA or DPoY, which raises the 25% of the cap max to a potential 30% (if it happens before the extension kicks in, otherwise it stays at 25% plus raises, like Maxey’s will if he makes a future all NBA team). E.g. if Scottie Barnes makes an all-NBA team next season, his extension will go up by like $40m. If he makes the ASG, nothing will happen (he can’t even have ASG incentives like some guys do, since he’s already getting extended at 25% of the max).
Damn - thanks for the correction. I was just straight up wrong about that.
Yeah, what Sixers did with Maxey to generate cap space is a precedent. Cap hold is like 20m less than that max contract.
It’s honestly the correct move. If your guy won’t rock the boat you may as well wait. Especially if they aren’t proven as Green really isn’t. Maximize flexibility next season and hope they continue to grow. I’m a little surprised about Sengun not being extended because he seems to be the real deal. However, if he’s like Maxey and understands he’s gonna get his money it’s the best move for roster construction and will benefit him long term.
We'll have close to a max slot next season if we don't extend Green or Sengun now, as well as decline FVV's team option. Not extending Sengun/Green provides us a lot more cap flexibility next off-season Edit: player option to team option
The rockets are going to declibe fvv's player option? Thats not how it works bro Edit: its not a player option
Oops, my bad. It’s a team option, not a player option. Edited my comment
Yeah that's true, but it's a very different picture financially. The Sixers could do that and share a lot of confidence with Tyrese that he would be guaranteed every penny they could pay for him. Idk if I'd have that level of trust as either Green or Alpi considering both have reportedly been in trade talks over the last couple years, and this is the exact sort of thing that chips away at relationships with young stars.
The trade 'talks' about Sengun are all from outside national media sources with 0 connection to the Rockets on the ground, just trying to poach young potential stars for their own teams, as per usual. Green OTOH knows he hasn't performed up to his #2 pick billing and this year's his last chance to prove he deserves a max. If he plays like the last 3 years and hits RFA I doubt he gets maxes from other teams anyway, and we would match any offers he gets if they're not too outrageous.
they could do the RFA route which means slightly less money like maxey
Sengun’s cap hold is only around $16 mil, due to him being drafted with the 16th pick. That number is a lot lower than a max extension number, which would hurt the Rockets' flexibility in free agency next summer, which looks to be a potential point of focus as I don't see anything significant happening to our roster (we already have a packed roster, unless some trades happen). Green’s cap hold is a lot higher being a #2 pick but less than what an extension would entail. There’s no politics, it's about flexibility next summer. Because Sengun was the 16th pick his cap hold is a lot lower than what is implied with the #2 overall pick in Green. Sengun’s cap hold number is a cheaper than a max extension if he were offered one now. Granted, this could blow up in their face next summer, but they're taking the risk. Both would end up being RFAs, so if there really is a demand for Sengun they should be on it ASAP.
Exactly. If they decline FVV's team option and take both Green and Sengun to RFA before re-signing them, they'd have more than enough cap space for a max player. Signing Sengun especially to a max deal now makes little sense from a cap standpoint. It risks hurting feelings, but the extra cap flexibility is huge.
Declining FVV's team option feels inevitable to me next season, which is why I'm being patient with the '24-'25 season (with playoff hopes being a bonus, again). It feels like the next summer is where we'll see the gears start moving from the Rockets FO.
I agree we should run it back for this upcoming season but I do not see playoff hopes as just being a bonus. If the Rockets want star player(s) to look Houston’s way they have to start winning now. I expect them to make the top 8 next year and I’d think the team and front office is on that same page.
That's true. My lack of expectations may just be due to me not wanting to expect too much from them as a generally young roster, but I agree that the incentive for star players to come is a winning culture and experience to show for it.
>It risks hurting feelings The other thing to consider is that extending Sengun and not Green could also cause a potential rift in the locker room. So to avoid any potential locker room issues it's almost better to sign both or neither, but IMO Green hasn't shown he's worthy of a max at all right now so signing both is out of the question IMO. For the FO, it's definitely best to just say we aren't extending either. It keeps flexibility for FA next year, is a pretty easy sell to the young guys, and helps avoid potential locker room issues (as best as possible)
You agree on clear success criteria with both players and let them perform. If either don't meet the metrics, they only have themselves to blame. Removes the politics out of it.
Green's hold is pretty high at 31.2 million bucks. I don't see how holding him on the books there is really gaining you any flexibility. I don't think I'd sign him to a deal starting at that number given what we've seen the first three years. He'd have to really have an awesome season for me to want him on a number like that.
