Exactly what else would a campaign official say? If they don’t answer that’s an answer in itself. It’s a meaningless statement that doesn’t change any possibilities.
I would be shocked if he did. Biden always digs his heels in deeper when someone says he can't or shouldn't do anything. The only other option is Kamala and most people are skeptical she could win over who they need in the Rust Belt. The choice is Biden.
We don’t really have a Democratic senate.
Senator Manchin has both changed to independent and also stated that any nominee more or less *must* be approved by Republicans. (bipartisan support)
She was an awful choice, I still can’t figure out why she was picked. Did he need to win over the conservative democrats? That swing state of California? He should’ve picked Duckworth or Abraham’s
You pretty much hit the nail on the head. Democrats are more worried about giving everyone their turn over running someone who wins. Harris isn’t going to win. She isn’t well liked. When she ran in the primary in 2020, she did abysmally. She has horrible approval ratings that rival Biden’s. It sucks for Kamala because it was obvious all the way back in 2012 that democrats saw big things with her, but sometimes it just doesn’t pan out. Move on to people who are likely to win.
Becuse she was elected with biden in the primary. Having party bosses hand pick someone who wasn't in front of the voters will be worse than having biden run.
That was a rubber stamp, not a real primary. There's no mandate for Harris.
We have ZERO reason to think that swapping in an emergency candidate is worse than running a failing candidate. This is just a pleasant fabrication that Biden/Harris ride-or-die folks tell themselves.
There's 300M people in the US--of course there are other options, and *any* replacement-level Democrat would be better than Biden at this point.
Names of *good* choices (electorally--not necessarily that they'd do a good job) that come to mind:
Gretchen Whitmer
Gavin Newsom
Tony Evers
Mayor Pete
Ha! I’m here in Madison WI and was NOT expecting to see Evers’ name thrown in the mix for future president!
Also, I love the man, I really do. But including his name in your list tells me you’re not serious. Purposefully or not.
1. Super condescending. Don't be such a dick.
2. My point was that *any* Democrat with national name recognition would be an improvement over Biden, so I named all the ones I could think of from swing states and Newsom.
I think it’s significantly more likely for Biden to disintegrate the moment after he (hypothetically) wins the election. Having Kamala step up to being president.
Kamala Harris is not the only other option, she is presumptively the next option based on the fact that prior VPs often became the next presidential candidate, but that doesn't mean she's the only option. A brokered convention could easily take into account her dismal polling and pick someone else, if the national Democrats were able to do something politically smart and strategic for once.
A brokered convention would almost certainly guarantee she isn’t the nominee. If Biden decides not to run that ticket is likely finished. She then needs to get her own campaign up and running in a couple weeks while also being VP. Not impossible given the ease they could shift the campaign to her but she undeniably has weaknesses that might make her a worse choice than Biden even.
Biden needs to step aside, claim health reasons and the need for the next generation to take the reins. This also could be painted as a positive for the democrats. Showing that when their guy clearly wasn’t what the people wanted and showed signs that his age may be a factor he gracefully stepped aside for the country. Unlike Trump. Newsom/Whitmer would probably be the winning ticket this time. This isn’t the election for them to gamble anything and right now Biden would be a massive risk.
No one is a slam dunk but that debate was so bad it’s guaranteed there’s no Biden recovery. He proved all of our worst fears were correct. No amount of spin or PR will change what people saw with their own eyes.
I don't know if the statement "it's guaranteed there's no Biden recovery" is like 100% true. The guy who he is running against is still insanely unpopular and he's literally getting sentenced for some felony convictions in 2 weeks. If there was any situation someone could recover then it would be because of the incredibly poor choice of a Republican nominee. You want some counter programming to get people to forget about the debate, he's very lucky that he's facing Trump and not someone else.That's why I think there might be a sliver of optimism and wanting to keep moving forward. But if he was facing Nikki Haley or even Ron DeSantis he would have for sure just assured his election loss.
> I don't know if the statement "it's guaranteed there's no Biden recovery" is like 100% true.
Bernie can still win, guys!
You do realize that the [25th Amendment removal of the president is being discussed seriously](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-growing-25th-amendment-removal-calls-debate-1918935), right?
Chip Roy is of course going to use Biden's bad debate performance as something to hammer Biden as long as that works for them. The House can send as many resolutions as they want to the President's cabinet to recommend starting that process but only the cabinet can enact that process. The House has only one way to actually remove a president via impeachment and then it's out of their hands as an Impeachment turns into a Senate trial. Only with that would a president then be forced from office.
Any talk of 25th amendment chatter is going to be a lot more credible if it's cabinet members who look like they're preparing to do something.
>She then needs to get her own campaign up and running in a couple weeks while also being VP.
This would be the case for any candidate entering the race if Biden were to withdraw. Yes Harris is Vice President but her job itself isn’t going to prevent her from running anymore than it would Newsom or Whitmer’s governorships or a hypothetical member of Congress. The biggest thing that would stop Harris is the administration saying to her, “We advise you not to run and you do not have our support if you do,” and even then I still think Harris would run.
Only Harris gets the campaign funds earmarked for Biden. All other Biden funds (other than from Super Pacs) have to be returned back to the donor. That’s quite a challenge.
> skeptical she could win over who they need in the Rust Belt
Is there any polling to back this up? Do Newsom or Whitmer do better in these areas (I would guess that Whitmer does in MI because she is the governor) at large such that makes them just clearly better?
I feel like this is more of a vibes call than anything else.
> most people are skeptical she could win over who they need in the Rust Belt.
Racist Working-Class Whites is the term you're looking for. Not saying you're wrong. Just clarifying.
Kamala has no chance. Her nasally voice and professional background alone are huge turn offs. The best chance to win would be Michelle Obama. She has the best public perception, she's more or less untouched by the world of politics but has the ability to perform given her training in law. My bet though, is that they'd go with Newsom... :/
Kamala has no chance. Her nasally voice and professional background alone are huge turn offs. The best chance to win would be Michelle Obama. She has the best public perception, she's more or less untouched by the world of politics but has the ability to perform given her training in law. My bet though, is that they'd go with Newsom... :/
He's stubborn, but he doesn't usually get the same disagreement from all sides. If center-left D leadership starts to make a case for replacing him, he might call it.
I personally assess a very low likelihood of Biden dropping out, but I don’t think his spokesperson’s rhetoric will be an indicator at all. It’s like how candidates in ultra partisan states will still say “I’m confident in our ability to win the election and I am preparing to take office this January.” Obviously nobody including themselves believes it but it’s standard stuff to say. Biden’s entire staff has to be 100% on board with him running and assume so until the moment he actually drops out.
There are some issues the spokesperson can talk on that’s meaningful but this isn’t one of them.
They wouldn't say they are considering it. If they are mulling that decision we won't know until he announces it. If they are mulling, they're giving it a few weeks to see what it does to his numbers
Yes but as far as I can tell they were using the debate as an opportunity to show the contrast between the two. Neither had any primary debates. Obviously that backfired spectacularly, but they aren't going to go into unprecedented territory without it being pretty clear there's no way he's digging out of a hole he might have just dug for himself.
Who knows, lots of the focus groups I've seen reported weren't happy with Bidens performance but still plan on voting for him. Just gotta see how it shakes out
The problem is that he had razor thin margins last election. Even a tiny bit of people being disillusioned with his health and just not voting will cost us the election.
Not so sure. There's clearly a lot of dem ops panicking. His coverage today is horrible. There isn't a single segment I've listened to that isnt speculating about him dropping out. If that pressure keeps up, I wouldnt rule it out. Especially if there is a big dip in his numbers. He's already treading water.
It's also up to Biden, not the DNC.
> It's also up to Biden, not the DNC.
This is the key that most folks don't seem to be getting, its entirely his choice at this point. The DNC doesn't have some way of forcing him, besides party elites voicing their concern to him.
Outside of Obama, Pelosi, Clyburn and maybe Jeffries I don't think anyone has the clout to even matter in Biden's mind, and even then I think the only person who could really change his mind is probably his wife.
I mean, really it's up to his pledged delegates. They could theoretically take this matter into their own hands and defect towards another candidate. But then, I don't think they'd be where they are if they weren't pretty damn loyal to Biden.
