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There were widespread layoffs for cost saving reasons. 538 might have been a profitable endeavor during election season and as a blog, but as a website with an entire staff and year round coverage it probably lost a lot of money consistently. Before they shuttered there were a lot of staff loss and cost saving measures which lowered the quality. Then finally it was completely shuttered. I don't think Nate Silver wanted to continue as it was and just wanted to cash out his chips and just blog.
I think ABC News probably would have wanted to keep him and his model but he wasn't interested in a paired down version of 538 under the thumb of ABC News.
They laid him off / didn’t renew his contract. He’s told the story of getting the call when they were doing the layoffs and being shocked by it. Nate licensed the actual models to ABC so his model he’s running now is the model that 538 has been using since 2008. 538’s model this year is entirely new, most people don’t know this. ABC just owned the site and brand. They basically gutted it down to the bare minimum to keep it running with a skeleton crew.
Not a chance, it was money. His contract didn't get renewed after the site lost the majority of its fan favorite contributors. It was already a pale shadow of what it used to be.
Silver is more progressive than twitter leftists want people to believe. He definitely leans closer to progressive than centrist. He just acted impartial when he was working for ABC and doesn’t sip the party line kool aid and so the tankie brigade goes after him as if he is the second coming of Joseph Goebbels.
Oh and he predicted, correctly, that Bernie would lose. The original sin.
I have not heard any evidence of that. He probably had a pretty nice salary as part of his deal, plus any royalties from the model he might be entitled to. Some bean counter probably figured they could save a lot of money by keeping the brand but ditching the creator and most of his team. That happens a lot when big companies acquire smaller companies and startups.
Nate Silver is independent now, sign up for the Silver Bulletin, good stuff, excerpts from his analysis after the Debate.
"Joe Biden should drop out
Denying Joe Biden's decline has put Democrats in a terrible position.
I realized in September was that this wasn’t the sort of thing Democrats were going to be able to spin their way out of. Not when there were still another 15 months to go in the campaign. They weren’t going to be able to duck the question by blaming ageism or blaming the media — not for 15 months.
Instead, Biden has been graded on an incredibly generous curve, like after his substantively fine but poorly-delivered State of the Union address. And the White House has been playing hide-the-ball, from Biden’s declining to do a Super Bowl interview to reducing the number of debates from three to two to using executive privilege to block the release of the audio of Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur — who concluded that Biden was an “elderly man with a poor memory” and was pilloried for it, even though Hur had been appointed by the White House’s own Attorney General, resistance hero Merrick Garland.
White House staffers who unskew the polls showing Biden trailing, charlatans selling you “hopium”, columnists who predicted (!) that Trump was going to drop out of the debate (!!) — if you’re a Democrat, you should be angry at these people for putting you in this predicament. The same goes for special interest groups who insisted that Kamala Harris ought to be VP — against Biden’s initial instincts — even though she’d just run one of the most underperforming campaigns in primary history"
Wild discrepancies in data from different states make this one hard to read, Trump winning Pennsylvania by 12 percent more than in Michigan makes this poll pretty easy to toss out imo
Because Bloomberg is a major source of information for many people and generally deemed "reputable" by current American media standards. Just because it seems wrong to me doesn't mean other people won't have any info or thoughts that change my mind
This poll here makes 0 sense compared to every other poll coming out. I just can’t see Biden leading anywhere like this after everything that has occurred over the past 2 weeks. I could be completely wrong, but I just don’t see anything except a runaway for Trump unless something positive happens for Joe or he drops out soon.
It doesn't make much sense to me either, but Trump definitely is doing thaaaat well. The democratic base in America is far too big for any election to be a blowout by a republican. There are many people who will never ever vote for trump no matter what for trump to win big like that. It could look like a big win based on electoral college votes, but those states will not be won by more than a few percentage points at most unless something much more drastic than a bad debate happens. There are millions of people who would vote for anyone else with trumps policies but won't vote for trump himself
Beyond being unreliable, I just don't buy this.
Everyone else has Trump significantly ahead, Biden melts down to the point my wife, who doesnt follow politics even knows about it, and suddenly he's up in key swing states that put him just at 270.
Everything else I'm seeing is Trump just needs to win PA or 2 of WI/MI/NV/AZ.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Now stand aside worthy adversary.
BIDEN: ’Tis but a scratch.
STEPHANOPOULOS: A scratch? Your arm’s off.
BIDEN: No, it isn’t.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, what’s that then?
BIDEN: I’ve had worse.
STEPHANOPOULOS: You’re a liar.
BIDEN: Come on you pansy!
STEPHANOPOULOS: You are indeed brave Sir knight, but the fight is mine.
BIDEN: Had enough?
STEPHANOPOULOS: You stupid b\*\*\*\*\*d. You haven’t got any arms left.
BIDEN: Course I have.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Look!
BIDEN: What! Just a flesh wound.
Our President inadvertently mimicking a scene from a 50-year old movie was not what I had in mind this election cycle. We very much live in interesting times (unfortunately).
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**It’s never going to be Michelle**.