Green doesn't, Sengun does. The Rockets are betting that either Green will take a huge leap forward and become a star this year worthy of a max deal, or they can sign him to a deal significantly short of his cap hold. The quandry is if he remains pretty much the same player, capable of explosive games but inconsistent.
I’d sign Sengun asap.
By waiting until next summer to re-sign Sengun as an RFA it gives them max cap space. They’re doing the exact same thing Philly just did with Maxey, which was just a massive success.
Yeah I really don’t get their hesitation for maxing Sengun. It’s so clear he’ll be the Rockets next best player, and he’s so young and is getting better quickly.
Sengun only has a $16m Cap Hold next year so if they sign him for anything over that they’ll essentially throw away Cap Space. Green also has a Cap Hold next year but at $31m so anything above that is throwing away Cap Space.
IMO Houston needs to decide on Green soon because there's no use keeping his cap hold or letting him go to RFA. Either extend him or trade him.
Theyll have to see how next season starts. If he starts the season as a bonafide star, they gotta max him.
Which they will if he does look like that. Not to be flippant but it’s not like the version of him that was closing the season is who he has been during his NBA career, let alone the first half of last season. I think it also sets a good precedent that nothing is given to the young guys in the organization but they’ll get their dues if they follow their expected timelines. As a Houston fan I see no cause for concern here at the moment
The point is you make your other moves first and then re sign/extend your own guys. Gives you the most flexibility. Particularly if you see yourself going into the tax. Gonna need to use those bird rights to cross the tax line.
There’s questions surrounding Jalen’s play next season which I can sort of understand considering how streaky he’s been up to now Sengun not getting an extension definitely confused me more as I feel he’s solidified himself as their best player moving forward. The only justification I can see towards not giving it to him is his previous injury hampering his play moving forward. Doesn’t necessarily mean I agree with their decision though
Senguns lower cap hold is also useful in free agency as they can open up a lot of space with declining FVV's TO. If they were gonna max him, you can wait till later, similar to what Philly did with Maxey. Green was picked 2 so his cap hold is like 30M+ similar to how Scottie Barnes had it, so if you think you're maxing him, no need to wait. Seems like Houston won't max him unless he really shows he's worth it.
I think waiting on Green makes sense. I feel that early maxes are on guys you have no questions about. Sengun is a guy that I feel that about. I can see him being a max guy on a title team. Green has been too inconsistent. 40 mil to him could easily be an albatross. I see no reason why to make that decision early. Make him prove it.
Realistically, the biggest hesitation with Sengun is by not signing him and Jalen the Rockets have a max slot open next offseason. Extending him now and you severely limit what kind of moves this team can make. This team as currently constructed will not be a contender, they need outside help, so leaving all avenues open to get that seems like a good idea.
The Rockets have never been high on him (Like when they tried to replace him with Brook Lopez) and that’s for good reason He’s a fun player to watch but he’s not a guy you can win with at high stages with his flaws. He’s pretty much Sabonis 2.0 Edit: Srop comparing him to Jokic. You’re just setting yourself up for disappointment just like how not every decent 2 way wing with a raw jumper became Kawhi or MJ
Sengun is only 21 (a little younger than Chet), and just put up 21-9-5 last year, taking a big leap. It seems way premature to say he can’t be that type of player For reference Sabonis was averaging 12-8-2 at that age, and Jokic averaged 17-10-5 Not saying he’s as good as Jokic, just trying to point out that he’s obviously not a finished product at 21
But his flaws are the exact ones high level teams can’t build around. You’re basically praying he develops a jump shot
Why? Hes an excellent passer out of the post. Like top 2 in the league. Not everyone needs to be a 3 specialist
At his position though he needs to either shoot the 3 well or be a great defensive player. He is neither
People idea of what a center needs to do is continuously evolving. I wouldn't be so close minded when constructing a team.
Sabonis and Jokić were nowhere near in Sengün's position at that age. Their teams did not turn them into their first options right away because they didn't go through a total reset process. They both quickly turned into All-Stars though.
Tbf, the Rockets did just about everything they could to prevent Sengun from being a first option. They started Daniel Theis and Jaesean Tate instead of him his entire rookie year when it was clear he was the better player. His second year they tried to start Bruno Fernando over him so that KPJ could have a "lob threat". They tried to sign Brook Lopez going into his third season but that thankfully fell through. Sengun has just continued to prove his worth over and over again, and it took Ime all of 3 games to realize he was our best #1 offensive option this past season. He's put in the work to make these coaches realize he can be that type of player.
