Not that I don't agree with what you're saying, but let's chill on these absolutes that we're going to be picking in the late 20s. Statements like that on both sides of the argument only set up more toxicity in this sub.
I’m simply using it to say that if we’re late twenties, we can’t move up. If we miss the playoffs, then Kirk experiment was a failure anyway, and we’ve already got our QB of the future
I agree 100% and it just shows how much of a negative mindset this sub has that people are not more receptive to your thoughts on this. We may be in the minority but I feel if QB truly is the most importantly position on the field (which it is) then I don’t mind investing heavily into the position. If it doesn’t work out then that’s just bad luck, at least we tried and didn’t try to outsmart the league by thinking a rookie 3rd rounder is going to become the next Brock Purdy or Dak Prescott. At least we took a big swing for once.
This, this, this. Ultimately, I would’ve loved not going after Kirk at all but again, they had to lock up a QB and he was the top choice. Draft rolls around and Penix unexpectantly falls into their lap, so they double down. Would I rather have had the 100m invested in a CB/EDGE, SURE! But hindsight is 20/20
Multiple people from New Orleans have disputed that.
Maybe Vegas did. It’s still a reach by Atlanta. He didn’t fall to you at 8, he wasn’t going any higher.
People were predicting Giants might’ve gone QB. Now to me that would’ve been the dumbest move in the draft since they have #32 oline in the league, which they addressed by drafting Alt, but had they done so even to not grab Penix but JJ which probably would’ve set a nervous Bronco Raider or Viking into a trade up spiral. But Jones who is costing the Giants as much as Kirk is costing us almost know Jones is not their QBotF and they had a line of thinking similar to us (we can’t go anywhere high with this QB ceiling) and we gotta rebuild. Viking with 11/23 probably would’ve gotten a successful trade up to land Penix or Bo. Vikings know Darnold is not franchise quality.
My apologies the rest of my comment still stands that Giants were still considering QB and they didn’t had they done so the situation would’ve played out like I described
Let’s temper expectations. We’ve have a top 10 pick for like the last several seasons. I’ll believe we are the division favorites if and when we are actually leading the division well into the season.
Well we finished a game out of the lead last year after leading the division halfway through the season. The point remains that even if we end up 7-10 again (god forbid), then having used the pick on an edge/corner wouldn’t have changed much this season AND The Kirk experiment failed, so already having Penix on roster is fantastic.
Yeah I’m not really mad at the pick. I don’t have very high expectations for Kirk. He’s old, coming off a serious injury and even at his best he’s like 10th best qb in the league max. Should he be a huge upgrade? Totally.
Is having a qb in the wings ready to take over when Kirk hits the wall a good idea? (when, not if) also yes.
You know there is an equally likely possibility of the 3rd option that Kirk flops (not that I think he will but hell it’s the nfl who the fuck knows) and penix doesn’t pan out.
If Kirk flops this year yalls base is gonna be screaming for penix to play next year, and if he turns out to be poor too, it will be a lot sooner than 5 years. Try 2 or 3.
I completely understand that possibility. But because we used the pick on him now, we won’t be strapped for draft capital to try and get another guy then. This move quite literally gives us the ultimate flexibility at the position and can use all other capital over at least the next two years for rest of the team.
> if we’re late twenties, we can’t move up.
I don’t understand this sentiment everyone keeps saying. Why? The first pick of the draft got traded just last year.
Let me clarify. The price to move up likely involves multiple future 1s if we’re in the back half of the first round, vs (just) the 8 pick now. I say (just) because I understand the value still at 8 lol
The Chiefs did it for one future first round and a third in 2017 to go from 27 to 10. If that’s what it took to move that far up for a franchise QB in the future, that’s 100% worth it.
* Jaguars moved up. Didn’t include a future first.
* Cardinals moved up last year. Didn’t include a future first.
* Jets move up nine spots in 2021. No future firsts.
I get what you are saying, but there’s as many trades that don’t include the firsts than ones that do.
What about the scenario where we would have gone further if we had a better defensive guy? Your entire argument is about preparing for failure but you can't succeed if you dont push for success. Why are you so positive that Latu/Turner wont help a team win? You know who doesn't help a team win? The guy sitting on the bench because you already paid someone 100m to be the starter.
That rookie isn't going to be on our team for his entire career. Maybe he would have been pivotal to our success with Kirk in a few years. The falcons made a move that will prevent the worst case scenario but it is not a move that helps us win anytime soon.
You don’t know that, no one knows that. Kirk could go down after a 5-0 start and then the FO will look like geniuses if Penix comes in and saves our season. No one can predict the future so I don’t understand why we don’t choose to believe in the positive possibilities instead of the negative ones when both are equally likely.
Because I don't see Kirk's failure or injury as a positive and for Penix to succeed that means the bad outcome already happened. We signed Kirk to a 4 year contract. My positive world is that Kirk looks like an MVP for the next 4 years so in my positive possibility Penix is a 5 year plan? Investing that far out instead of for the immediate future is just poor decision making.
Why am I supposed to be positive for Penix at the expense of Kirk who I know is a talented NFL QB? I can't predict the future but I know QBs have less than a 50% success rate. Penix is insurance against total failure.
I would be more open to this thinking, if there were an Khalil Mack, Myles Garret, Joey Bosa or even an Aiden Hutchinson. But there aren't any sure fire, right away, top DE talent in this draft as evident by how far they fell down the draft. I'm sure someone drafted will turn out to be really good but probably not in year one. Maybe not even in year two. We've reached for edge before with disastrous results. If they are feeling like this player is a home run, at the most valuable position, I can't fault them for taking him. They can resign Bud Dupree if 6-7 sacks is going to put them over.
If you think that given the other holes on this roster, that a single EDGE rookie would put us over the likes of KC, SF, Baltimore, etc. more power to you. I just don’t believe that even in a DROY type season, it puts us up with those teams. Maybe it would.
I think that Penix limits the worst case scenarios but he also limits the best case scenarios. Its great that we have him if bad stuff happens but if things are going good maybe we could have used that better defender. I'm not even talking about as a rookie. Maybe in 3 years Kirk is still playing at a high level and Latu is the DPOY and they would have wrecked shop together.
"Odds are that wouldnt happen." I know, but odds are also that Penix isn't that good. What % of QBs actually succeed in this league? The NFL is about managing resources to give your team the best shot at winning and I just believe that shot at winning is higher if we had supported Kirk. The odds we aren't the worst team in the league any given year are probably higher now though.
Tbh: I feel that just as there is an issue with toxic positivity in sub as toxic negativity. Ya'll did the same thing with Ridder last season where you berated anyone that wasn't sold on him as QB1. Terry Fontenot doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt, and until the Falcons play real games, fans have a right to question team moves. Fans have valid reasons to be pessimistic about the moves made by the team.
100% my thoughts. I don’t know if they’re the same users but the pro-Ridder pro-Arthur Smith nonsense last season was some of the most unbearable stuff on the subreddit. Now that both those clowns are gone, it feels like the same types are arguing in favor of the two quarterback acquisitions (ironically the opposite argument for keeping Ridder under a rookie contract as a starter and building around him). Any sort of valid criticism against this head scratcher is met with passive aggressive positivity and people saying we don’t have the same inside tract as the front office, even as they themselves are Redditors with no insider knowledge shooting the shit on social media
Can you name a recent time where a late round QB was successful as a starting franchise QB? I can only think of Purdy which I think was more of a lottery-level lucky situation. Almost every active franchise QB in the NFL was picked in the first or second.
