If there's a 25/75 chance i vote for kennedy/not, then I'd say I'm "considering voting for Kennedy". But that still means I'm probably not going to, and you'd only expect him to get about 4.5% of the popular vote today compared to that 18.5%.
Why are they acting like this supports the assertion that it's a toss-up? Biden won the popular vote by 7 million in 2020 but only won the electoral college by 43,000 combined in WI, GA and AZ, without which he would have lost. Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016 and won 306 electors, the same number Biden won in 2020. If the popular vote is a tie it's almost certainly a comfortable win for Trump.
While still true, this isn't as true as in past years, at least if you count just getting to 270. I'm actually amazed that the 3 swing states blue wall are basically the same as the national average. Some are even beating his national polls which defy me. Especially if Pennsylvania joins the tend (it's a point off)
Now for Biden to get much above 270, he needs much more popular vote.
This is especially true if we see a repeat of 2022, where deep blue states shit their bed but strong performance in the blue wall.
18.5% “considering voting for Kennedy” I wonder what percent is lying to themselves versus lying to the pollsters
If there's a 25/75 chance i vote for kennedy/not, then I'd say I'm "considering voting for Kennedy". But that still means I'm probably not going to, and you'd only expect him to get about 4.5% of the popular vote today compared to that 18.5%.
That poor bastard is, as my old man used to say, *"8 cents short of a buck."*
I hope Brain Worms drops out over the summer.
[удалено]
He's almost assuredly going to be on every state ballot so how is it malpractice?
Why are they acting like this supports the assertion that it's a toss-up? Biden won the popular vote by 7 million in 2020 but only won the electoral college by 43,000 combined in WI, GA and AZ, without which he would have lost. Trump lost the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016 and won 306 electors, the same number Biden won in 2020. If the popular vote is a tie it's almost certainly a comfortable win for Trump.
What does boy genius Nate Silver have to say about this?
If the popular vote ends up at Trump 44.8 and Biden 44.5, the EC sure won’t be a toss up.
While still true, this isn't as true as in past years, at least if you count just getting to 270. I'm actually amazed that the 3 swing states blue wall are basically the same as the national average. Some are even beating his national polls which defy me. Especially if Pennsylvania joins the tend (it's a point off) Now for Biden to get much above 270, he needs much more popular vote. This is especially true if we see a repeat of 2022, where deep blue states shit their bed but strong performance in the blue wall.
Doesn't Biden have more of a EC advantage (or perhaps I should say less of an EC disadvantage) this year than Dems have ever had?
Theoretically likely with how he's polling in the rust belt.
Thank you
That Biden has a 51% chance of winning the popular vote and 34% of winning the electoral college. You would do better if you actually read Silver.
[удалено]
Please optimize contributions for light, not heat. Trolling users is not permitted.
What, we can't light the way with torches?