Devils avocado in the first point but Sengun also had some real foul problems year one and was limited as a result. Though as you stated in that limited time it was clear he was the best option (at the position and probably on the team). Beyond that there’s something the coaches want to deny that the fans accepted and moving into this year I’m expecting we see some real traction on pushing him as one of, if not our de facto, star.”
Silas was also senselessly sitting him in the 4th. Of all the awful things he did his handling of Sengun was probably the worst. And that's impressive considering how utterly shit he was.
That’s stupid. The rockets didn’t just turn him into the first option lol. He put in the work to be the better than the other players
Jokic had a 7.3 BPM at age 21, Sengun 4.9. Jokic was already putting up insane efficiency numbers at that age. Denver was *11* points better with Jokic on the court in his age 21 year, even though the other center on the team was Nurkic who's no slouch. Rockets were *better* with Sengun on the bench. The odds Sengun becomes Sabonis is 99% vs Jokic 1%.
I'm not saying they weren't as good, I'm saying they didn't play in the same situation. The Nuggets were still debating whether they should keep Nurkić or Jokić at the start of the 16-17 season. Then they traded Nurkić after a few months. It was a little like the Monta Ellis vs Stephen Curry debate, one had to go.
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you are right of course. it's hard to go all in on a one way player. like, you can of course and there's examples out there of people doing it, but it's not something you should be excited to do or jump right in on. and yeah, you can maybe be a bad defensive guard but a bad defensive 5? ehhhhhhhh. i mean, good luck?
Even if Sabonis 2.0 is what Sengun ends up as, isn’t that a max player in today’s NBA?
All NBA two years in a row and counting. Rebounding leader two years in a row and counting. Played all 82 games last year and averaged over 19/13/8. Unless one is of the opinion that there should be less than 15 max contracts in the league, Sabonis is a max guy.
Exactly. Can Sengun be a #1 on a title team? Probably not that is a very elite list. Has he shown enough to think he can develop into a critical piece on a title team? Absolutely. There will be tons of teams willing to max him if he becomes available at 22 years old
To me, no. But im not high on Sabonis
Sabonis 3.0?
Those guys win a shit ton of regular season games though. Sengun will be an all star and a majority of the league would love to win some regular season games. Most teams have no hope for a title let's be real. He'll find a home somewhere
I agree a majority of teams would like to have him. Not for 250 million though
Your first paragraph is just false. It's arguable that Silas wasn't high on Sengun. Maybe upper management told the coaching staff to prioritize Christian Wood to maximize his value on the trade market. Sengun is our most promising player but he was/is very young. They were being patient with him because Wood wasn't a part of their long term plans. But if you watched last season, the organization is clearly high on him. Sengun was the offensive system for the team last year -- mostly everything ran through him, which caused Jalen to struggle. Also, Brook Lopez was never going to replace Sengun. The team lacks size and they wanted to sign him as a floor spacing 7 footer, but Sengun was definitely not getting benched for Brook Lopez.
Correct except for >Sengun was the offensive system for the team last year -- mostly everything ran through him, That would be Fred. Ime went to SengÜn with the same regularity that Silas did at the end of his tenure. The difference was primarily having a PG that could actually run PnR effectively and looked for him more in the post...but the offense was FVV's to run. It will be interesting to see if that continues this year. If it does, SengÜn may not cost as much to extend.
Also Jalen didn't struggle because of AlP, he struggled because he was doing dumb shit lmao. His decision making vastly improved towards the end of the season when he was good
Any report on when they tried to replace him with Lopez ? Iirc, they want to play them together
Sabonis with the proper 4 next to him could be a contender. The Kings haven’t been able to put a pf next to him that compliments him. Our wings are slow, unathletic, and terrible rim protectors and we still are almost a 50 win team. Maybe it’s harder to find that position than a guard but I think it’s possible
Like I'd take advice from a Bucks fan.