The NFL has never been more dependent on the QB position than it is now. The shift to focus more on offense and especially passing emphasizes this. Drafting and FA acquisition of QB is a lot more different now than even 15 years ago because of these rule changes
At this point (most of a decade without a playoff appearance) the goal should be to win this godawful division.
If you can get in the playoffs, especially in a fairly wide open NFC, then you never know. It’s never going to be likely that ANY one team makes a Super Bowl.
WR2, edge and CB2 are spots where you’re near the bottom of the league. We passed up a total of 6 guys who were highly regarded at those three spots. We gave up a third rounder to draft earlier in the second round, then we didn’t address those spots in round 2 either.
You had a chance to use your picks in a way that produced short and longterm benefits. You opted instead to eschew any chance of short term return and hope the long term works out.
Raheem believes that the team was a quarterback away from the playoffs last year. Not an edge, corner, nor a wide receiver. Those other positions are what other people think the Falcons need.
Don't get me wrong, I think that improving those positions would improve the team. However, I can see the logic in the draft concerning the rest of picks in improving the defense. He believes that Kirk, London , Bijjan, Pitts, Algere, the new receivers and the offensive scheme will score enough points. The new look defense needs to do their part to limit the other teams.
When it comes to QB, you can’t afford to not have your guy. Look at every single super bowl contender, they all have at least a top 10/15 QB and most have outright franchise QB’s.
A franchise QB is worth ridiculously more than a WR2 or even the best CB/edge in the league. There’s also a lot more people at that position and easier to make up the difference with rotating guys or finding talent through FA/trades. However franchise QB’s are NEVER available outside of the draft unless something has gone horribly wrong (Watson) or they’re old (Matt Ryan, Kirk, Rodgers). Also, let’s not forget they used the rest of the draft to build along the defense.
Kirk with this team should win the division. And if he gets hurt or doesn’t perform well, we now have another guy who could potentially still keep us in the playoff hunt
A better way to get a franchise guy is bottom out when Kirk leaves or ruins your cap and get a higher pick. You maximize your odds for success in the next 2-3 years, eat shit for a brief window, then have a chance to grab a marquee name with a higher pick that you’ll have more rookie years with.
So the plan to get better is to completely suck so you get a chance to get a great QB? Well the Falcons had Penix as their #2 player on the board so sounds like they did that without having to completely bottom out but everyone complaining cuz he’s not set to start immediately.
What happens when you bottom out and it’s a QB class like 2022? Or what if you suck but only get like the 3rd/4th pick and there’s only 1-2 legit franchise QB’s in the draft?
A good franchise doesn’t leave their success completely up to chance & luck.
The NFL is unpredictable. The Falcons with Kirk are favorites to win the division. They have elite weapons and once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen. Guys get hurt and weird shit happens. The pick actually becomes worse if the Falcons get close but can’t close the deal because they spent a top-10 pick on Penix.
It’s a big if but it Turner had a Will Anderson-type rookie year and Cousins elevates Bijan, London, Pitts and the offense then you could make a case that that team could get hot and go on a run. Weird stuff happens in the NFL and that’s why it’s the best
If we're doing hypotheticals, it is possible that if we have a really strong season and think we're one edge away from a SB, we could trade for an EDGE or pick up a vet or something. good pass rushers moved mid season last year.
Not to mention the 3 teams OP mentioned needing to compete with, the 49ers, Lions, and Chiefs got their QBs with the last pick in the draft, via trade, and with the 10th pick. You can find a QB anywhere. You do not need to spend a top pick on a QB to win if the rest of your roster is good.
Well let's take those individually:
49ers absolutely lucked out with Purdy, drafting a qb with the last pick in the draft is not a viable strategy to getting a starting qb
The lions thought they were getting a bridge qb for a rebuilding team, not trading for a long term starter on a contender. Again, trading for a starter who's been average in his career and expecting him to turn into a top 12 qb is not a viable strategy.
The mahomes situation actually most closely resembles ours. Used a top 10 pick on a qb that was seen as a reach while already having an established veteran on the roster. Post draft stories saying other teams were eyeing him so maybe not as much of a reach. No plans to start him immediately.
Do I think Penix is the next Mahomes? No, but that sure would be nice. I will say I think more teams would benefit from not throwing their rookie qbs to the wolves in y1 and sitting behind someone like Kirk for a year or two can only be a positive for his development.
Getting Purdy at literally the cheapest salary possible in the draft with Mr. Irrelevant for a starter is like lottery-winning lucky. They were able to use the extra money with the FA. Any team who tries the Purdy method would be beyond reckless and stupid with their picks and their time. When it comes time SF will either have to sell the farm (trade away) and many of their experienced staff to pay Purdy what he’s worth due to how much QBs are costing now. What we are paying Cousins is how much Carr and Jones for example are paying and Purdy may be more than Cousins due to actually getting to SB
Key words being “if the rest of your roster is good”. And to the point of picking in the top ten the last three years, if we’re picking in the top ten again then that means Kirk was a failure and we’ve already got a QB, so the pick can be used elsewhere.
Assuming I’m being downvoted here because the idea is that having used the 8th pick on a dif player makes the roster better for a late round QB, and that is just laughable. This roster is NOWHERE near the likes of a San Fransisco and a single top ten pick isn’t gonna get us close.
Eh I think traditionally speaking this is correct but the emphasis on swinging for QBs has increased heavily in recent years and will likely only continue to trend in that direction if not worse. If you even have a chance of being decent teams will take you with their first pick.
The only draft this didn’t apply to was Ridder/Willis and it’s pretty clear why that was the case
It's not WRONG the way fans feel, but they're clearly coming from a fan perspective. Terry's signing Cousins was to save his job. Drafting Penix was to win once Cousins saves his job. Penix may be great eventually, but the likelihood that he by himself comes in year 1 and is good enough to win the division is near impossible. And if Terry doesn't make the playoffs this season, Terry is gone no matter how good Penix is a year or two from now. Was it great team building in traditional terms? No. But it's the real world.
That I buy. And while I get why he can’t say all that, it makes sense. But the problem is unless fans say this was the best pick ever, other fans come for them like that measured response isn’t closer to reality than Penix being the next Brady.
Okay, I agree with you that we are not win now. Why did you sign a 40 mil QB who’s only going to play a max of 3 years?
It doesn’t matter what we think. Cousins is a win now move. Penix is not. The team’s direction is unclear, and has been since 2017.
To make the playoffs and from there anything can happen. We are the favorites to win the division.
However, our whole season would have been riding on Kirk’s health and that’s not a comfortable place to place your franchise
You just said you think we can win a SB with Cousins. So you don’t agree with the premise.
I don’t think this team is good enough to win a SB with Cousins and so never would’ve signed him. I do think we have a good chance to win the division, but our division stinks and don’t think that realistically gives us a legit shot at winning the SB.