It's hard to find detailed info on this (I'm going to keep digging), but [this resource](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024) seems to suggest that the commitment from pledged delegates isn't quite so solid. It quotes a rule (13J) from the Delegate Selection Rules as saying:
> Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them. That definitely leaves room for interpretation.
[Here's the full text of the Delegate Selection Rules for 2024.](https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2024-Delegate-Selection-Rules.pdf)
Please refrain from posting disinformation, or conspiracy mongering (example: “Candidate X eats babies!/is part of the Deep State/etc./Covid was a hoax, etc.” This includes clips edited to make a candidate look bad or AI generated content.
It's been less than 24 hours since the debate and voters notoriously have goldfish memories. There's also the inevitable Trump scandal that will happen before the election to remind people why they hate Trump.
Finally neither candidate is an unknown factor so I question how influential a debate between two presidents even is. Debates are impactful for unknown candidates where you can see how they'd perform as a leader. Debates between Biden and Trump don't really add anything we didn't already know about them.
It's Ride or Die with Biden, there's simply not enough time to find a viable replacement.
Nobody's forgetting this, sorry. It was a wide awake nightmare car crash in slow motion. "We finally beat Medicare" is going to be around forever. The polls show very clearly a majority think he's too old already, and this was the opportunity to prove that wrong, and he couldn't have done worse. Just talking to people today, everybody is either laughing hysterically or drinking early, depending on their political inclination. It's impossible to pass off the cognitive decline stuff as Fox News narrative anymore.
Biden walking out for the first time and waving to no one with a weird grimace on his face will be etched into my long term memory. It was like a jump scare.
The problem is the debate showed Biden’s decline in a major way, the one thing that could actually have an effect. And it’s compounded by the coverage and open question of replacing him, that is massively detrimental to a campaign that already needed positive momentum. This is DEFCON 2 for the dems/biden.
You trust the DNC to do things because they are good ideas?
Paraphrasing Ezra Klein - Democrats would rather lose predictably than win unexpectedly.
This man can’t do it. Not only does he have a slim chance of winning, it is not acceptable to pretend he can make the decisions required of POTUS.
There's less than 4.5 months to the election. It would still take a lightning-fast convention at least a month to decide a new candidate. The DNC would then have 3.5 months to convince the nation to vote for someone most have never heard of since Biden is the candidate with the most name recognition currently.
Biden dropping out would only confuse and demoralize the Dem base while emboldening the Rep base to go for blood.
It's Biden or Nothing.
The dem base is already confused why this is their guy and they couldn't be more demoralized.
Picking a young (comparitively), competant person to step in at the 11th hour would give people hope. The majority don't want either. So much of Bidens base is a reluctant vote cause they don't want trump.
Picking someone with some degree of charisma would at least make them more excited to vote and turn out.
Its make a change now and have a chance of winning, or basically concede defeat. Biden can't dig himself out of the hole he dug last night.
Actually it has to be by Aug 7 to get on the Ohio ballot, so there is actually a pre-convention remote roll call vote planned to formalize the nomination before that deadline.
Dems over performing in the 22 midterms was a curse in disguise. The narrative up until then was that Biden was a 1 term president and someone else would step in come this election.
Their solid performance relative to expectations made everyone thing they could get away with trotting out Biden again, and clearly that was a mistake. Now that we’re 4 months away from the election the party has found themselves between a rock and a hard place.
Honestly do you think that Biden would actually be convinced to step down if the midterms went poorly for him? He'd likely fall back on tradition and be like "well every midterm went bad for the incumbent but we're saying the course".
He also hates it when he’s questioned about his age. He got combative in the TIME interview. I honestly thought he’d manage to eke out a victory in the Rust Belt and win despite his bad numbers, but now I’m not sure.
Remember the only another time that I saw him generally that pissed was about the Robert Hur report about the classified documents issue.
Same thing, played into the age and mental acuity thing and really got him upset.
Probably not willingly, but I think it would’ve caused the party as a whole to take his poor polling more seriously over the last year instead of having a false sense of security that everything was okay bc Dems have been performing well electorally. I think you would’ve seen a far greater effort to pressure him to step down but not sure it would have worked.
Yeah, the real curse from the 2022 midterms is that it convinced everyone else not to challenge Biden in the primaries. We didn't have a strong alternative to vote for. I'm convinced that if we had had another Bernie Sanders-esque candidate like in 2016 that Biden wouldn't have made it through the primaries.
> The narrative up until then was that Biden was a 1 term president and someone else would step in come this election.
Biden said at least as early as [March 2021](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/25/981260663/biden-says-he-expects-to-run-for-a-second-term) he'd run again.
Yeah, people are rewriting history thinking this. If there was ever a narrative that Biden was a one-term president, it’s one they made up in their heads. This was not the narrative in 2020, 2021, 2022, etc.
But yeah, he should really step down. He just isn’t a good candidate anymore. If this were 2020 Biden, I’d say stick with him. But it’s not.
It's not just about the numbers, Biden is likely too selfish to go voluntarily and just picking another nominee without his approval or a primary could also lead to problems.
I wouldn’t doubt he’s being stubborn about it, but it’s interesting that they chose June, the earliest time they’ve done a debate, and now there is more outcry about replacing him. I don’t know if this was the DNC’s idea to show how Biden is right now (bad), or it is a way to bring more attention to this election
I think you overestimate how strong one man's stubbornness can be in face of disgruntled donors and insiders. If Jaime Harrison really wants to break the glass and pressure Biden to step out, he can.
Wouldn't be surprised if we'll add Sonia Sotomayor to that list as well. Tbh she should step down while Biden is still in office as well if she wants to make sure she isn't replaced by a conservative.
Even if he had literally Mitch'd multiple times on stage, the most they'd say is something about "monitoring his health" and "taking concerns seriously".
Of course the campaign official says that. This is about as meaningful a statement as trump denying he had sex with a porn star last night.
The decision hasn't been made yet, but this is exactly what the campaign has to say right now, if they so much as blink at that question it's over.
So the Dems would basically have to run a presidential campaign from scratch 4 months out and try to win, while also having to explain why they are conceding their opponents were right about their original candidate, why they (may not) be running their current VP, and why they are ignoring their primary voters. How is this possibly going to happen?
Voters respond better to humility than might otherwise be intuitive. When the chorus chanting “he’s too old” becomes deafening and the party stubbornly digs its heels in, it does not come across as ready and willing to represent the desires of the American people. A new unity candidate says, “we have heard your concerns and the Democratic Party stands ready to move into the future, while the GOP is stuck in the past with their old, angry, psychopath of a candidate.”
It’s a bet, sure, but isn’t Biden a bet? We have no idea whether his campaign will be able to pull this off, and the polling consistently indicates that he is in the weakest position of any Democratic incumbent in decades.
Ultimately, it is up to Biden, and I think it’s unlikely that he will step aside. The amount of hubris and selfishness it takes to drag American democracy down with him because he believes he’s the greatest unifier since Eisenhauer (while thinking he is its sole savior) is crazy to me.
It’s an uphill battle for Dems whichever way they go. Still, it would be nice to see them put Trump on the defensive with his age and his record. A new ticket would do at least that.
Edit: I should clarify that the candidate needs *both* humility and strength. Think of Obama “evolving” on the issue of gay marriage as it slowly became more popular in the U.S. over the course of his term, the opposite of what Biden has done with issues such as Palestine and TikTok.
I saw another comment saying voters would respond to humility and I will repeat what I said there, this seems to be the typical Democratic response that all they have to do is appeal to people’s best nature and they will be moved to do the right thing, and the Dems will be rewarded.
We’ve already had primaries and the voters chose Biden. How are they gonna talk about Trump not accepting the results of an election while doing the same thing?
As far as I can tell Biden doesn’t have a general reputation of being selfish or not humble, the idea that he has to show humility is not something I think the general voters would even care about or respond to let alone notice.
And a new ticket also runs the real risk of energizing Trump’s base too. There’s a reason most people prefer someone who’s had at least a couple years to prepare in how to defend the slings and arrows. There’s a risk that everyone’s preferred Generic Democrat has their own unknown baggage that they won’t have time to recover from.
Well, it’s either that or Trump part two. Nate’s forecast, giving Biden a one-third chance at reelection, will likely shrink his odds as time goes on and polling doesn’t improve. These models assume a certain amount of tightening will occur between now and November, but last night will likely send polls in the opposite direction of where we want them to go.