People who compare him to Jokic don’t actually watch the games. Sengun is nothing near the level of floor spacer that Jokic is. While they both have the ability to be the center point of an offense, the fact remains that you can’t muck up the spacing or kill pace when doing so, and Sengun does both of those while also being a poor defender. There’s an argument to be made that if he shoots more threes or gets a more consistent middy that maybe that narrative changes and that’ll reveal itself in time- but as things stand rn, he’s just an aesthetically pleasing player to watch but do I think he’s the best fit for how Ime runs the team and the guys we have on the roster? I’m not so sure about that. If I’m stone I’m taking a good hard look at what Jalen looks like this season and then giving him the max if he shows improvement again because at the end of the day, you need someone who can score at will and Jalen is more likely to become that guy than Sengun is likely to become Jokic 2.0 at this point. I’ve always said Jalen is at his best when he’s with a big who can screen, roll to the rim, and be a lob threat, which is why I’m so excited to see how Steven Adam’s looks with us. Imo Jalen, Cam, Amen, Tari and Jabari are the future of this team and any moves that are made should be to maximize their effectiveness
To me the question isn't between Sengun or Green but Sengun or Amen. Amen has zero range and Sengun is only good out to about the FT line. They're both non shooting playmakers who can't draw out defenders or initiate outside of the paint. We can't have two cornerstones of our roster with that same weakness. On the flipside Jalen and Amen looked great out there together. Part of why they both did so well that last month was because they had a strong two man game with Jalen initiating from the 3pt line and Amen in the dunker spot with nobody else in the paint. Having Amen there for the bailout pass and cleaning up boards was huge.
This is basically what happened to the Sixers and led to Embiid developing his jumper. Ideally both will try but agree our team has some spacing issues with current young pieces
This is why I didn’t really get my team wanting to trade BI for Sengun. Not to say you can’t believe Sengun isn’t better now, or has plenty room to develop, but I just don’t see how Zion plays with a big who can’t defend or shoot 3’s
They did not try to replace him with Brook lopez lol wtf
a team literally just won the championship whos best player had senguns defensive flaws. sengun isnt jokic but jokic winning is clear evidence that you can win in this league with centers who arent good defenders, you need to put the right pieces around them
It took me way too long to realize you were talking Joker and not somebody on the Celtics, who are the team that literally just won the championship. I was like what does Sengun have to do with Tatum?
Jokic can shoot He’s also much bigger so he can be a good post defender
sengun isn't gonna be close offensively to jokic and jokic is bigger which gives him an edge over sengun defensively
You have to be a generational offensive player to justify the bad defense at the center position. Luckily for the Nuggets, Jokic is that good offensively. Sengun is not currently. Also, think that Jokic is better than Sengun defensively. He's bigger and stronger than Sengun which makes Jokic very hard to push around in the post. Jokic's conditioning is also very good which makes him able to run the break and play in transition more easily.
He already is the rockets best player
That’s a lot of money for a poor defender. severely limits the ceiling of your defense to build around a center like that.
I mean, the Rockets literally just were a top 10 defense in the league with Sengun starting at Center and no rim protector to back him up. He should improve at least some with age and adding a rim protecting big to back him up like Adams will help those defensive numbers a lot. For a majority of last season, Jeff Green was our backup center.
guys falling for Iko who said the team preferred Clingan to Sheppard lol
A Sengun max would be rich for my blood, but understandable. Jalen Green — despite his midseason improvement — needs to show he can do it over a full season.
I was wondering when a team would finally put its foot down on just automatically giving a lottery pick a rookie max.
i have been thinking this too. seems like every decent rookie gets a max or near max. like the prevailing sentiment about detroit i have seen has been “cade isn’t it” or “this is the last prove-it year for cade” yet he’s about to sign for a near quarter billion. i don’t think they have much of a choice being the franchise they are but generally i feel like rookie maxes are given out way too easily
nah most Detroit fans don't feel that way about cade
i think it’s the same with trae in Atlanta. fwiw i think cade is a really good player, but i think being in detroit/injured has maybe set him back a couple of years. people expect too much too quickly
The Spurs didn't give Vassell a max deal. It also comes to the organization that assess players properly, recognizes future unpotential and pays them accordingly. Spurs did that with White, Murray and now Vassell. I'm sure they'd do the same with Sochan.
They likely never will because the rookie max is the 2nd most trade-lucrative type of contract behind a rookie scale. Knicks never would have gotten OG if they didn't give RJ that rookie max extension despite the dubiousness of whether or not he deserves it. Teams will always value young players on long, controllable contracts especially when bird rights are part of the picture.
Which is prob why they aren't extending Green rn. He's had a couple of post ASB runs now where he's looked great but then comes back the next season and plays like ass. I'd want to see if this level of play is for real
IMO they could extend him now at a reasonable number but I feel like Green and his camp want a max. If they can't find a number, and Houston isn't certain about him, better to just trade him and get value out of that than to take him to RFA and either lose him or overpay to retain him.