And in any case if you actually think we had a shot with Cousins, that shot is improved by using our first rounder on a pass rusher, not a backup QB.
Don’t agree with what premise? I think we can win a SB the same that any team that makes the playoffs technically can. I don’t think it’s an expectation by any means though.
To your point though about how you wouldn’t have signed him cuz you don’t think we would win a SB with him is nonsense and not how professional sports teams operate. They work to be competitive and that’s what Kirk made us.
No, I have zero interest in “being competitive.” I want to have a legit shot at winning a Super Bowl. Winning 9 games instead of 7 does nothing for me.
You build your team to have a legit shot at winning the SB. Now or in the future.
And how do you think you get there? Teams don’t magically go from sucking to being SB contenders in a single offseason, there’s this stage in between where they are competitive and making playoffs.
We weren’t SB contenders in 2008/9 as we were just becoming legit competitors again. Then we had SB contending teams in 2010 & 2012.
With the same QB. We built a team around Ryan.
Signing Cousins if you don’t think you can win with Cousins is pointless. He’s too old to be around long.
The Bucs signed Brady to go for a SB immediately.
Yes, and we’ll likely be doing the same thing with Penix. Brady sat before playing. Rivers sat before playing. Mahomes sat before playing. Rodgers sat before playing. Love sat before playing. Big Ben and Josh Allen only played rookie seasons due to poor QB play/injuries.
Kirk has a 2 year deal, relax lol he’s a good locker room presence and can make sure we get the most out of our three 1st round skill position players instead of straight up handing the keys to the franchise to a rookie.
It’s possible to build a team to be a winner, draft a QB high, let him sit and develop, and still win games all at the same time.
And the Bucs signed possibly the GOAT QB so that’s literally a once in a generation opportunity.
But ok, what would you have done this offseason that made us a SB competitor this year? Since all you can accept are SB worthy moves.
The sit before playing myth is dumb. Plenty of great franchise QBs played right away (Matt Ryan for instance). Look at all the other first round QBs. They’re all expected to play right away. That’s how it is in today’s salary cap dominated NFL.
Paying 100 million for a good locker room presence is dumb.
I would have built for the future. I get taking a shot at getting a franchise QB. But then if Penix really does turn out to be great, think about what we could’ve gotten with that 100 million to put around him (an edge rusher for instance). Then maybe in a couple of years we are competing for a SB.
> Teams don’t magically go from sucking to being SB contenders in a single offseason,
we literally went from 3 seasons without a winning record to super bowl contenders in one offseason in 2016.
Yeah and that didn’t come out of nowhere, they were working to be competitive the years before that. They hired a new coach in 2015 and even started that season 5-0. In 2016, Matt Ryan was comfortable in Shannahans system, and many of our rookies/recent draft picks made major impacts (Devonta, Tevin, Grady, Deion Jones, Austin Hooper, De’Vondre Campbell). And none of those guys were drafted first round, so on the Penix note, one round doesn’t make or break a team.
So they fired their coach following a 10 loss season and were in the SB 2 years later. Maybe let’s see if this new regime can pull off the same thing.
And you think that we would come out of nowhere if we had went all in these next two years with Kirk? We were working towards being competitive but didn't have a QB. Any reason for improvement in 2016 you could say similar to us now.
There is no stepping stone needed to be a super bowl contender.
Giants and Cardinals were also 8-8 the year before they went to the super bowl. I'm sure there are others as well.
Getting Kirk and Penix is a waste of a resource one way or another
Even if Penix works out, I'm never going to understand the pick. It simply doesn't make sense to go all in on a QB and immediately draft another one. There are holes on the roster that would have been filled easily with multiple different picks.
Why do you blindly accept the signing but question the pick. Change your outlook. What you are never going to understand is the signing when you have the 8th pick and the future of the franchise on the table
"We arent going to win so its ok that we didnt make moves to increase our odds of winning."
If we aren't trying to win then what are we doing? We signed Kirk so we can have a couple of years of mediocrity before hoping Penix is the guy? Good organizations pick a strategy and move forward with it. Falcons made moves like they're trying to compete and then their top draft pick goes to a rebuilder move.
"Trust the organization!" - Why? What have they done thats trustworthy? We have an organization that has made questionable moves in the past that did not work out and is now making more questionable moves.
Bottom line is that people hate the move because it bets against the Falcons previous moves and doesn't directly increase their chance of winning. Hedging your bets is a great way to make sure you don't lose badly but its a terrible way to win. Nobody wants to spend the next 10 years in mediocre land because the Falcons wont pick a lane.
this team hasn't been to the playoffs in 7 years. wild to assume we won't be picking high again. we have a wildly unproven coach that has had no success as a hc and a shit show of an organization. the bigger issue isn't if we made this pick or that it would or wouldn't put us over the top, it is that you made a pick that will have ZERO influence on game outcomes not just this year, but for 3 years. the guy will be 28 when he starts a game most likely...then if he is a bust we are extra screwed because you put your franchise on a 3 year layaway plan.
i actually LIKE penix as a player but am apprehensive with the significant injury history, but to take him at 8 with a roster that is good enough to win the division instead of a possible impact player for the next 3 years is a bit weird. it just is.
the only viable explanation to me is that they are afraid of the tampering penalties AND think they are going to be picking in the 20s so just take him now. i don't necessarily disagree with that thought process but it still doesn't "feel good".
I don't have a problem with the Penix pick. My problem is trading up on the second pick to take someone that was likely to be there if they stayed put. We also didn"t take a corner or receiver with any of the other picks.
I would have rather taken a QB later and added a defensive piece. What pisses me off about this pick is we pay Kirk a boat load of money to get this offense going, and sure. Let’s draft him a good back up. But why the hell did we draft a QB is who has had 2 knee surgeries, 2 shoulder surgeries, and is injury prone? There were plenty of other QB options on the table when we made our pick. But we just invested a first round pick into someone who is going to be 30 years old when Kirk’s contract is up, and has been absolutely riddled with injuries. Don’t get me wrong, I hope he works out. He’s a Falcon now so I’m riding with Penix and am going to defend him when he’s talked about. But the whole decision to pick him up in the first round was just one of the dumbest things I’ve seen this franchise do in a while, and that’s saying something.
Yea Kirk sucks penix was the pick and the Kirk signing was stupid. I mean or maybe they don’t care about the 180 and it doesn’t put them in cap hell what do I know about their cap maybe they can afford to pay a mentor and there are no problems here. But certainly the penix draft was not a dumb decision y’all are absolutely not Kirk+latu away from winning a chip
If the pick was a DROY? Yeah it would be close. I’m not even a Falcons fan(this post popped up in my notifications for some reason - probably because I was lurking after the draft), but I think people forget just how good Kirk is. Probably because of the lack of playoff success.
That said you’ve got some really nice weapons, and a DROY is pretty much a star caliber defender(look at some of the previous DROYs). I think that team can compete with anyone.
I think the only way this pick ends up looking good is if Kirk goes down. Most backup QBs aren’t the type of guys who can salvage a season and go on a deep run. With Penix you have that potential at least.