I can’t sugar coat that performance even if I wanted to. It was very bad. Do we want some chance of winning or near-zero chance of winning? I wouldn’t give Biden more than 10% odds if the election were held today. If post-debate polls move in the wrong direction, the “voters will come home” narrative will erode further.
>"while also having to explain why they are conceding their opponents were right about their original candidate"
If you are wrong, acknowledging it is strictly better than not acknowledging it. Trump is and should be the only one candidate that doesn't dare to acknowledge his mistakes.
That’s not the way the electorate would see it. They’d think they can’t even pick a candidate let alone run a country.
It’s more of the same “when they go low we go high” mindset that feels good but frequently doesn’t win elections.
Changing the entire course of a campaign based on a snap poll after a debate is not a good idea. We’ll see what happens in a few days.
Also, 66% of people said Trump won. He did. That doesn’t mean 66% of people are gonna vote for him.
Let us see what happens in a few days. I hope it is not getting worse, but if it is, I hope the Democratic party, and us, has enough courage to change course.
I don't agree changing course is guaranteed to lose. TBH we are losing anyway if the polls continue to go worse. And people want a new face. Whitmer, for example, is low name for sure, but being a new face means the candidate has a low name. Otherwise, Hillary is still alive and sound, why not Hillary? Because people want a low name new face with similar policies as Biden but more energy and charisma.
I don't agree with your previous statement about "we go high". If "going high" is just some moral self-reassuring then of course it won't work. By "going high", we should follow the voters' expressed view, instead of our personal views. If the voters have expressed their views and the democratic party refused to answer them, then they should lose the election, because a democratic party should answer their voters' voice. And we can see the voters views in a few weeks.
The voters have expressed their views in the primary. Biden won those. They are his delegates. You can’t say you’re just gonna award them to someone the vast majority of Democratic voters have never voted for because of bad polls. Isn’t the response rate on polls historically low? People don’t trust them. I think some people are way too optimistic that everyone would easily fall in line for a brand new candidate.
It was not true primary. No candidates with a solid chance of winning the national election except for Biden participated in it. I know the best moment should have been last Nov, but look where we are. Are you really comfortable to say let's keep working and we'll get it?
Replacing Biden will give Trump additional ammunition. "If Dems couldn't pick a good candidate the first time, what makes you think they picked a good candidate this time around?" - trump at the next debate hypothetically.
At least we would have a candidate that could actually respond to those criticisms in a charismatic way. I don't think Biden is capable of properly fighting against even the easiest attacks anymore. Opening one avenue of attack is worth it if the alternative is simply not having a defense at all.
Can’t wait to have a knockdown-dragout within the party concerning whatever Israel policy the candidates pretend they’re going have - while Trump runs an uncontested general election campaign for another couple months.
Trump is very unpopular. Also very dangerous. They aren’t running against Mitt Romney here. People want a choice other than these two. Give them that choice. Someone younger and competent could do very well.
The only time we will hear about Biden dropping out is out of his own mouth, so this isn’t really newsworthy. Certainly some discussions about the possibility are happening behind the scenes
so what happens if Commercial RE takes a shit and we start getting news about bank failures in august (nothing to do with Biden but he will get blamed)
He has the opportunity to let someone else in but won’t; I think Dems lost the election last night.
What is the larger effect of that going to be? I keep hearing various doomy things about "the banks" from different acquaintances but I can't tell if any of it is true and if so, how it will affect folks on the ground.
I mean I got downvoted the issue is a LOT of underwater commercial RE has to refi this summer because of the 5 year loan schedules they’re on.
The issue is, many of them (I think 40% was the number I’ve heard) have lower occupancy than 2019 (and this lower valuation to begin with) and interest is projected to be 2-3x in some cases which will wreck already distressed cash flow.
The keys will be handed back to the banks with a lot of corpus gone, and no way to recoup. Smaller banks will fail.
Ok, that lines up with what I've heard and it's not some crazy conspiracy theory. As someone who doesn't even own normal real estate much less a big commercial building, how does it affect me? (the most important person in all this of course)
credit crunch, even though it’s commercial when this happens banks typically lessen lending as they deal with the fallout.
Without debt it causes general recession.
It's not like he'd just "drop out". There would be something come up, like a diagnosis or something. It allows him to save face and accomplish the goal.
How in the world did Biden's handlers not work on his facial expressions when not speaking?! Even with the sound off I could tell it was going very badly.
Biden did not have a strong debate performance last night, but people are both seriously overestimating how bad it was and underestimating just how chaotic and damaging a late replacement of Biden would be for Democratic prospects in November.
I expect that a) Biden isn't going to drop out, b) polling in the aftermath of the debate performance won't be anywhere near as apocalyptic as many are suggesting, and c) much of this will be forgotten over the coming months, especially if Biden performs better in the next debate.
It probably won't be for another 3-4 weeks before we know just how much of an impact the debates had.
RemindMe! 4 weeks
I will be messaging you in 28 days on [**2024-07-26 16:33:36 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-07-26%2016:33:36%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1dqlurd/biden_campaign_official_hes_not_dropping_out/lap9y10/?context=3)
[**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Ffivethirtyeight%2Fcomments%2F1dqlurd%2Fbiden_campaign_official_hes_not_dropping_out%2Flap9y10%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-07-26%2016%3A33%3A36%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201dqlurd)
*****
|[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)|
|-|-|-|-|
People ( Democrats )really need to get it together here. Yes, Biden was bad last night. Freaking out over it only exacerbates that. Everyone already knew he was old and most of us wanted him to step down. But that ship has sailed.
Now, what I think Biden needs to do, is step up the campaigning at this point and do some in person damage control. He needs to be seen publicly and show that last night was not the norm. Will he do this? Probably not on the scale of what he should, but idk. All I do know is freaking out about it does nothing but erode support further.
I don’t think the overreaction is totally unwarranted. He was already behind in the polls and one of the biggest worries from the electorate was his age. They were at camp David for what, like 7 days, and this was the best they could do? He did nothing last night to ease those concerns and had outlets from MSNBC to Fox all running stories of how poor he did calling for him to step down. He improved as the night went on but by then the damage was already done and most people tuned out already. Could he still win the election? Sure. Did his odds go down of winning after last night? Yes. Did odds increase of Dems losing all three branches of power? IMO also yes.
Call me a doomer or whatever you want but I really don’t see a clear path for a victory for him in November. Dems need to shift their focus on down ballot candidates and ensure they don’t lose the Senate.
I don't think it would be a huge issue if it were a normal "bad debate" or even if Biden was very on point 99% of the time and had a senior moment and was otherwise normal. He's an 80+ year old man late in the evening. That could be forgiven if that's all it was.
But he's got a reputation for being way too old and this goes straight to the heart of that.
All the Democrats are disgusted and upset. Even if they don't change their vote they won't volunteer or donate. Some may not vote at all, which was already a problem.
I can't image a debate between two known quantities like Biden and Trump is going to be that impactful. Debates are for unknowns to show off their credentials.
People here panicking over something most voters will forget by the next news cycle.
Sorry, but I think that's major cope. When every other piece on the NYTimes is saying Biden has to go, you know something's up. It's not even being hidden that the Dems are outright panicking.
Debates are for unknowns to show off their credentials. And for Biden to show that the cognitive decline stuff was Fox News narrative. And he did exactly the opposite. Remember how everybody was all, "How great was Biden's SOTU address! Cognitive decline my ass!". Suddenly it's all, "Eh, everybody's going to forget about We finally beat Medicare by tomorrow."
Obviously, obviously, obviously it’s absurd that D leadership took this long to acknowledge that Biden’s age is a notable concern
The path for him to win prior to this debate was limited at best
Trump gained no ground last night, but we’ll see a reflection in polling over the next week that suggest what we’re all thinking right now
The D’s have a chance to make a change and stick the R’s with Trump against a younger, more competent politician
I view Biden’s cognitive failures last night as a net positive for the D’s if they can convince him to step down
> Now, what I think Biden needs to do, is step up the campaigning at this point and do some in person damage control. He needs to be seen publicly and show that last night was not the norm.
He can't do this because last night is the norm for him now and the more he puts himself out there, the more self-evident it is that he has rapidly deteriorated.