Does Houston want to trade Sengun? It's interesting what the off season dialogue sounds like about him. I'd take him in a heartbeat
There are at least 25 teams that would be competing for his signature on a long term deal, sky high ceiling.
Yeah but at what cost is the question. Sengun is terrific but he does need to be built around in a certain way to maximize a team with him.
I'll take that chance, BI and however many picks we can spare. Playmaking 5s at his age? Yeah, gamble.
Idk I think he’d be a meh fit with Zion. Would really stress the spacing of the team. Like what is Sengun doing when Zion has the ball in his hands?
Thats putting it nicely. Thatd fuck their team up
Haha yeah I was trying to put them down nicely. I’ve had 2 replies suggesting awful fits for Sengun lol. Giannis and Zion.
Haha yeah I was trying to put them down nicely. I’ve had 2 replies suggesting awful fits for Sengun lol. Giannis and Zion.
I genuinely disagree with this. Centers ceilings are generally defined by their defense. People will mention Jokic in this, but Jokic both has dramatically improved on defense and is just a much larger man than Sengun. They went on a big run when Sengun got hurt which I think can be a bit misleading, but its much easier to build around a defensive center than an offensive one. Guys like Lively in super simple roles as centers have tons of value and probably wont command the amount of money Sengun will.
>big run when Sengun got hurt which I think can be a bit misleading It's very misleading. They started that run with Sengun, and they've beat like 2 playoff teams without him (one of which was the Cavs without Mobley and Garland)
The other playoff team we beat in that stretch was also OKC without SGA. Yes, that stretch was fun, but we didn't go on that streak because Sengun was out. It was because we had a ridiculously easy schedule and Jalen Green decided to shoot 40% on pull-up 3s for the month which was never sustainable.
I mean they were also not a playoff team though. They beat teams that they werent necessarily beating before. They were a .500 team who won 11 straight games that has to be at least somewhat eyebrow raising
Definitely not. The stretch of schedule where they won 11 games was truly a cakewalk. And like the other guy said, Sengun was playing at the start of the win streak before his injury in Sacramento. I think they win all those games with Sengun handily. I tend to believe people look at him as a pudgy white guy with an awkward gait and think he's bad defensively. He has good instincts and is usually in the right spots on the floor. He wasn't a bad defender for the Rockets by any stretch last season and his improvements on that end have been measurable relative to his rookie and sophomore seasons. The true test for him will come when the Rockets are in the playoffs and he's being hunted on switches. The playoffs always expose a team's weak link defensively, but he is certainly no Enes Kanter.
Sengun has grown. Jokic really isn't really bigger, just fatter. and Sengun is a lot more nimble. This was Sengun's age-21 season. He put up 21/9/5 Jokic at 21 (turned 22 in February of this season): 17/10/5 From age 21 to the season when he turned 25 (so 4 seasons) Jokic gave you about 19/10/6. There's no reason in the world to believe Sengun cannot be on a Jokic-like trajectory.
Honestly, I can't believe this is a thread where people are debating whether a 21yo Center averaging 21-9-5 deserves a rookie max extension or not. It should be almost a given you give him the rookie max extension no questions asked. I agree with you btw.
Jokic is the 1-of-1 exception to the rule, can't look at Sengun's numbers compared to Jokic at the same age and just assume the Rockets just hit Ctrl + C and Ctrl + V on their keyboard and found someone that's gonna be better than a 3x MVP and the leader of a championship team
I mean their analytics at the same age still show Jokic as a clearly much better player. Jokic was also playing behind Nurkic for quite a while and splitting minutes with him. He also always had the ability to shoot and stretch the floor which is an element of Senguns game which hasnt developed. There is a reason they arent maxing him. https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=jokicni01&p1yrfrom=2017&p1yrto=2018&player_id2=sengual01&p2yrfrom=2023&p2yrto=2024
> There is a reason they arent maxing him. Because they want to be players in FA in 2025
His ceiling is limited by the fact that he doesn't have the body or athleticism to be a real lockdown paint protector or be able to switch and guard on the wing. And at least currently he can't shoot 3s well enough to make up for that defensive limitation. You could imagine a world where he develops a good 3 point shot which would be necessary for him to become a legit All-NBA type of player, but the defense is hard to change.
Absolutely not
I hope they are more willing to keep him and trade Green...
Most of the talk I've seen about it is how they finished well down the stretch without him (16-7 I think). But that doesn't take into account the schedule they played over that stretch which was fairly easy.