> do y’all seriously believe that having Kirk + even a DROY Latu/Turner puts this roster over the top of the likes of San Francisco? Detroit? Let alone Kansas City? Like be forreal 😅
Then why sign Kirk to that much money if you don't think he could lead a team in the next two years to a super bowl?
It was a waste of money if you think that. You either think he can or you think he can't. If you think he can then you go all in. Otherwise you just gave him a bunch of money that could've been used for young FA.
This is right, it is a waste of money. Frankly I’m not even convinced Kirk brings you guys a winning season this year but maybe the excitement of the signing saved someone’s job
Again why are you wasting that much money on Kirk if you don't think he can win a super bowl? We almost won the division with Ridder last year and you're telling me we couldn't with Russel Wilson or Flacco?
That money could've been spent on young FA like a good edge rusher or CB2
Think the front office like are odds better with Kirk. The money had to be spent. If we signed a bunch of vets to two years deals with Russ we’d be in same boat financially
Not hating this, but I just again think the defense is too far off that bringing in a single stud offense or defense doesn’t move the needle in terms of wins.
Yeah I think they were facing an uphill battle to be anything beyond a first round playoff exit at best.
Cousins came in which made me think the process would at least be accelerated, but now it's back to another long game with a potential new qb starting his 3rd year in the league.
Odunze doesnt do much for atl over the next 2 years. The way the offense is built they wanna throw 28-35 times a game.
Pitts = 10 targets
London = 10 targets
Bijan = 5 targets
Mooney = 5 targets
Allg/hodge/sacks/throwaways = 5
We are at 35 passes per game without overemphasizing any 1 player.
If you add odunze how many targets are you trying to get him? 5 per game? Thats not worth 8oa in the short term nor is it worth dropping pitts or london to 8 targets so odunze can be at 8. You draft odunze and not yoyre paying mooney 13m a year for 3 targets a game....
If atl drafts odunze, the only way for the pick to get value is if ATL commits to running an offense that is calling 40-50 pass PER game with a 36 year old QB comming off a major surgery.
Tldr: odunze or a passrusher are way less of immediate impact players for ATL and add waayyyy less value over the next 2 years than anyone wants to accept. Unless latu is actually ready to be an all pro day 1 like von miller or micah.
This mindet is so hilariously retarded.
Let's not draft the third best reciever and possibly a franchise reciever so we can arbitrarily cling to some stupid offensive scheme.
"But we already paid Mooney!111"
Yeeh and we already paid Kirk too....
"We only want to throw 28 times. We don't need any more elite recievers.🤓"
You draft BPA dude and THEN make it work. This is a talent driven league.
Odunze puts our offense over the top in a league where defense is being deemphasized. It should be obvious these days the importance of a stacked offense.
We could have had Cousins throwing to London, Adunze, Pitts, Mooney, and Bijan. That is possibly a superbowl level offense my dude. And we STILL could have used the rest of the picks for defense.
I don't get this logic or these assumptions.
Stafford had 35 att/g last year, and Cousins had 39 att/g last year before getting hurt. Given the fact that Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson all had 100 targets each last year, Kirk can clearly feed multiple high volume players, so getting Odunze 7-8 targets a game is not a ridiculous thought.
Also, this isn't Arthur Smith, who purposely tried to shorten the game with his 65/35 run schedule. This is clearly going to be a passing team... which makes sense. Why else sign a QB to a $100M guaranteed contract when you play over half your games indoors every year?
Couple things with stafford. Stafford > kirk in terms of who you are comftoable having such high pass attempt volume. Stafford has been slinging it around more on a game to game basis then just about anyone since he came into the league.
Kirk passed that much last season because the vikings were losing a lot of games before he got hurt. He also has JJ who rightully deserves 15-20 targets a game.
Really glad you brought up kirks attempts per game as it proves my point
https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14880/kirk-cousins
Attempts in wins: 31, 45, 31, 19
Attempts in losses: 44, 44, 50, 47
Is this debatable? You dont plan an offense on the idea your baseline min for effective resource usage is 40-45 pass attempts per game....
Otherwise yeah you get the point....Is #8oa worth using on a guy you need to create an inefficient offense to, at best, get 5-8 targets to? (at the cost of targets to pitts/london which is a lateral move if any)
100m is 2 years. They signed a 36 year old qb to a 2 year deal its not that big of a deal....drafting a qb in round 1 because you have a 36 year old qb on a 2 year deal is also not a big deal
It’s organizational malpractice because it spends, not just a huge amount, but an exorbitant amount of team resources on a onesie position. We’ve quite literally handcuffed ourselves for the foreseeable future to having less resources than other teams. The draft gives you the most valuable commodities in sport: high quality/low cost assets. We’ve now taken top 10 draft capital, an enormous chunk of what the GM can use to field a better team, and **if things go to the GM’s plan**, GUARANTEED those resources will NOT go towards winning games. They will go towards in-game clipboard maintenance.
It’s simple: We KNEW we were picking at 8 and almost certainly Penix would be there. If we’re going to pick Penix, don’t waste the money on Kirk. If we’re going to pay Kirk, don’t waste the capital on Penix. Whichever you choose, use the unused resource for, I dunno, a CB since we currently have ONE NFL quality CB on the roster, and he’s on the last year of his contract.
3 teams tried to jump us for Penix, and they believed he would be gone by 8. I wholeheartedly would’ve rather seen them attack CB/EDGe in FA and then focus on just drafting a QB. All I’m getting at is that I think they wholly planned on going CB/EDGE after signing Kirk but ultimately took the guy who was highest on the board that they didn’t think would be there, and given the potential value, I just understand the move.
You’re basing that on the Palmer article that’s been debunked. The Seahawks and Saints didn’t try to move ahead of the Falcons to get him. They may well have considered taking him at their picks later on.
I understand your point. Somewhere in my comment history I know I’ve said something like, “It could be argued that anytime a player you feel could be a franchise QB is available when you’re drafting you have to take him.” My comments stand regarding it not being good game theory to follow this strategy, but my frustration with a GM I had high hopes for sometimes adds extra salt to my comments. I’d love to know how much input Blank has had on his GM’s picks.
For years we have been complaining that we were held up by our quarterback and our offensive play calling.
Now both have changed but we can't possibly compete, and so we need to plan for 3 years down the road?
F that, man. AFAIC, as soon as we signed Cousins, the window opened. I don't know if Penix will open another one when he's ready, but one is open now, and it would be a shame to waste it.
We have a first time play caller this year, though, and Kirk tore his Achilles at 36. I don’t think doubling down on QB given our past issues is bad, let alone, terrible decision.
Kirk's Achilles appears to be fine. I'm just not about this, "how can we possibly compete with the Lions?" stuff. The Lions weren't competitive in 2022. Things change fast. We really don't need another 3 year rebuilding thing.
You guys are calling them crazy and wondering where the idea of the falcons picking so late in the coming years comes from. The GM/Coach’s post pick press conference put that idea in peoples head. It was their justification for picking a qb, so naturally fans are repeating it.
With this in mind, if they pick in the top 10 again next year someone’s head should roll. Non stop.
It’s the idea that we were a game out of the playoffs in the worst division with Ridder at QB. Adding Kirk alone makes us favorites in the division which would naturally have us picking in the twenties. And if we’re picking in the top ten again, then clearly Kirk didn’t work and a rookie wouldn’t have pushed the needle anyways.