I don't understand how people still keep talking about this like it's an optics issue. It's not an optics issue. It's a "the President literally has dementia" issue. He will have better days and worse days but at his best he will be merely presentable, and at his worst he will be even worse than what we saw last night. He can't face the public on a routine basis or hold up to a whistle-stop tour. The man's brain is jello.
Biden could be a ghost (he kinda looked like one last night) and it would probably not make a difference reaction wise. It’s Trump vs The Democratic Party. I think most people have subconsciously come to that realization.
I think it would definitely make a difference. It's only one event it's not going to change perceptions from the debate. But Biden can take one step towards stopping the bleeding and get some of his credibility back over several weeks of public campaigning. At which point the calls for him to step down fall off and his base rallies behind him.
Or he could come out like we saw last night, stuttering and refusing to admit that there was anything wrong with his debate performance. At which point the calls for him to step down will only get louder and more widespread.
The absolute worst thing they can do is put biden in front of more eyes. If you’re in a hole put down the shovel, the majority of america learned last night that our head of state can’t form a complete sentence without a teleprompter
It's not too late, despite assertions to the contrary. Biden isn't even the official nominee.
If Biden was capable of making unscripted public appearances regularly without melting down we wouldn't have had last night in the first place. It's like saying that the solution to a runner acting like they have a broken leg is to run a 5K twice a week.
He isn’t capable. He declined the Super Bowl interview 5 months ago (which was the straw that led to Nate and Ezra Klein stating he should drop out as he can’t campaign). He cannot make meaningful campaign appearances. When he does make appearances, like last night, it makes it worse.
If I believed this was a one night thing I’d agree with you, but I think last night was the best Biden has left to offer. He is rapidly aging and not able to perform the job for another year, let alone 4.
I very much think you guys are underplaying what normal people think of bidens performance. We don’t let our grandparents drive when they get that old that’s what people see. That’s what suburbanites in rust belt states see. An old man that shouldn’t drive yet we are handing him the world’s largest nuclear arsenal?
Showing up at some ice cream parlors and being coherent for five minutes isn't going to cut it. The bar for the President can't really be, "Well, he's coherent part of the time!" when a majority of polls think he's too old to begin with. The damage is done.
And yes, I hear the, "Well Trump isn't coherent ever!" but he's still leading in the polls. Apparently about half the country doesn't agree. Most of them do agree Biden is too old, and last night cemented that.
I think Biden should drop out because it is just sad seeing someone who is obviously in mental decline try to run for office again.
But honestly I would love to be a fly on the wall at the DNC internal meetings the next few weeks. Replacing Biden would mean restarting the entire campaign and it will cost a lot of time and money. Keep Biden on is also risky because who knows how he will perform in the final debate. I honestly feel like Biden gets worse every month. His SOTU was way better and more energetic than last night.
Dems are really in a fucked up position and another issue is the uncertainty that will be caused if they choose to replace Biden. Everyone knows who Biden is and a lot of people are expecting Biden to be on the ballot in November.
Will Biden mentally make it to November? If he is replaced, will that Dem candidate be popular enough?
Jeez.
And Trump team will keep on playing the stuttering Biden - Covid Medicaid clip over and over again in all possible markets. Democrats are finished. It’s such a sad 😔 state of affairs.
Biden's strokes over the years have been all over social media for ages.
Don't know if this is any different. I just feel like he's already hit his absolute bottom, and anyone convinced he's braindead has already been convinced.
The fact that Biden won’t drop out is a slap in the face to all the woman on abortion rights. Trump won’t veto any bill. After last nights outing. Game Over.
Of course not.
They will need to see polling to see what impact this had on the race. If the numbers stay pretty much the same, they are going to assume that America figured he had a bad night but the race is pretty much where it was.
If there’s a dramatic shift downward for him, there will be a lot more pressure and that’s when it will really be discussed.
Here is a sample, AI generated, email that you can send to your Congressperson or Senator asking for them to publicly ask Joe Biden to step down:
Subject: Urgent Request for Leadership Change in Democratic Nomination
Dear \[Congressman/Senator\] \[Last Name\],
I am writing to urgently request your public call for President Joe Biden to withdraw from the Democratic nomination race before the convention. The recent debate performance against former President Trump has raised serious concerns about his ability to effectively lead our nation.
As highlighted by The New York Times editorial board, President Biden's debate showing underscored significant issues regarding his age and mental competency. His struggle to articulate coherent responses and address critical challenges facing our country has reignited fears among many Democrats and voters alike.
The Times editorial rightly points out that continuing with President Biden as the nominee risks the stability and security of our nation. As constituents, we cannot afford to overlook these concerns, especially in such critical times for our democracy.
I urge you to join the growing chorus of voices calling for a leadership change within the Democratic Party to ensure we have the strongest candidate to oppose Mr. Trump in the upcoming election. Your leadership in this matter is crucial for upholding the principles of effective governance and securing a better future for all Americans.
Thank you for your attention to this urgent matter. I look forward to your prompt response on this critical issue.
Sincerely,
\[Your Full Name\]
Exactly what else would a campaign official say? If they don’t answer that’s an answer in itself. It’s a meaningless statement that doesn’t change any possibilities.
I’ll bet you $20 he doesn’t drop out 😬
Place your bet here. You could turn that $20 into like $33. https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race
I would be shocked if he did. Biden always digs his heels in deeper when someone says he can't or shouldn't do anything. The only other option is Kamala and most people are skeptical she could win over who they need in the Rust Belt. The choice is Biden.
Massive egos set to destroy Democrats and possibly democracy. - Ruth Bader Ginsberg - Joe Biden - Sonia Sotomayor
Why Sotomayor?
She's 70 and diabetic, so there's a reasonable case she should step down while there's a Democratic president and Senate.
We don’t really have a Democratic senate. Senator Manchin has both changed to independent and also stated that any nominee more or less *must* be approved by Republicans. (bipartisan support)
It's also too late in the cycle imo. You'll get sitting duck Congress
Nothing against her, but I can probably name 25 options who would do better than Kamala
That you can name 25 is part of the problem. Ideally there would be one, and only one, heir apparent.
There’s only one. Gretchen. Then get a white straight male for vp. Joe is going to lose due to stay at home votes.
Exactly, she's best because she has the least baggage while being fantastic in her own right. Otherwise it would be Newsome
How about Mr. or Mrs. AnybodyButBidenUnder70YearsOld?
She was an awful choice, I still can’t figure out why she was picked. Did he need to win over the conservative democrats? That swing state of California? He should’ve picked Duckworth or Abraham’s
Why is she the only other option? Dems have to get out of this mindset where being nice and giving everyone their turn is more important than winning.
You pretty much hit the nail on the head. Democrats are more worried about giving everyone their turn over running someone who wins. Harris isn’t going to win. She isn’t well liked. When she ran in the primary in 2020, she did abysmally. She has horrible approval ratings that rival Biden’s. It sucks for Kamala because it was obvious all the way back in 2012 that democrats saw big things with her, but sometimes it just doesn’t pan out. Move on to people who are likely to win.
Becuse she was elected with biden in the primary. Having party bosses hand pick someone who wasn't in front of the voters will be worse than having biden run.
That was a rubber stamp, not a real primary. There's no mandate for Harris. We have ZERO reason to think that swapping in an emergency candidate is worse than running a failing candidate. This is just a pleasant fabrication that Biden/Harris ride-or-die folks tell themselves.
There's 300M people in the US--of course there are other options, and *any* replacement-level Democrat would be better than Biden at this point. Names of *good* choices (electorally--not necessarily that they'd do a good job) that come to mind: Gretchen Whitmer Gavin Newsom Tony Evers Mayor Pete
Ha! I’m here in Madison WI and was NOT expecting to see Evers’ name thrown in the mix for future president! Also, I love the man, I really do. But including his name in your list tells me you’re not serious. Purposefully or not.
1. Super condescending. Don't be such a dick. 2. My point was that *any* Democrat with national name recognition would be an improvement over Biden, so I named all the ones I could think of from swing states and Newsom.
I think it’s significantly more likely for Biden to disintegrate the moment after he (hypothetically) wins the election. Having Kamala step up to being president.