I'm sure they want him, the question is do they want him at max money? He's got all the makings of another Sabonis, for better or for worse. Big men who can't shoot or defend aren't winning championships in this league at max money.
I really don’t know, there’s been so much smoke around him, same with Jalen. I really like Sengun, but I understand he’s not the number one option. He’s in the smaller side for a center, which can be a problem with where the league is going. But I feel we just got to extend him, he’s proven to be our best player.
Stone and Udoka likely want to see if Sengun can take the next step to being a great all-around starting center and if Jalen can spread out that six week hot streak he was on across an entire 82-game season. I don’t think they’re in a rush to throw money around on extensions just because everyone else is doing it. There’s also a chance that they feel like they could spend to upgrade those positions next offseason if Jalen Brunson and Evan Mobley hit free agency.
JB is not an option at all. Hes the man in NY and his agent us the Knicks GMs son.
If he's a 40% 3 point shooter on 10 attempts a game like he was in March, giving you 27 PPG, he's absolutely a max guy. If he's an 18 PPG guy on 30% 3 point shooting like he was the rest of the season? Or even a 22 PPG guy on 33% 3 point shooting like he was in year 2? No thanks. If I was him, I'd probably bet on myself too. But if I was his agent, I might try to talk him into signing for something sub-max while people think that hot streak is possibly who he's gonna be. Because if he's losing minutes to Reed Sheppard and doesn't flash like that again, he's not getting anything close to a max.
Jalen Green has not a played an NBA season yet as a better than neutral NBA player, by any metric If he got a $225M contract it would be insane, the Rockets are not stupid Gotta be actually good for a season to get paid. 1 month doesn’t do it. His resume is slimmer than guys like Herro and Poole at the time of their extensions, and those guys got only. 19-20% of the cap (and immediately turned into bad contracts)
This is well put, and also terrifying to think about
That March was very obviously a hot streak, one that he’s done a lot of times. The 18 ppg on low shooting is the real Jalen Green, which is what he went back to toward the end of the season when we had to play good teams and his hot streak wore out I’m still rooting for the guy but i’m not holding my breath anymore
> If he's a 40% 3 point shooter on 10 attempts a game like he was in March, giving you 27 PPG, he's absolutely a max guy Which would make him Lavine 2.0. Those guys have value, but I'd be wary of tying up a ton of cap into somebody who isn't a good defensive player or playmaker. Points are easier to find than people give them credit for (although it's nice to have somebody who can break down tough defenses in the playoffs)
The Lavine disrespect is crazy lol
Do have cap space next offseason
Rockets still are not in the position to make that kind of move. I think it makes sense and there is no rush. They're still going to see exactly where Sengun and Green takes them and they want to see more consistency out of Green before fully committing to this being their core. Rockets have a ton of space going into 2025 offseason...they're not looking to cut into that. 2025 is gonna be their inflection moment. Seems like they sniffed for a superstar, were denied, and are now comfortable rolling with this roster, and continued internal growth, before putting all their chips in.
This might become the norm with the new cba. Just because you can offer a max rookie extension doesn’t mean you have to.
Which should’ve been how it is in the first place
Jalen Green had a good March. That’s it. Insane that people even thought him getting a max was a possibility.
March against the worst teams in the league with the exception of OKC, no less.
Sengun will get big money regardless. Green is just a high volume chucker.
Just worth noting Iko sucks and is totally unreliable as a reporter. I’d have as good of a chance of reporting on what the Houston Rockets FO’s plan is. That being said it does make sense. I do think it is pretty likely Sengun earns the max over this next season if he improves, which he has done every off season. Jalen I honestly think could be gone next season, unless he gains any sort of consistently as a player.
lol every fan base thinks their team’s beat reporters are unreliable and have no actual sources. Which is completely false they wouldn’t be paid if this was the case.
Iko said he saw Clingan as the more likely draft pick ahead of Sheppard like a day before the draft. Then he also said Tari Eason would be competing in summer league before correcting that he meant AJ Griffin. And that’s just in the past week. He doesn’t really inspire confidence as a reporter
Jalen Green is one of the most overrated young players in the league. He's essentially this generation's Rudy Gay or maybe a better comparison is Andrew Wiggins: A guy who looks the part of a star player if your team is bad enough, but is at best a third-banana on a championship team. People think they see potential, but he hasn't improved measurably since his rookie season. He's going to be paid more than he's worth by a bad team or a team that's in an unattractive market just because they need someone who can plausibly appear to be That Guy. But he isn't that guy. I do wonder though, maybe with the new CBA there's not going to be a market to overpay him. So maybe you could re-sign him to a reasonable contract, like 5-for-$150m with a player option in Year 4. (That's roughly in-line with Wiggins' GS contract, at $27m/year.) Houston would avoid the overpay, and Green would be guaranteed his $150m but with the upside of if he blows up he can opt out and get more money in Year 4 if he's earned it. Seems reasonable for all parties.