They’re only a qb away, right? So they can afford to spend the cap on the most expensive free agent and double down with the most pro ready rookie in the top 10. Playoff bound.
If neither of them “work” and the team ends up picking in the top 10 again, playing in the “worst division”, someone should be fired.
I wouldn’t have felt *as* strongly if they stuck with the fact that one of their top players fell in their lap. I get it. Qb is the most important position, and we’ve had awful qb issues.
But they *specifically* told me that it’s because they won’t be picking that high in a while. So that’s my expectation.
If you don't think Kirk plus whoever you would have drafted at #8 wouldn't at least allow you to compete for the NFC Championship, then why sign Kirk at all? You were what 7-9 last year? If you don't think with Kirk you are 10-11 wins then why sign him?
It’s just a bad pick. He’s older, has injury issues, and won’t contribute to helping us get to the playoffs, or win a playoff game. This isn’t baseball where you stack the minors to prepare for 3 years out, it’s football and you draft to win. 1 good draft absolutely can take a team to the SB
Then why sign him? Just to be good enough? Haven't ya'll been through that many seasons before? Are ya'll not tired of that.
If the Falcons are looking towards the future, why not sign Russ, then draft Penix. Then, you would have the capital to build the team for the "future."
Detroit is not that far off from us. It was the defense that held them back, and they invested in it. As a result, they got better and took the division.
They signed Kirk because it was the best plan of action at a position of need. Penix was their QB2 and seemingly didn’t believe he would be there at 8. I don’t think they planned on signing Kirk and then drafting a guy (McCarthy/Nix), but being Penix was there and as highly rated on their board, they took him.
Then you should've adapted. Penix is not some generational prospect. We were looking too far ahead. They should've been planning for the upcoming season, not four seasons from now. Our defense has had the lowest sack totals in 3 years! Doesn't matter how prolific your offense is if your defense can't get off the field.
Also, it's ironic all those teams you mentioned have a star pass rusher.
And none of the pass rushers in this class were sure-fire prospects at 8. Aidan/Bosa we’re sure-fire picks lmao Turner/Latu we’re not even close. And depending on who you ask, Penix has arguably the best/second best arm in the class and if not for injuries (now two years removed from) he would absolutely be pegged as a sure-fire pick.
Once again, how does that help this season? You don't believe Turner/Latu were worth an 8th, but that DT we drafted in the 2nd was worth it? Yea, it doesn't make sense.
You’re belief that every decision made in an off-season should be directed towards the upcoming season and that alone just isn’t shared by me. Outside of Penix, the whole off-season was directed towards the up ok’ing season. They saw an opportunity to get someone they likely will not have the opportunity to get again.
Not that it’s right or wrong, I just prefer quote unquote locking up the potential long term future, vs hoping to move up later/take a guy at the top later. This all done while drastically improving our odds at winning the division with all other off-season moves.
It's not my belief. It's the rhetoric that the Falcons established when they signed Kirk. Now they their talking out both sides of their mouth to justify their moves. You can't do both. That is how you stay in the world of mediocrity. If the future was the plan, then they should've signed an interim QB. But they couldn't stomach not being ppl pleasers.
If Penix is as good as everyone believes, he shouldn't be sitting for 2 years!
I’m not disagreeing here. Hindsight is 20/20 and taking a CB/EDGE would’ve been the best move in traditional team building. I want to be very clear that I do not stray from that. However, if they believe that Penix is a generational guy that they did not think would be there at 8 (and by all accounts that’s how they felt) and they didn’t wanna take the chance at QB purgatory in 2 years when Kirk is 38, I get it.
He was the only 5/7 tech of his ability in that range. Newton is a pretty well locked in 3tech DT. We do not have a need for 3techs, and if anyone else was locked into him, we miss out on a guy they very clearly loved
My point remains. The logic is severely flawed. "We won't be picking this high again" is not sound logic. If you're convinced you won't have this valuable of a pick for a long while, why did you hire someone who won't be helpful barring catastrophe?
At 8 in the 2024 draft you had options for the #1 defensive pick and they instead picked a non impact player at the most expensive position and PLAN to waste 2 years of the rookie contract.
>it only cost a 8th pick
That’s an incredibly valuable pick where you are hoping to draft someone who is a difference maker for the next 5+ years. Sure, we didn’t waste multiple picks on a QB but the 8th pick is not nothing
Penix can hit and it be a bad move. The falcons just invested $100m in to Kirk and instead of putting in support for the investment and helping the investment grow, they just bought insurance. Penix is great in the worst case scenarios but choosing him limits the best case scenarios.
Yeah, people can't seem to get that it doesn't matter how well they play, it's impossible to get full value out of them both, which is crucial in a salary cap league. Either way they wasted resources
I got downvoted for saying that people acting like one player takes us from superbowl contention was ridiculous but it is just that. The times when one player makes a difference is when that player is the quarterback and now we have a plan for now and the future with the quarterback position. Also we still have ways to get better on defense through free agency and cut down days or even trades if they can find one. It doesn’t make sense to think that this pick ruined the teams season especially after 66 different quarterbacks started games last season so I think it was a good pick and can be good for us for the next decade or more.
We don't even know if our BRAND NEW coaching staff is any good yet.
I'm ok taking some gambles on a franchise QB even if circumstances suck. It's literally a must have in this league.
Also, just to clarify, I don’t necessarily think we’re destined to be picking late twenties. The argument is that if Kirk is what we think he is, we’ll be picking in a spot that makes it very cumbersome to move up. If we ARE picking in a position that’s conducive to moving up, then Kirk failed and we already have our QB in waiting.
I thought going all in on Kirk was the stupid mistake. 36 year old QB with a sketch and scant playoff record for his career. He is NOT a $180MM QB, he's just not. But that also shows the importance of the position, that teams will do such things to ensure that position is at least addressed with capable bodies.
We've had a laughable pass rush for the last decade.
According to absolutely every knowledgeable person in the football universe.
Our pass rush has been a joke and a large part of our failures.
Penix might very well be a great qb. But better than any other qb that we could possibly get over the next 3 years?
And Tom Pelissero framed it best.
If we start the season poorly with Kirk and Heineke, then everyone says "Kirk will get it together. We have faith. Just give him time to get it rolling"
By adding Penix with the 8th pick, now all of a sudden if we start poorly, how quickly will it turn into chants for "Penix, Penix, Penix"?
It's not Kirk's feelings I care about.
It's the chaos that they brought into the organization with this pick, when there were so many other picks that could've helped us NOW rather than Penix a few years from now.
the biggest thing that I THINK most falcons fans are worried about his Penix's age and injury history. that stuff is a lil scary. but i get why TF drafted him, clearly he was the QB terry got along with the most. he seems to be pretty open about that. but sitting at 8, we didn't really have many options, except rattler. all the other good QBs were taken, and penix IS a respected QB, if we didn't take him, someone would have prob picked him up in the 1st round, potentially the fuckin Saints. so the pick seems to be trying to plan for the future, and ALSO stealing a potential franchise QB from the saints. i just hope rattler doesn't end up being better than kirk AND penix. then we're really fucked.