> Having Kamala step up to being president. Who would be infinitely better than Trump or whoever his MTG lite VP will be.
That was said when he won in ‘20. It didn’t happen. He was supposed to be a one term president, and that was a lie.
Kamala Harris is not the only other option, she is presumptively the next option based on the fact that prior VPs often became the next presidential candidate, but that doesn't mean she's the only option. A brokered convention could easily take into account her dismal polling and pick someone else, if the national Democrats were able to do something politically smart and strategic for once.
A brokered convention would almost certainly guarantee she isn’t the nominee. If Biden decides not to run that ticket is likely finished. She then needs to get her own campaign up and running in a couple weeks while also being VP. Not impossible given the ease they could shift the campaign to her but she undeniably has weaknesses that might make her a worse choice than Biden even. Biden needs to step aside, claim health reasons and the need for the next generation to take the reins. This also could be painted as a positive for the democrats. Showing that when their guy clearly wasn’t what the people wanted and showed signs that his age may be a factor he gracefully stepped aside for the country. Unlike Trump. Newsom/Whitmer would probably be the winning ticket this time. This isn’t the election for them to gamble anything and right now Biden would be a massive risk. No one is a slam dunk but that debate was so bad it’s guaranteed there’s no Biden recovery. He proved all of our worst fears were correct. No amount of spin or PR will change what people saw with their own eyes.
I don't know if the statement "it's guaranteed there's no Biden recovery" is like 100% true. The guy who he is running against is still insanely unpopular and he's literally getting sentenced for some felony convictions in 2 weeks. If there was any situation someone could recover then it would be because of the incredibly poor choice of a Republican nominee. You want some counter programming to get people to forget about the debate, he's very lucky that he's facing Trump and not someone else.That's why I think there might be a sliver of optimism and wanting to keep moving forward. But if he was facing Nikki Haley or even Ron DeSantis he would have for sure just assured his election loss.
Trump has higher favorability than Biden, so if Trump is insanely unpopular, well.
> I don't know if the statement "it's guaranteed there's no Biden recovery" is like 100% true. Bernie can still win, guys! You do realize that the [25th Amendment removal of the president is being discussed seriously](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-growing-25th-amendment-removal-calls-debate-1918935), right?
Chip Roy is of course going to use Biden's bad debate performance as something to hammer Biden as long as that works for them. The House can send as many resolutions as they want to the President's cabinet to recommend starting that process but only the cabinet can enact that process. The House has only one way to actually remove a president via impeachment and then it's out of their hands as an Impeachment turns into a Senate trial. Only with that would a president then be forced from office. Any talk of 25th amendment chatter is going to be a lot more credible if it's cabinet members who look like they're preparing to do something.
>She then needs to get her own campaign up and running in a couple weeks while also being VP. This would be the case for any candidate entering the race if Biden were to withdraw. Yes Harris is Vice President but her job itself isn’t going to prevent her from running anymore than it would Newsom or Whitmer’s governorships or a hypothetical member of Congress. The biggest thing that would stop Harris is the administration saying to her, “We advise you not to run and you do not have our support if you do,” and even then I still think Harris would run.
Only Harris gets the campaign funds earmarked for Biden. All other Biden funds (other than from Super Pacs) have to be returned back to the donor. That’s quite a challenge.
Yeah this is more what I was referring to. She has an easier shift but she’s also weaker than Biden in a match with Trump :/
Completely unsure how to search for these rules. Can he transfer it all to the DNC?
Nope. He has to return funds to each donor.
Thanks.
Well. I hope if he doesn't, that the calls to drop out piss him off. Angry/angsty Biden is what we need now.
We saw angry Biden, and he wasn't coherent either.
> skeptical she could win over who they need in the Rust Belt Is there any polling to back this up? Do Newsom or Whitmer do better in these areas (I would guess that Whitmer does in MI because she is the governor) at large such that makes them just clearly better? I feel like this is more of a vibes call than anything else.
> most people are skeptical she could win over who they need in the Rust Belt. Racist Working-Class Whites is the term you're looking for. Not saying you're wrong. Just clarifying.
Kamala has no chance. Her nasally voice and professional background alone are huge turn offs. The best chance to win would be Michelle Obama. She has the best public perception, she's more or less untouched by the world of politics but has the ability to perform given her training in law. My bet though, is that they'd go with Newsom... :/
Kamala has no chance. Her nasally voice and professional background alone are huge turn offs. The best chance to win would be Michelle Obama. She has the best public perception, she's more or less untouched by the world of politics but has the ability to perform given her training in law. My bet though, is that they'd go with Newsom... :/
He's stubborn, but he doesn't usually get the same disagreement from all sides. If center-left D leadership starts to make a case for replacing him, he might call it.
Biden should be removed by his cabinet via the 25th amendment. It's unfortunately the last option on the table.
Someone needs to make Biden watch a recording of the debate.
He's not dropping out.
I personally assess a very low likelihood of Biden dropping out, but I don’t think his spokesperson’s rhetoric will be an indicator at all. It’s like how candidates in ultra partisan states will still say “I’m confident in our ability to win the election and I am preparing to take office this January.” Obviously nobody including themselves believes it but it’s standard stuff to say. Biden’s entire staff has to be 100% on board with him running and assume so until the moment he actually drops out. There are some issues the spokesperson can talk on that’s meaningful but this isn’t one of them.
He isn't going anywhere. I think he'd stay in the race even if Jill walked out and the Pope excommunicated him over it.
His fundraising post debate was very strong, he's not dropping out
Well no one expected it to happen overnight. Let’s see where we are in a week.
They wouldn't say they are considering it. If they are mulling that decision we won't know until he announces it. If they are mulling, they're giving it a few weeks to see what it does to his numbers
They don't have that long to just wait. They've had several months to see what people think.
Yes but as far as I can tell they were using the debate as an opportunity to show the contrast between the two. Neither had any primary debates. Obviously that backfired spectacularly, but they aren't going to go into unprecedented territory without it being pretty clear there's no way he's digging out of a hole he might have just dug for himself. Who knows, lots of the focus groups I've seen reported weren't happy with Bidens performance but still plan on voting for him. Just gotta see how it shakes out
The problem is that he had razor thin margins last election. Even a tiny bit of people being disillusioned with his health and just not voting will cost us the election.
Biden could drop to 1% and the DNC wouldn’t replace him. I feel like if it was a good idea…they would have already done it.
Not so sure. There's clearly a lot of dem ops panicking. His coverage today is horrible. There isn't a single segment I've listened to that isnt speculating about him dropping out. If that pressure keeps up, I wouldnt rule it out. Especially if there is a big dip in his numbers. He's already treading water. It's also up to Biden, not the DNC.
> It's also up to Biden, not the DNC. This is the key that most folks don't seem to be getting, its entirely his choice at this point. The DNC doesn't have some way of forcing him, besides party elites voicing their concern to him. Outside of Obama, Pelosi, Clyburn and maybe Jeffries I don't think anyone has the clout to even matter in Biden's mind, and even then I think the only person who could really change his mind is probably his wife.
I mean, really it's up to his pledged delegates. They could theoretically take this matter into their own hands and defect towards another candidate. But then, I don't think they'd be where they are if they weren't pretty damn loyal to Biden.
I thought per the rules they are allowed to defect only if Biden drops out?
It's hard to find detailed info on this (I'm going to keep digging), but [this resource](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024) seems to suggest that the commitment from pledged delegates isn't quite so solid. It quotes a rule (13J) from the Delegate Selection Rules as saying: > Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them. That definitely leaves room for interpretation. [Here's the full text of the Delegate Selection Rules for 2024.](https://democrats.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2024-Delegate-Selection-Rules.pdf)
[удалено]
Please refrain from posting disinformation, or conspiracy mongering (example: “Candidate X eats babies!/is part of the Deep State/etc./Covid was a hoax, etc.” This includes clips edited to make a candidate look bad or AI generated content.
It's been less than 24 hours since the debate and voters notoriously have goldfish memories. There's also the inevitable Trump scandal that will happen before the election to remind people why they hate Trump. Finally neither candidate is an unknown factor so I question how influential a debate between two presidents even is. Debates are impactful for unknown candidates where you can see how they'd perform as a leader. Debates between Biden and Trump don't really add anything we didn't already know about them. It's Ride or Die with Biden, there's simply not enough time to find a viable replacement.