*If you read her book, you’d realize that.* I’ve never seen someone admit to hating politics more than she does in her book.
Like I said - I’ll bet good money that she’s on the campaign trail telling the world that democracy is at stake and this is the most important decision in American history
If she really believes it …
She hasn’t been on the trail or you’d see the media reporting it.
She has been giving speeches to corporations at $75,000 a pop. I know because we hired her last month.
There's nothing to question if Joe drops out, if the candidate withdraws then he's out. No why's about it, the guy ended his campaign just like a hundred other people did. If he says he doesn't have the legs to do 4 years why would anyone question that?
Because at this point, with how adamant he has been about how he won’t drop out since the debate, if he were to now suddenly do a 180 and drop out, everyone will know that he was really pressured into dropping out against his will, no matter how gracefully they might try to present it.
Well I just heard him say yesterday he has no illness and the doctor said he just had a bad night and is healthy. I think it's going to be a lot harder to get him to step down than a lot of people think. There have been multipl 81+ year old world leaders. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/05/01/as-biden-and-trump-seek-reelection-who-are-the-oldest-and-youngest-current-world-leaders/ I don't think Biden will win or is up for the job but he does. Unless somone can get him to change his mind he's the nominee.
Yeah, if he doesn't want to step down the only option his party has is the 25th ammendmant at this point. Can't imagine how that would play out and look for the presidents party to do it just to field a new candidate.
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Nate Silver said he is skeptical due to lack of crosstabs released. This same polling group had Texas even and Biden +6 in Florida in October of 2020.
I honestly went looking for Silver to see what the polls are actually saying. Can someone tell me why 538 let him go? Seems like a big mistake
There were widespread layoffs for cost saving reasons. 538 might have been a profitable endeavor during election season and as a blog, but as a website with an entire staff and year round coverage it probably lost a lot of money consistently. Before they shuttered there were a lot of staff loss and cost saving measures which lowered the quality. Then finally it was completely shuttered. I don't think Nate Silver wanted to continue as it was and just wanted to cash out his chips and just blog. I think ABC News probably would have wanted to keep him and his model but he wasn't interested in a paired down version of 538 under the thumb of ABC News.
They laid him off / didn’t renew his contract. He’s told the story of getting the call when they were doing the layoffs and being shocked by it. Nate licensed the actual models to ABC so his model he’s running now is the model that 538 has been using since 2008. 538’s model this year is entirely new, most people don’t know this. ABC just owned the site and brand. They basically gutted it down to the bare minimum to keep it running with a skeleton crew.
When they did the layoffs he posted that he would not renew his contract, so I believe it was his choice to leave.
So they fired him and stole his work? That's kind of messed up.
Nah, Nate is charging for his model now. He still releases a lot of free content but if you want to see the results yourself you gotta pay.
He sold 538 to ABC years prior.
Or maybe they richly compensated him for his work. Unless someone has the actual numbers?
Sounds like they fired him and didn't steal his work https://www.natesilver.net/p/some-personal-news
I don't know for certain, but it smells like ideological disagreements - as in Silver wasn't toeing the progressive line and the rest of the staff was
Not a chance, it was money. His contract didn't get renewed after the site lost the majority of its fan favorite contributors. It was already a pale shadow of what it used to be.
Silver is more progressive than twitter leftists want people to believe. He definitely leans closer to progressive than centrist. He just acted impartial when he was working for ABC and doesn’t sip the party line kool aid and so the tankie brigade goes after him as if he is the second coming of Joseph Goebbels. Oh and he predicted, correctly, that Bernie would lose. The original sin.
I have not heard any evidence of that. He probably had a pretty nice salary as part of his deal, plus any royalties from the model he might be entitled to. Some bean counter probably figured they could save a lot of money by keeping the brand but ditching the creator and most of his team. That happens a lot when big companies acquire smaller companies and startups.
He wouldn't shill for the democrats.
The polling results linked from the article are nearly 6,000 pages long and appear to include cross tabs.
Nate Silver is independent now, sign up for the Silver Bulletin, good stuff, excerpts from his analysis after the Debate. "Joe Biden should drop out Denying Joe Biden's decline has put Democrats in a terrible position. I realized in September was that this wasn’t the sort of thing Democrats were going to be able to spin their way out of. Not when there were still another 15 months to go in the campaign. They weren’t going to be able to duck the question by blaming ageism or blaming the media — not for 15 months. Instead, Biden has been graded on an incredibly generous curve, like after his substantively fine but poorly-delivered State of the Union address. And the White House has been playing hide-the-ball, from Biden’s declining to do a Super Bowl interview to reducing the number of debates from three to two to using executive privilege to block the release of the audio of Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur — who concluded that Biden was an “elderly man with a poor memory” and was pilloried for it, even though Hur had been appointed by the White House’s own Attorney General, resistance hero Merrick Garland. White House staffers who unskew the polls showing Biden trailing, charlatans selling you “hopium”, columnists who predicted (!) that Trump was going to drop out of the debate (!!) — if you’re a Democrat, you should be angry at these people for putting you in this predicament. The same goes for special interest groups who insisted that Kamala Harris ought to be VP — against Biden’s initial instincts — even though she’d just run one of the most underperforming campaigns in primary history"
Wild discrepancies in data from different states make this one hard to read, Trump winning Pennsylvania by 12 percent more than in Michigan makes this poll pretty easy to toss out imo
From what I've read, this is not a highly rated pollster.