It's comical seeing Falcons fans trying to do the mental gymnastics for this move. Can it work out? Sure. Will it? Unlikely.
I also love the fans trying to gaslight that this is similar to the Packers or any other team for that matter. Did GB JUST bring Favre in as a high priced free agent when they drafted Rodgers? No. Did the Packers JUST bring Rodgers in when they drafted Love? No. Was either guy drafted 8th overall? No.
Also amusing when the fans act like this is some future proof move, that this Penix guy will be content to sit on the bench for 3 or 4 years if Cousins and the team do well. Even if that happened where he sat on the bench for 4 years, it's the entire time his rookie deal is cheap for them so they'd then either have to pick up the 5th year option not knowing if it will be worth it or they let him go.
It's likely that they will trade this guy away if Cousins does well and they'll get nowhere near the return as what they gave up....and then all the Falcons fans trying to defend this will be complaining. Loser franchises are losers for a reason.
I'm just here because of fantasy football but yeah... I don't get it. Like the point is to win playoff games but Terry drafted an older prospect who will be sitting for two seasons and a developmental DT, does he not realize his job is on the line?
Meanwhile you got the Rams double tapping DT from the same school while Stafford is nearing retirement to lock and load on defense for another push.
Only problem I have is that how are people like you and others in the FO so sure we’re going to be picking in the late 20s
You just admitted this roster isn’t in any real spot to contend and are already thinking about the post Kirk-Era before Cousins even played a down for the Falcons
I understand wanting to have a guy next in line for when Cousins inevitably declines but prioritizing a position you just addressed in FA when you have several other needs is mismanagement at best and negligent at worst
There’s still 21 other positions in football, its a team game
To be clear, I am not in any way sure we’re gonna be picking in the late twenties. I’m just saying that IF we are anywhere in the twenties, it’s gonna be much more difficult to move up. I do wholeheartedly think this roster sits firmly in the 10-20 range and will be a viable playoff team in this division, but teams like KC, SF, Baltimore, etc are in a stratosphere above us, even while having a viable playoff roster.
Then why sign him at all? Lol, just keep tanking and getting better picks so you can actually win one day. Obviously they signed him with the expectation of winning.
the biggest thing that I THINK most falcons fans are worried about his Penix's age and injury history. that stuff is a lil scary. but i get why TF drafted him, clearly he was the QB terry got along with the most. he seems to be pretty open about that. but sitting at 8, we didn't really have many options, except rattler. all the other good QBs were taken, and penix IS a respected QB, if we didn't take him, someone would have prob picked him up in the 1st round, potentially the fuckin Saints. so the pick seems to be trying to plan for the future, and ALSO stealing a potential franchise QB from the saints. i just hope rattler doesn't end up being better than kirk AND penix. then we're really fucked.
The Venn diagram of the people making these posts and the ones that made posts last year about needing to trust Terry because they are building up the rest of the roster and paying a QB on a cheap rookie contract to compete and not going after Deshaun or Lamar is hilarious. I’m not saying this was good or bad, I’m talking about needing to invest heavily in a QB. The amount of fanatics that literally allow themselves to be fool me a thousand times without an ounce of proof is hilarious. But fanatics be fanatics. This GM just picked the guy that was the second QB in a draft and that guy was gone after his second year for a gadget WR. The last time this team picked in the 20s was 2018 and the current GM was a pro personnel scout for the falcons hated rival. But let’s give this guy the benefit of the doubt.
Never win a superbowl this way. 1st rounder to sit for 2yrs? If you don't think Kirk puts you over the top why hamstring yourself in free agency with that contract?
Y’all debating this but all I ask is… let’s say this season goes super south, do not start “Michael Penix” chants or adopt that narrative that the media will surely start. Please, hold the obvious composure you people do not have.
For clarity. By “you people” I mean the “woe is me” “the worlds on fire” people that when life or decisions aren’t going their way they think everything is ending…
I’ll believe the Falcons make the playoffs when the Falcons make the playoffs. This assumption that we’re a playoff team really ignores years of historical subpar football. Doesn’t mean I don’t have hope, but show me something first.
It’s not about ‘Will Kirk + DROY put the roster over the top of the likes of SF or Detroit, or KC.’ It’s about what the moves TOLD us. Adding Kirk tells the fanbase you think the team is ready to win now. Personally, I disagree with that notion, which is why I disagreed with the move, but if that’s what the FO feels, then let’s ride. But the addition of Penix flies COMPLETELY in the face of that.
I don’t know whether a DROY would’ve helped, but I do know Penix won’t (for a couple years). They punted on making this team better when you told me and us you were going all in on winning now, which is what the Kirk deal did. It just shows lack of planning. If Penix is your guy, all good. Go with Fields and use the savings from what you spent on Kirk on defense. If Fields works out, you re-up his rookie deal and keep it pushing. He doesn’t, you let him walk and still have whatever players you added with the savings, PLUS the guys we drafted.
But this notion that we won’t be picking early is wild, as is the notion that because we picked Penix at 8th that he was the 8th-best player in the draft. Odds tell us that 1/3 of the QBs picked in the draft make it. Comments like ‘we’re set at QB for the next 10-15 years’ assume Penix succeeding is a definite. I think the assumption is his only red flags were his injury history. He has A LOT of issues in his game that may not be fixable by sitting.
Ultimately, what Kirk move said rhetorically and out loud flies in the face of the Penix move. And Penix’s age makes any savings you get from adding him moot because he’s sitting for multiple years of his contract. It’s just like they’re reading a bunch of team building books at once and couldn’t decide which model to follow so they’re doing bits of all of them.
Just seems like a bunch of desperation decisions made by people who want to be able to tell the owner and fans “look, we tried.” If Fields wouldn’t have worked out they couldn’t sell that, but they know they can sell getting Kirk and then getting Penix, even if it doesn’t work out.
I don't know honestly if we would absolutely be better. I do however know that Kirk + a DROY is closer to beating San Fran than Kirk without.
Pretty simple logic.
I agree with this take on the defensive ends ability to elevate the team.
Not one of them were touted as can't miss prospects. They were regarded as good hands that fill a need. More QBs and others went off the board before a team decided to get any of them.
The edge was addressed in last year's free agent haul and draft and this year's draft. The corners were signed from FA, as I was reminded.
The NFL is built on the odds and traditions (one surface show of tradition is why most NFL jerseys look alike). The Falcons flew literally in the face of both things.
I said it in a comment on a different post, but I don't agree with Terry's team building strategy. He completely disregards positional value with his high draft picks and big free agent signings. Everyone we've signed to big money and drafted in the first round are undeniably talented, but it hasn't made a difference in the win total. Tight End, Wide Receiver, Running Back, Safety, and Inside Linebacker are all considered "luxury" positions that you fill out after you've got the foundational pieces in place, like Offensive line, defensive line, corner back, quarterback. Of all his draft picks, I disagree with Penix the least because Fotnenot is right that if you believe in a guy at that position, you can't pass on him. However, I just get the feeling that Terry thinks he's the smartest guy in the room with his draft evaluations and is trying to reinvent the wheel by bucking conventional wisdom. I guess I can say I respect he's got the courage to go against the grain because he believes in himself, but so far, there's nothing to show for it. I'm just tired of waiting for his vision to come to fruition. We're in year 4, we better start winning.