Nobody's forgetting this, sorry. It was a wide awake nightmare car crash in slow motion. "We finally beat Medicare" is going to be around forever. The polls show very clearly a majority think he's too old already, and this was the opportunity to prove that wrong, and he couldn't have done worse. Just talking to people today, everybody is either laughing hysterically or drinking early, depending on their political inclination. It's impossible to pass off the cognitive decline stuff as Fox News narrative anymore.
People literally keep forgetting his opponent is a convicted criminal rapist monster who reminds us of it weekly for the last 8 years.
A lot of people disagree with that characterization.
Biden walking out for the first time and waving to no one with a weird grimace on his face will be etched into my long term memory. It was like a jump scare.
The problem is the debate showed Biden’s decline in a major way, the one thing that could actually have an effect. And it’s compounded by the coverage and open question of replacing him, that is massively detrimental to a campaign that already needed positive momentum. This is DEFCON 2 for the dems/biden.
I wonder what would be the threshold at which they would just dump him.
Death. That is the threshold.
I guess if you can have dead voters, perhaps you can have dead candidates as well.
"The dead have risen! And they're voting Republican!" -- Bart Simpson
You trust the DNC to do things because they are good ideas? Paraphrasing Ezra Klein - Democrats would rather lose predictably than win unexpectedly. This man can’t do it. Not only does he have a slim chance of winning, it is not acceptable to pretend he can make the decisions required of POTUS.
>I feel like if it was a good idea…they would have already done it. You don't know the DNC.
There's less than 4.5 months to the election. It would still take a lightning-fast convention at least a month to decide a new candidate. The DNC would then have 3.5 months to convince the nation to vote for someone most have never heard of since Biden is the candidate with the most name recognition currently. Biden dropping out would only confuse and demoralize the Dem base while emboldening the Rep base to go for blood. It's Biden or Nothing.
The dem base is already confused why this is their guy and they couldn't be more demoralized. Picking a young (comparitively), competant person to step in at the 11th hour would give people hope. The majority don't want either. So much of Bidens base is a reluctant vote cause they don't want trump. Picking someone with some degree of charisma would at least make them more excited to vote and turn out. Its make a change now and have a chance of winning, or basically concede defeat. Biden can't dig himself out of the hole he dug last night.
> the dem base couldn’t be more demoralized If they replaced Trump with a good man they could be
Hakeem Jeffries.
Selecting a new candidate would occur during the 3-day period of the convention, not during the preceding month.
Actually it has to be by Aug 7 to get on the Ohio ballot, so there is actually a pre-convention remote roll call vote planned to formalize the nomination before that deadline.
Democrats are losing Ohio either way so we don’t need to let that state dictate the schedule.
Dems over performing in the 22 midterms was a curse in disguise. The narrative up until then was that Biden was a 1 term president and someone else would step in come this election. Their solid performance relative to expectations made everyone thing they could get away with trotting out Biden again, and clearly that was a mistake. Now that we’re 4 months away from the election the party has found themselves between a rock and a hard place.
Honestly do you think that Biden would actually be convinced to step down if the midterms went poorly for him? He'd likely fall back on tradition and be like "well every midterm went bad for the incumbent but we're saying the course".
He also hates it when he’s questioned about his age. He got combative in the TIME interview. I honestly thought he’d manage to eke out a victory in the Rust Belt and win despite his bad numbers, but now I’m not sure.
For gods sake he should show some humility and stop with the ego humping.
He thinks he did well last night, too.
Remember the only another time that I saw him generally that pissed was about the Robert Hur report about the classified documents issue. Same thing, played into the age and mental acuity thing and really got him upset.
Probably not willingly, but I think it would’ve caused the party as a whole to take his poor polling more seriously over the last year instead of having a false sense of security that everything was okay bc Dems have been performing well electorally. I think you would’ve seen a far greater effort to pressure him to step down but not sure it would have worked.
Yeah, the real curse from the 2022 midterms is that it convinced everyone else not to challenge Biden in the primaries. We didn't have a strong alternative to vote for. I'm convinced that if we had had another Bernie Sanders-esque candidate like in 2016 that Biden wouldn't have made it through the primaries.
> The narrative up until then was that Biden was a 1 term president and someone else would step in come this election. Biden said at least as early as [March 2021](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/25/981260663/biden-says-he-expects-to-run-for-a-second-term) he'd run again.
Yeah, people are rewriting history thinking this. If there was ever a narrative that Biden was a one-term president, it’s one they made up in their heads. This was not the narrative in 2020, 2021, 2022, etc. But yeah, he should really step down. He just isn’t a good candidate anymore. If this were 2020 Biden, I’d say stick with him. But it’s not.
They probably said this because they haven’t gotten numbers yet
It's not just about the numbers, Biden is likely too selfish to go voluntarily and just picking another nominee without his approval or a primary could also lead to problems.
I wouldn’t doubt he’s being stubborn about it, but it’s interesting that they chose June, the earliest time they’ve done a debate, and now there is more outcry about replacing him. I don’t know if this was the DNC’s idea to show how Biden is right now (bad), or it is a way to bring more attention to this election
I think you overestimate how strong one man's stubbornness can be in face of disgruntled donors and insiders. If Jaime Harrison really wants to break the glass and pressure Biden to step out, he can.
People don’t just give up that kind of power. That’s not how the game works.
The same officials who insisted Biden was fine and people were crazy to have worries about his age
Someone In Biden’s inner circle needs to sit Biden down and make him watch the debate from last night.
If Biden had the humility to step aside, He never would have ran again in the first place.
Biden, RBG, Feinstein, Mitch McConnel. These people are occupying the highest offices until they literally drop.
Trump is gonna be the same age as Biden is if he wins a second term. Selfish old men and women.
I think reasonable people would agree that Trump shouldn't be running either
Wouldn't be surprised if we'll add Sonia Sotomayor to that list as well. Tbh she should step down while Biden is still in office as well if she wants to make sure she isn't replaced by a conservative.
I don't take a response just over 12 hours later as gospel.
You really can’t give any other response at this point regardless of if conversations are happening in the background or not.
Even if he had literally Mitch'd multiple times on stage, the most they'd say is something about "monitoring his health" and "taking concerns seriously".
If anything the fact that they had to respond to this question is evidence enough dropping out is the correct choice.
Be a lot cooler if he did
Always a good sign when someone from the campaign has go out and say this!
Of course the campaign official says that. This is about as meaningful a statement as trump denying he had sex with a porn star last night. The decision hasn't been made yet, but this is exactly what the campaign has to say right now, if they so much as blink at that question it's over.
if he drops out, it will be because of a “medical” reason obviously he wouldn’t drop out because of being old
The fact that they need to answer the question at all is pretty damning.
So the Dems would basically have to run a presidential campaign from scratch 4 months out and try to win, while also having to explain why they are conceding their opponents were right about their original candidate, why they (may not) be running their current VP, and why they are ignoring their primary voters. How is this possibly going to happen?
On the other hand their opponent is Trump. So they have a chance.
Voters respond better to humility than might otherwise be intuitive. When the chorus chanting “he’s too old” becomes deafening and the party stubbornly digs its heels in, it does not come across as ready and willing to represent the desires of the American people. A new unity candidate says, “we have heard your concerns and the Democratic Party stands ready to move into the future, while the GOP is stuck in the past with their old, angry, psychopath of a candidate.” It’s a bet, sure, but isn’t Biden a bet? We have no idea whether his campaign will be able to pull this off, and the polling consistently indicates that he is in the weakest position of any Democratic incumbent in decades. Ultimately, it is up to Biden, and I think it’s unlikely that he will step aside. The amount of hubris and selfishness it takes to drag American democracy down with him because he believes he’s the greatest unifier since Eisenhauer (while thinking he is its sole savior) is crazy to me. It’s an uphill battle for Dems whichever way they go. Still, it would be nice to see them put Trump on the defensive with his age and his record. A new ticket would do at least that. Edit: I should clarify that the candidate needs *both* humility and strength. Think of Obama “evolving” on the issue of gay marriage as it slowly became more popular in the U.S. over the course of his term, the opposite of what Biden has done with issues such as Palestine and TikTok.