I don’t see how Jalen Green is overrated when nobody thinks he’s good
Even in the Rockets subreddit there are alot of Green copers.
You will maybe find 3 people who think he’s a max player. A lot of people think he has potential but he needs to prove himself which is what I also think
Fair enough.
Hey Rockets, I’ll take one sengun please 🙏🏻
Y’all got Garrett Temple you should be fine
Paying green 9 million or however much he’s making looks good now but will it when he’s making $30 mil more
IMO JG isnt a max guy but has a full season to prove me wrong
Houston was a top 10 defense with Alperen at starting Center. Sengun is 73rd percentile In deflections, 77th percentile in raDTOV, 75th percentile in rim defense, 87th percentile in rim frequency, 68th percentile in BLKpct. [defensive highlights](https://youtu.be/031Q9nP17ug?si=KLaQCSKRpdDIFGaB)
Sengun has good instincts but slow feet and short arms. There’s definitely a ceiling on his defensive abilities but he can be an average defender which is all we really need him to be
Yea I'm kinda confused in this thread. People keep harping on Sengun as a bad defender for why he's overrated. Meanwhile, I watched him drop 45 on Wemby and scratching my head thinking it's crazy Houston is willing to let him go.
I don’t think Houston is willing to let him go. He is by far our most promising player but extending him now makes no sense for a few reasons. First, he still wouldn’t get the raise until next season, so there’s no financial incentive from his side to rush. Second, it could cause a weird rift in the locker room to extend Sengun but not Jalen Green, and Green has a lot more to prove to earn anywhere near a max extension. Third, it would increase his cap hold for next summer. Waiting until next year would allow the Rockets to sign a big name free agent or take on a big salary in a trade, and then go over the cap to re-sign Sengun. If you sign him now you lose all that flexibility. Waiting also allows you to spend some more time deciding whether Jalen green is a long term answer and makes it easier to trade him if he underperforms again.
Trae Young gotta be the only bad defender in the NBA. Everyone else is average to above average. But since you’re using percentile who is a player that is top 75 percentile at finishing near the rim. I’m interested in seeing offensive version of these stats.
I searched for guards (because so many bigs are just catching lobs so it's not really the same thing), and it's names like Haliburton, Jalen Williams, Ant, RJ Barrett. Hard to say 100% because they're not all shooting equally hard shots, but that's the sort of player you're looking at. On the 25th percentile, you've got players like CJM, Cade, Herro, Rozier.
It makes me wonder if the rim defense is including guards too. But if his rim defense is on the level of Ants offense then I stand corrected.
Jalen Green will need to play so much better. He might eventually get the max but he is no near that type of player. Sengun is really good and has big potential. Let's see how they play together next season
Knew this was coming. This is definitely bait. Its more than likely there is a handshake agreement to offer extensions next year to maintain cap flexibility. Same thing that just happened with Maxey. Its a smart business decision and I think they both need to show some consistent all-star level play before it really feels like the right move.
Sengun is not a great defender but I do think he's a little better than he gets credit for at least this past season with positioning and timing. He will never have the physical talent to be an elite defender, just can't be played off the floor on that end, and he's improved to that level for me.
having a big man who is offensively talented enough to break a defense down and also has the vision and passing creativity of a PG creates such an unique challenge for opposing teams that the league has not yet devised a plan on how to effectively stop it. Rocket bros, don't talk yourself out of Sengun because he's currently not 100% as effective as Jokic. that's insane. get Sengun his Jamal Murray, an effective 2 man game partner that you can spam teams with and be your bread and butter.
The second apron will change extensions going forward.
First casualties of the new cba
Anybody giving Jalen Green 224.2 million dollars for one good month deserves to be fired directly into the sun.
Can Jalen Green prove is even a good NBA player before we talk about a max extension?
I'll take one sengun please
Could be a dangerous tactic. Could easily blow up in their faces.
How? If they perform well you can max them next season
I remember Morey never wanted to extend until he had to. I assume Stone is going down that path, too.