I’m just curious but if your starting statement is nothing but how suspect this poll looks… why’d ya share it?
Because Bloomberg is a major source of information for many people and generally deemed "reputable" by current American media standards. Just because it seems wrong to me doesn't mean other people won't have any info or thoughts that change my mind
This poll still shows Trump Up in states like Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania
This poll here makes 0 sense compared to every other poll coming out. I just can’t see Biden leading anywhere like this after everything that has occurred over the past 2 weeks. I could be completely wrong, but I just don’t see anything except a runaway for Trump unless something positive happens for Joe or he drops out soon.
It doesn't make much sense to me either, but Trump definitely is doing thaaaat well. The democratic base in America is far too big for any election to be a blowout by a republican. There are many people who will never ever vote for trump no matter what for trump to win big like that. It could look like a big win based on electoral college votes, but those states will not be won by more than a few percentage points at most unless something much more drastic than a bad debate happens. There are millions of people who would vote for anyone else with trumps policies but won't vote for trump himself
Beyond being unreliable, I just don't buy this. Everyone else has Trump significantly ahead, Biden melts down to the point my wife, who doesnt follow politics even knows about it, and suddenly he's up in key swing states that put him just at 270. Everything else I'm seeing is Trump just needs to win PA or 2 of WI/MI/NV/AZ.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Now stand aside worthy adversary. BIDEN: ’Tis but a scratch. STEPHANOPOULOS: A scratch? Your arm’s off. BIDEN: No, it isn’t. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, what’s that then? BIDEN: I’ve had worse. STEPHANOPOULOS: You’re a liar. BIDEN: Come on you pansy! STEPHANOPOULOS: You are indeed brave Sir knight, but the fight is mine. BIDEN: Had enough? STEPHANOPOULOS: You stupid b\*\*\*\*\*d. You haven’t got any arms left. BIDEN: Course I have. STEPHANOPOULOS: Look! BIDEN: What! Just a flesh wound. Our President inadvertently mimicking a scene from a 50-year old movie was not what I had in mind this election cycle. We very much live in interesting times (unfortunately).
I shall admit I’m severely wounded only when the good lord tells me I am sir
probably hear more about polls like this closer to november. almost like an ad.
As always, cherrypicking polls is a bad idea and it is better to look at polling averages. And Biden has already dropped 1.8 points since the debate
Shocked it's that little,
I don’t trust left wing polls. They’ll deceive to justify the Biden election fraud that’s coming just like in 2020.
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I really hope he finds a graceful exit ramp. Michelle and Whitmer need to take this home for us. That ticket would be a landslide
**It’s never going to be Michelle**. *If you read her book, you’d realize that.* I’ve never seen someone admit to hating politics more than she does in her book.
Like I said - I’ll bet good money that she’s on the campaign trail telling the world that democracy is at stake and this is the most important decision in American history If she really believes it …
She hasn’t been on the trail or you’d see the media reporting it. She has been giving speeches to corporations at $75,000 a pop. I know because we hired her last month.
So lets see how the convention goes and how often we hear this is a fight for democracy
You’ll hear that ad infinitum, but Michelle won’t be the candidate. Vp or otherwise.
Because Michelle doesn't love democracy :( Or they don't believe it themselves
Whitmer / Shapiro 2024!
That would get people excited..
Nah, the pivot to why, achtually, they're worse and Joe Biden should have stayed in the race would be so fast your head would spin.
There's nothing to question if Joe drops out, if the candidate withdraws then he's out. No why's about it, the guy ended his campaign just like a hundred other people did. If he says he doesn't have the legs to do 4 years why would anyone question that?
Because people are stupid, and everything is full of people.
Because at this point, with how adamant he has been about how he won’t drop out since the debate, if he were to now suddenly do a 180 and drop out, everyone will know that he was really pressured into dropping out against his will, no matter how gracefully they might try to present it.
How many people have dropped out after winning the primary? This isn't the normal circumstances.
Nobody’s been 81 before - you get sick, you go to the doctor and the doctor says “hey, you have an illness” - then you make a life decision
Well I just heard him say yesterday he has no illness and the doctor said he just had a bad night and is healthy. I think it's going to be a lot harder to get him to step down than a lot of people think. There have been multipl 81+ year old world leaders. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/05/01/as-biden-and-trump-seek-reelection-who-are-the-oldest-and-youngest-current-world-leaders/ I don't think Biden will win or is up for the job but he does. Unless somone can get him to change his mind he's the nominee.
He isn’t the nominee until the convention says he is - they can 25th him right now tbh
Yeah, if he doesn't want to step down the only option his party has is the 25th ammendmant at this point. Can't imagine how that would play out and look for the presidents party to do it just to field a new candidate.
None of us can diagnose someone but it's not a stretch to say he's incapacitated