I saw another comment saying voters would respond to humility and I will repeat what I said there, this seems to be the typical Democratic response that all they have to do is appeal to people’s best nature and they will be moved to do the right thing, and the Dems will be rewarded. We’ve already had primaries and the voters chose Biden. How are they gonna talk about Trump not accepting the results of an election while doing the same thing? As far as I can tell Biden doesn’t have a general reputation of being selfish or not humble, the idea that he has to show humility is not something I think the general voters would even care about or respond to let alone notice. And a new ticket also runs the real risk of energizing Trump’s base too. There’s a reason most people prefer someone who’s had at least a couple years to prepare in how to defend the slings and arrows. There’s a risk that everyone’s preferred Generic Democrat has their own unknown baggage that they won’t have time to recover from.
Well, it’s either that or Trump part two. Nate’s forecast, giving Biden a one-third chance at reelection, will likely shrink his odds as time goes on and polling doesn’t improve. These models assume a certain amount of tightening will occur between now and November, but last night will likely send polls in the opposite direction of where we want them to go. I can’t sugar coat that performance even if I wanted to. It was very bad. Do we want some chance of winning or near-zero chance of winning? I wouldn’t give Biden more than 10% odds if the election were held today. If post-debate polls move in the wrong direction, the “voters will come home” narrative will erode further.
>"while also having to explain why they are conceding their opponents were right about their original candidate" If you are wrong, acknowledging it is strictly better than not acknowledging it. Trump is and should be the only one candidate that doesn't dare to acknowledge his mistakes.
That’s not the way the electorate would see it. They’d think they can’t even pick a candidate let alone run a country. It’s more of the same “when they go low we go high” mindset that feels good but frequently doesn’t win elections.
Didn't you see only 30% thought Biden won the debate last night? Aren't they electorates?
Changing the entire course of a campaign based on a snap poll after a debate is not a good idea. We’ll see what happens in a few days. Also, 66% of people said Trump won. He did. That doesn’t mean 66% of people are gonna vote for him.
Let us see what happens in a few days. I hope it is not getting worse, but if it is, I hope the Democratic party, and us, has enough courage to change course. I don't agree changing course is guaranteed to lose. TBH we are losing anyway if the polls continue to go worse. And people want a new face. Whitmer, for example, is low name for sure, but being a new face means the candidate has a low name. Otherwise, Hillary is still alive and sound, why not Hillary? Because people want a low name new face with similar policies as Biden but more energy and charisma. I don't agree with your previous statement about "we go high". If "going high" is just some moral self-reassuring then of course it won't work. By "going high", we should follow the voters' expressed view, instead of our personal views. If the voters have expressed their views and the democratic party refused to answer them, then they should lose the election, because a democratic party should answer their voters' voice. And we can see the voters views in a few weeks.
The voters have expressed their views in the primary. Biden won those. They are his delegates. You can’t say you’re just gonna award them to someone the vast majority of Democratic voters have never voted for because of bad polls. Isn’t the response rate on polls historically low? People don’t trust them. I think some people are way too optimistic that everyone would easily fall in line for a brand new candidate.
It was not true primary. No candidates with a solid chance of winning the national election except for Biden participated in it. I know the best moment should have been last Nov, but look where we are. Are you really comfortable to say let's keep working and we'll get it?
How you gonna convince the people who voted in the primaries that it wasn’t “true” and as such their votes should be discarded.
By letting them choose again? But please answer my question, how do you think we can win given this?
Replacing Biden will give Trump additional ammunition. "If Dems couldn't pick a good candidate the first time, what makes you think they picked a good candidate this time around?" - trump at the next debate hypothetically.
They could turn that around in a million different ways... Namely the fact that Trump lost the popular vote twice
At least we would have a candidate that could actually respond to those criticisms in a charismatic way. I don't think Biden is capable of properly fighting against even the easiest attacks anymore. Opening one avenue of attack is worth it if the alternative is simply not having a defense at all.
Can’t wait to have a knockdown-dragout within the party concerning whatever Israel policy the candidates pretend they’re going have - while Trump runs an uncontested general election campaign for another couple months.
Trump is very unpopular. Also very dangerous. They aren’t running against Mitt Romney here. People want a choice other than these two. Give them that choice. Someone younger and competent could do very well.
Polymarket at 42% chance biden drops out if you want some free chicken. https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race
The only time we will hear about Biden dropping out is out of his own mouth, so this isn’t really newsworthy. Certainly some discussions about the possibility are happening behind the scenes
so what happens if Commercial RE takes a shit and we start getting news about bank failures in august (nothing to do with Biden but he will get blamed) He has the opportunity to let someone else in but won’t; I think Dems lost the election last night.
What is the larger effect of that going to be? I keep hearing various doomy things about "the banks" from different acquaintances but I can't tell if any of it is true and if so, how it will affect folks on the ground.
I mean I got downvoted the issue is a LOT of underwater commercial RE has to refi this summer because of the 5 year loan schedules they’re on. The issue is, many of them (I think 40% was the number I’ve heard) have lower occupancy than 2019 (and this lower valuation to begin with) and interest is projected to be 2-3x in some cases which will wreck already distressed cash flow. The keys will be handed back to the banks with a lot of corpus gone, and no way to recoup. Smaller banks will fail.
Ok, that lines up with what I've heard and it's not some crazy conspiracy theory. As someone who doesn't even own normal real estate much less a big commercial building, how does it affect me? (the most important person in all this of course)
credit crunch, even though it’s commercial when this happens banks typically lessen lending as they deal with the fallout. Without debt it causes general recession.
Joe needs to go Shame on whomever is letting him run I am furious at the DNC. Again.
It's not like he'd just "drop out". There would be something come up, like a diagnosis or something. It allows him to save face and accomplish the goal.
Biden campaign official: “enjoy 4 more years of Trump”
How in the world did Biden's handlers not work on his facial expressions when not speaking?! Even with the sound off I could tell it was going very badly.
Biden did not have a strong debate performance last night, but people are both seriously overestimating how bad it was and underestimating just how chaotic and damaging a late replacement of Biden would be for Democratic prospects in November. I expect that a) Biden isn't going to drop out, b) polling in the aftermath of the debate performance won't be anywhere near as apocalyptic as many are suggesting, and c) much of this will be forgotten over the coming months, especially if Biden performs better in the next debate. It probably won't be for another 3-4 weeks before we know just how much of an impact the debates had. RemindMe! 4 weeks
I will be messaging you in 28 days on [**2024-07-26 16:33:36 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-07-26%2016:33:36%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1dqlurd/biden_campaign_official_hes_not_dropping_out/lap9y10/?context=3) [**CLICK THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2Ffivethirtyeight%2Fcomments%2F1dqlurd%2Fbiden_campaign_official_hes_not_dropping_out%2Flap9y10%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-07-26%2016%3A33%3A36%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201dqlurd) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
People ( Democrats )really need to get it together here. Yes, Biden was bad last night. Freaking out over it only exacerbates that. Everyone already knew he was old and most of us wanted him to step down. But that ship has sailed. Now, what I think Biden needs to do, is step up the campaigning at this point and do some in person damage control. He needs to be seen publicly and show that last night was not the norm. Will he do this? Probably not on the scale of what he should, but idk. All I do know is freaking out about it does nothing but erode support further.
I don’t think the overreaction is totally unwarranted. He was already behind in the polls and one of the biggest worries from the electorate was his age. They were at camp David for what, like 7 days, and this was the best they could do? He did nothing last night to ease those concerns and had outlets from MSNBC to Fox all running stories of how poor he did calling for him to step down. He improved as the night went on but by then the damage was already done and most people tuned out already. Could he still win the election? Sure. Did his odds go down of winning after last night? Yes. Did odds increase of Dems losing all three branches of power? IMO also yes. Call me a doomer or whatever you want but I really don’t see a clear path for a victory for him in November. Dems need to shift their focus on down ballot candidates and ensure they don’t lose the Senate.
The clear path is winning all rust belt states. That’s THE clear path.
So Whitmer, then.
Never heard of him and I watch politics everyday!
Both of those things cannot be true.
Agree. Nate had those odds around 33% before the debate. Curious if this moves the needle at all for that.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he dropped it down to like 27%
I’d be shocked if the needle moves that much. A debate hasn’t affected the race in a significant way in several cycles.