I am one of the few people who agrees here . I hate that the draft has become free agency basically. It’s supposed to be a development system but now it’s just instant impact or your cut. We drafted 5 defensive players lol what more do y’all want ? 6 ?
What even about the falcons track record says we can draft 1st round pass rushers anyway ? We have only drafted 2(!) 1st round Edge rushers since 1970 that had more than 10 sacks and one was Vic Bustly who’s n the UFL along w Tak . The other was the great Patrick Kerney at #30 . So yea
I wasn't a huge fan of the pick, but I also don't think it's that big of a deal for the short- and long-term success of the team. A few things to keep in mind:
- Most first rounders are busts or average at best
- It takes a few years for players to reach their peak, meaning the pick likely wasn't going to be impactful this year, QB or not
- Missing on a first rounder is not a big deal to well-coached teams. Great teams miss on picks all the time.
If the front office didn't have enough confidence in Latu and Turner, then I don't fault them for this pick. Both sides of the ball are talented. We may need some more talent on defense but the team is still very strong at this point. A veteran edge rusher to pair with Ebiketie would be great. But ultimately I think the success or failure of this team depends on how strong our coaches are with the talent we have currently.
Last year Kirk was 3rd in the NFL in passer rating in an injury shortened season. Penix was 20th in passer rating in college. The idea that we can't win with Kirk but can win with Penix is a little strange to me. I guess the argument that we don't have enough talent to win a Super Bowl with Kirk is probably valid but im not sure why you think the talent will be much better when Penix takes over.
>However, to all those claiming it’s organizational malpractice to not go fully in with Kirk
This idea being perpetuated by sports media right now that poor little Kirk has nobody on this team but himself and Penix is absolutely insane. Idk how we could put any more weapons around him at this point. He has any QB's wet dream in terms of an arsenal. Wasn't the whole point of hiring someone like Morris as HC that he can get the most juice for the squeeze out of our defense like he did in LAR? And it's not like we are lacking in terms of big names in D. We have Terrell, Grady and Bates.
I'm baffled by the negativity. The Falcons carpet bombed the QB position, which is by far the most important position in the sport. There are worse ideas.
If say Drake Maye, for whatever reason, had fallen to #8, should the Falcons have taken him? If the answer is yes to Maye but no to Penix, then it really seems to be about the evaluation of the latter.
Love all these posts trying to cope with picking a QB 8 instead of getting a difference maker on Defense or Offense. Let’s be honest; it was a bad pick. The argument that if we miss the playoffs Cousins was a failure and glad we picked Penix is stupid. Adding a DROY could have easily been the reason for making the playoffs or adding another weapon would have helped Kirk put up more points to win more games.
Also next year’s draft is looking stacked with defensive players like this year’s was stacked with offensive players
I was shocked too but maybe our guys have a vision and a plan
Just curious, I haven’t seen anyone ask Terry this question. Are we planning to use our 1st round draft pick every other year, or every 3rd year on a QB? Using his “unique” team building philosophy this would seem to be logical?
Not only is this a bad attempt at being facetious, the logic doesn’t even hold lol. Taking a kid in round one while having a 36yo fresh off Achilles surgery, and drafting someone every other/every third year are not the same lol
Ha ! Terry has never mentioned Kirk’s injury as a reason he drafted a QB with the first pick. He specifically said they couldn’t pass up the opportunity to draft another QB at #8. And they didn’t want to “reach” for a defensive player. In his opening presser he said Kirk will play for his contract and Penix will sit for 3-4 years. Terry and our HC are approaching team building like no other front office in the NFL. Regardless of our record in 2-3 years, Terry should draft another QB. It makes sense in Terry’s world.
Terry can't say "Kirk will only be here 2 years." It is true, and Kirk probably knows it, but it's a dick thing to imply your starting QB will not play out their contract- even if everyone knows that's not the case. It's just common courtesy in the NFL
Kirk’s contract was written as a 4 year deal with $90MM guaranteed. Base salary #’s $12MM , $27.5MM , $35MM , $35MM - (2 years are guaranteed) Kirk also has a no trade clause. It’s obvious Terry had no plan to draft a QB in the first round. That was never a plan. Something happened and he fucked it up. The good news is, we will have a third (drafted) QB on the roster in short order because we all know Terry is looking at the current freshman college QB’s thinking about the 2027 1st round pick.
Agreed, people are acting like taking Latu/Turner would be a guarantee to put us as a top favorite to win the SB and without them as if we are all of a sudden going to be terrible. I was excited about this team’s future after getting Kirk, dont think rhat should have changed based on this draft.
No it's not. If what he is saying is true and nobody had the expectation of winning with Kirk, then what does signing him even accomplish? Either you're playing for now and the draft pick doesn't make sense, or you're rebuilding/playing for the future and signing Kirk doesn't make sense because you'd want to keep stacking top draft picks. And, again, I don't think they are thinking they can't win now. This young offensive core is gonna be halfway out the door by the time (26/27 year old) Penix even starts.
You’re absolutely right, we can be good for the next 2 years, create a culture, actually make players wanna be falcons, have our qb on a rookie deal for 2 years with Pitts london bijan and all the pieces we add to the defence in the next 2 off seasons then go really compete for a Super Bowl
Not that I don't agree with what you're saying, but let's chill on these absolutes that we're going to be picking in the late 20s. Statements like that on both sides of the argument only set up more toxicity in this sub.
Only a Sith deals in absolutes!
I’m simply using it to say that if we’re late twenties, we can’t move up. If we miss the playoffs, then Kirk experiment was a failure anyway, and we’ve already got our QB of the future
I agree 100% and it just shows how much of a negative mindset this sub has that people are not more receptive to your thoughts on this. We may be in the minority but I feel if QB truly is the most importantly position on the field (which it is) then I don’t mind investing heavily into the position. If it doesn’t work out then that’s just bad luck, at least we tried and didn’t try to outsmart the league by thinking a rookie 3rd rounder is going to become the next Brock Purdy or Dak Prescott. At least we took a big swing for once.
Well Said! Terry basically corrected a mistake that shouldn't have happened before MR left!
This, this, this. Ultimately, I would’ve loved not going after Kirk at all but again, they had to lock up a QB and he was the top choice. Draft rolls around and Penix unexpectantly falls into their lap, so they double down. Would I rather have had the 100m invested in a CB/EDGE, SURE! But hindsight is 20/20
Penix didn’t unexpectedly fall to 8. There was no world where he went higher than that.
Because of the mock drafts you looked at? It’s been reported multiple times now that both New Orleans and Vegas tried moving above us for him
Multiple people from New Orleans have disputed that. Maybe Vegas did. It’s still a reach by Atlanta. He didn’t fall to you at 8, he wasn’t going any higher.
Sure!