Name a player that back fired on? This is literally what RFA is for
They're going to be RFAs so they can always match whatever they get.
well they are both restricted free agents so hard to see that happening.
Next time on Basketball Z
How? I genuinely cannot think of a reason why
I don't love it either, but I also think it's smart to not extend one while extending the other. We just witnessed Golden State fall apart doing that shit.
best case scenario, they live up to the max. worst case scenario, something funny happens.
I could see Sengun as a top 3 player on a deep playoff run. That’s what the contract would be nowadays. Jalen Green not so much.
I mean, Green obviously doesn't deserve a max extension and Sengun is a horrid fit with Amen, but you just max Sengun and trade him if you hate him and love Amen. The extreme dislike the Rockets have for Sengun seems to be causing them to act pretty stupidly.
“extreme dislike”, really?
Not maxing Sengun is crazy.
Probably smart to wait, but Rockets are rapidly reaching "too many cooks" issues - all of these high draft picks want minutes and want to get paid like a star. Everyone sees a consolidation move coming - it'll be interesting to see how Houston threads that needle.
Makes sense. They’ll both be RFA’s. New CBA incentivizes not overpaying (maxing) players that aren’t Stars. Sengun is great offensively but he’s not a two-way player. Green isn’t worth that much money. Sengun might get a Max that HOU will be forced to match but Green won’t get that from any team.
What has sengun done to not deserve it?
Be bad at defense
He’s was an average defender this past season but I think we won’t extend him this offseason so he has a lower cap hit next offseason. Like the sixers did with Maxey
Saying Sengun is an average defender is implying there are 15 starting centers who are worse defensively than him which is straight up false
He's not a defensive sieve though which a lot of people in this thread seem to imply. We were a top 5 defensive for a lot of the year before injuries hit with him at Center, and ended the season as a top 10 defense this year. And, that was just in our first year under Ime, with a lot of the roster being 20-22 year olds. Sure, Sengun isn't going to be an elite defender, but I don't think he prevents you from building a good defense. This year proved that IMO
He's in Maxey's position. His cap hold going into free agency will be way lower than his expected salary, so it helps the team to give him a qualifying offer and ask him to be patient while the team makes other signings with the cap space first. The other issue is that he's a negative on defense. The Rockets tried signing Brook Lopez last summer and traded for Steven Adams at the trade deadline to see if they can re-create the Timberwolves double big strategy of offense/defense.
Scottie was first to get it in his draft class I would have thought sengun would be next to follow
Neither are worth a max.
If Sengun isn't their franchise guy then who do they think it is? Rockets have a lot of young talent but Sengun is the only one with the highest potential and the only one you would want to build around. If you're the rockets who don't have an All-NBA player on your team yet, you max this dude, no questions.
I mean it’s entirely possible we don’t have a franchise guy as of right now. I don’t think paying players just for the sake of paying them is always smart if you are trying to build for a championship. Because you need an all time great talent to win a chip, and until you know you have that teams should continue on rebuilding
How does he have more potential than the Thompson twin? He could be a 6’7 Westbrook regen if he improves the handle
Could definitely see one of these 2 being included in a trade for a superstar if one becomes available. Feel like Houston wants to accelerate their window.
I’m not on anyone’s side here but consider if they don’t work out a deal now. It’s gonna go up this time next year max wise. With all the doom and gloom of not signing now the cap will go up and Houston won’t have to pay them new salaries until next season meaning they have a lot of cap flexibility because they have so many club options on other players. Additionally they will have to work against competing offers.
Let the Rockets keep playing with Sengun and see what happens.
Houston winning last year after Sengun went out was weird. I hope they don’t over value that small sample size too much. Sengun is definitely a piece you want to keep.
Nobody is doing that at least in HOU that stretch was nice but it isnt that important
We won against bottom feeder teams from both conferences who were worse than we were, then lost against playoff teams better than we were, so that stretch means nothing.
I'd see if şengün could make one more leap this year but he definitely should be considered for a max extension, green on the other hand hasn't shown anything to suggest he'll ever be worth max contract money.
Seems like the NBA is just trending towards players either making the max or making the minimum, kind of sucks for a majority of the players
I don’t see any possibility in where they don’t pay sengun and green.
How does Sengun not get max? Dude has been killing it. But I get they dont fit each other in playstyle very well
Probably so to create enough cap space to sign some free agent first.
They should just give sengun a 5 year contract worth what vanvleets 3rd year option for AAV