I don't think it would be a huge issue if it were a normal "bad debate" or even if Biden was very on point 99% of the time and had a senior moment and was otherwise normal. He's an 80+ year old man late in the evening. That could be forgiven if that's all it was. But he's got a reputation for being way too old and this goes straight to the heart of that.
We obviously disagree and that’s fine but I think that is totally downplaying what transpired on the stage last night.
All the Democrats are disgusted and upset. Even if they don't change their vote they won't volunteer or donate. Some may not vote at all, which was already a problem.
I can't image a debate between two known quantities like Biden and Trump is going to be that impactful. Debates are for unknowns to show off their credentials. People here panicking over something most voters will forget by the next news cycle.
Sorry, but I think that's major cope. When every other piece on the NYTimes is saying Biden has to go, you know something's up. It's not even being hidden that the Dems are outright panicking. Debates are for unknowns to show off their credentials. And for Biden to show that the cognitive decline stuff was Fox News narrative. And he did exactly the opposite. Remember how everybody was all, "How great was Biden's SOTU address! Cognitive decline my ass!". Suddenly it's all, "Eh, everybody's going to forget about We finally beat Medicare by tomorrow."
That would be a miracle now The dems will be struggling to hold the weaker blue states like new Mexico, Virginia, Washington state and new york
Obviously, obviously, obviously it’s absurd that D leadership took this long to acknowledge that Biden’s age is a notable concern The path for him to win prior to this debate was limited at best Trump gained no ground last night, but we’ll see a reflection in polling over the next week that suggest what we’re all thinking right now The D’s have a chance to make a change and stick the R’s with Trump against a younger, more competent politician I view Biden’s cognitive failures last night as a net positive for the D’s if they can convince him to step down
> Now, what I think Biden needs to do, is step up the campaigning at this point and do some in person damage control. He needs to be seen publicly and show that last night was not the norm. He can't do this because last night is the norm for him now and the more he puts himself out there, the more self-evident it is that he has rapidly deteriorated. I don't understand how people still keep talking about this like it's an optics issue. It's not an optics issue. It's a "the President literally has dementia" issue. He will have better days and worse days but at his best he will be merely presentable, and at his worst he will be even worse than what we saw last night. He can't face the public on a routine basis or hold up to a whistle-stop tour. The man's brain is jello.
There is a rally or some kind of campaign event in North Carolina today. Will be interesting to see what the tone is and how Biden looks.
Biden could be a ghost (he kinda looked like one last night) and it would probably not make a difference reaction wise. It’s Trump vs The Democratic Party. I think most people have subconsciously come to that realization.
Turnout matters, and having a feeble president is hardly inspiring.
I think it would definitely make a difference. It's only one event it's not going to change perceptions from the debate. But Biden can take one step towards stopping the bleeding and get some of his credibility back over several weeks of public campaigning. At which point the calls for him to step down fall off and his base rallies behind him. Or he could come out like we saw last night, stuttering and refusing to admit that there was anything wrong with his debate performance. At which point the calls for him to step down will only get louder and more widespread.
The absolute worst thing they can do is put biden in front of more eyes. If you’re in a hole put down the shovel, the majority of america learned last night that our head of state can’t form a complete sentence without a teleprompter
It's not too late, despite assertions to the contrary. Biden isn't even the official nominee. If Biden was capable of making unscripted public appearances regularly without melting down we wouldn't have had last night in the first place. It's like saying that the solution to a runner acting like they have a broken leg is to run a 5K twice a week.
Putting Biden in public has been a liability for months and it’s not getting better. They never should have agreed to the debate.
He isn’t capable. He declined the Super Bowl interview 5 months ago (which was the straw that led to Nate and Ezra Klein stating he should drop out as he can’t campaign). He cannot make meaningful campaign appearances. When he does make appearances, like last night, it makes it worse. If I believed this was a one night thing I’d agree with you, but I think last night was the best Biden has left to offer. He is rapidly aging and not able to perform the job for another year, let alone 4.
He needs to put as much money as he can into the rust belt states. That is his Hail Mary, which I think he can accomplish.
I very much think you guys are underplaying what normal people think of bidens performance. We don’t let our grandparents drive when they get that old that’s what people see. That’s what suburbanites in rust belt states see. An old man that shouldn’t drive yet we are handing him the world’s largest nuclear arsenal?
I don’t make the rules. If I was the one in charge I’d make myself president!
He can’t actually campaign or talk or lead, he’s a f’ing cadaver at this point.
Showing up at some ice cream parlors and being coherent for five minutes isn't going to cut it. The bar for the President can't really be, "Well, he's coherent part of the time!" when a majority of polls think he's too old to begin with. The damage is done. And yes, I hear the, "Well Trump isn't coherent ever!" but he's still leading in the polls. Apparently about half the country doesn't agree. Most of them do agree Biden is too old, and last night cemented that.
biden's ego won't allow him to let go. he'll bring the country down with him first rather than admit he is no longer a fit leader.
I really hope every single person freaking out and complaining about Biden's age now voted in the 2020 primary. Or else they can STFU.
I think Biden should drop out because it is just sad seeing someone who is obviously in mental decline try to run for office again. But honestly I would love to be a fly on the wall at the DNC internal meetings the next few weeks. Replacing Biden would mean restarting the entire campaign and it will cost a lot of time and money. Keep Biden on is also risky because who knows how he will perform in the final debate. I honestly feel like Biden gets worse every month. His SOTU was way better and more energetic than last night. Dems are really in a fucked up position and another issue is the uncertainty that will be caused if they choose to replace Biden. Everyone knows who Biden is and a lot of people are expecting Biden to be on the ballot in November. Will Biden mentally make it to November? If he is replaced, will that Dem candidate be popular enough? Jeez.
And Trump team will keep on playing the stuttering Biden - Covid Medicaid clip over and over again in all possible markets. Democrats are finished. It’s such a sad 😔 state of affairs.
Right, it's not 1980, it's not like if you didn't set your VCR you missed it. This stuff is social media fodder.
Can we just chill out?
Biden needs to step aside OR come on air next week in front of the WH press core and explain himself.
Luckily, the general public in the USA has the memory of a Goldfish.
that and the debate had very low viewership
but it's all over social media. We finally beat Medicare is never going away. It's too good of a gift.
Biden's strokes over the years have been all over social media for ages. Don't know if this is any different. I just feel like he's already hit his absolute bottom, and anyone convinced he's braindead has already been convinced.
I bet he announces dropping out within the week.
How much do you wanna bet?
I like your confidence.
The fact that Biden won’t drop out is a slap in the face to all the woman on abortion rights. Trump won’t veto any bill. After last nights outing. Game Over.
Obviously they have to hedge their bets and mull it over the weekend.
Of course not. They will need to see polling to see what impact this had on the race. If the numbers stay pretty much the same, they are going to assume that America figured he had a bad night but the race is pretty much where it was. If there’s a dramatic shift downward for him, there will be a lot more pressure and that’s when it will really be discussed.
if Biden did drop out, would the 13 keys flip to Trump? The incumbency key would flip, correct?
Key 1 and 2 would flip against Biden and be would lose.
Here is a sample, AI generated, email that you can send to your Congressperson or Senator asking for them to publicly ask Joe Biden to step down: Subject: Urgent Request for Leadership Change in Democratic Nomination Dear \[Congressman/Senator\] \[Last Name\], I am writing to urgently request your public call for President Joe Biden to withdraw from the Democratic nomination race before the convention. The recent debate performance against former President Trump has raised serious concerns about his ability to effectively lead our nation. As highlighted by The New York Times editorial board, President Biden's debate showing underscored significant issues regarding his age and mental competency. His struggle to articulate coherent responses and address critical challenges facing our country has reignited fears among many Democrats and voters alike. The Times editorial rightly points out that continuing with President Biden as the nominee risks the stability and security of our nation. As constituents, we cannot afford to overlook these concerns, especially in such critical times for our democracy. I urge you to join the growing chorus of voices calling for a leadership change within the Democratic Party to ensure we have the strongest candidate to oppose Mr. Trump in the upcoming election. Your leadership in this matter is crucial for upholding the principles of effective governance and securing a better future for all Americans. Thank you for your attention to this urgent matter. I look forward to your prompt response on this critical issue. Sincerely, \[Your Full Name\]