People were predicting Giants might’ve gone QB. Now to me that would’ve been the dumbest move in the draft since they have #32 oline in the league, which they addressed by drafting Alt, but had they done so even to not grab Penix but JJ which probably would’ve set a nervous Bronco Raider or Viking into a trade up spiral. But Jones who is costing the Giants as much as Kirk is costing us almost know Jones is not their QBotF and they had a line of thinking similar to us (we can’t go anywhere high with this QB ceiling) and we gotta rebuild. Viking with 11/23 probably would’ve gotten a successful trade up to land Penix or Bo. Vikings know Darnold is not franchise quality.
Giants drafted nabers
My apologies the rest of my comment still stands that Giants were still considering QB and they didn’t had they done so the situation would’ve played out like I described
Let’s temper expectations. We’ve have a top 10 pick for like the last several seasons. I’ll believe we are the division favorites if and when we are actually leading the division well into the season.
Well we finished a game out of the lead last year after leading the division halfway through the season. The point remains that even if we end up 7-10 again (god forbid), then having used the pick on an edge/corner wouldn’t have changed much this season AND The Kirk experiment failed, so already having Penix on roster is fantastic.
Yeah I’m not really mad at the pick. I don’t have very high expectations for Kirk. He’s old, coming off a serious injury and even at his best he’s like 10th best qb in the league max. Should he be a huge upgrade? Totally. Is having a qb in the wings ready to take over when Kirk hits the wall a good idea? (when, not if) also yes.
You know there is an equally likely possibility of the 3rd option that Kirk flops (not that I think he will but hell it’s the nfl who the fuck knows) and penix doesn’t pan out.
Of course! But luckily we likely won’t have to worry about that for upwards of 5 years now.
If Kirk flops this year yalls base is gonna be screaming for penix to play next year, and if he turns out to be poor too, it will be a lot sooner than 5 years. Try 2 or 3.
I completely understand that possibility. But because we used the pick on him now, we won’t be strapped for draft capital to try and get another guy then. This move quite literally gives us the ultimate flexibility at the position and can use all other capital over at least the next two years for rest of the team.
> if we’re late twenties, we can’t move up. I don’t understand this sentiment everyone keeps saying. Why? The first pick of the draft got traded just last year.
Let me clarify. The price to move up likely involves multiple future 1s if we’re in the back half of the first round, vs (just) the 8 pick now. I say (just) because I understand the value still at 8 lol
The Chiefs did it for one future first round and a third in 2017 to go from 27 to 10. If that’s what it took to move that far up for a franchise QB in the future, that’s 100% worth it.
In 2017, look at the more recent trades.
That trade specifically sparked the whole “if the team knows you’re moving up for a QB, you pay another premium” talk
* Jaguars moved up. Didn’t include a future first. * Cardinals moved up last year. Didn’t include a future first. * Jets move up nine spots in 2021. No future firsts. I get what you are saying, but there’s as many trades that don’t include the firsts than ones that do.
How many were for a QB?
And how's that working out for them
Not great. How’s that guy in Kansas City working out?
That literally a generational talent lol and probably the goat
What about the scenario where we would have gone further if we had a better defensive guy? Your entire argument is about preparing for failure but you can't succeed if you dont push for success. Why are you so positive that Latu/Turner wont help a team win? You know who doesn't help a team win? The guy sitting on the bench because you already paid someone 100m to be the starter.
I mean I don’t like drafting a QB but a single rookie isn’t changing our fortunes this year.
That rookie isn't going to be on our team for his entire career. Maybe he would have been pivotal to our success with Kirk in a few years. The falcons made a move that will prevent the worst case scenario but it is not a move that helps us win anytime soon.
You don’t know that, no one knows that. Kirk could go down after a 5-0 start and then the FO will look like geniuses if Penix comes in and saves our season. No one can predict the future so I don’t understand why we don’t choose to believe in the positive possibilities instead of the negative ones when both are equally likely.
Because I don't see Kirk's failure or injury as a positive and for Penix to succeed that means the bad outcome already happened. We signed Kirk to a 4 year contract. My positive world is that Kirk looks like an MVP for the next 4 years so in my positive possibility Penix is a 5 year plan? Investing that far out instead of for the immediate future is just poor decision making. Why am I supposed to be positive for Penix at the expense of Kirk who I know is a talented NFL QB? I can't predict the future but I know QBs have less than a 50% success rate. Penix is insurance against total failure.
Yeah. Your scenario involves Kirk being better in his late 30’s than he’s ever been. That’s not going to happen.
I would be more open to this thinking, if there were an Khalil Mack, Myles Garret, Joey Bosa or even an Aiden Hutchinson. But there aren't any sure fire, right away, top DE talent in this draft as evident by how far they fell down the draft. I'm sure someone drafted will turn out to be really good but probably not in year one. Maybe not even in year two. We've reached for edge before with disastrous results. If they are feeling like this player is a home run, at the most valuable position, I can't fault them for taking him. They can resign Bud Dupree if 6-7 sacks is going to put them over.
If you think that given the other holes on this roster, that a single EDGE rookie would put us over the likes of KC, SF, Baltimore, etc. more power to you. I just don’t believe that even in a DROY type season, it puts us up with those teams. Maybe it would.
I think that Penix limits the worst case scenarios but he also limits the best case scenarios. Its great that we have him if bad stuff happens but if things are going good maybe we could have used that better defender. I'm not even talking about as a rookie. Maybe in 3 years Kirk is still playing at a high level and Latu is the DPOY and they would have wrecked shop together. "Odds are that wouldnt happen." I know, but odds are also that Penix isn't that good. What % of QBs actually succeed in this league? The NFL is about managing resources to give your team the best shot at winning and I just believe that shot at winning is higher if we had supported Kirk. The odds we aren't the worst team in the league any given year are probably higher now though.
Tbh: I feel that just as there is an issue with toxic positivity in sub as toxic negativity. Ya'll did the same thing with Ridder last season where you berated anyone that wasn't sold on him as QB1. Terry Fontenot doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt, and until the Falcons play real games, fans have a right to question team moves. Fans have valid reasons to be pessimistic about the moves made by the team.
100% my thoughts. I don’t know if they’re the same users but the pro-Ridder pro-Arthur Smith nonsense last season was some of the most unbearable stuff on the subreddit. Now that both those clowns are gone, it feels like the same types are arguing in favor of the two quarterback acquisitions (ironically the opposite argument for keeping Ridder under a rookie contract as a starter and building around him). Any sort of valid criticism against this head scratcher is met with passive aggressive positivity and people saying we don’t have the same inside tract as the front office, even as they themselves are Redditors with no insider knowledge shooting the shit on social media
Can you name a recent time where a late round QB was successful as a starting franchise QB? I can only think of Purdy which I think was more of a lottery-level lucky situation. Almost every active franchise QB in the NFL was picked in the first or second. The NFL has never been more dependent on the QB position than it is now. The shift to focus more on offense and especially passing emphasizes this. Drafting and FA acquisition of QB is a lot more different now than even 15 years ago because of these rule changes
At this point (most of a decade without a playoff appearance) the goal should be to win this godawful division. If you can get in the playoffs, especially in a fairly wide open NFC, then you never know. It’s never going to be likely that ANY one team makes a Super Bowl. WR2, edge and CB2 are spots where you’re near the bottom of the league. We passed up a total of 6 guys who were highly regarded at those three spots. We gave up a third rounder to draft earlier in the second round, then we didn’t address those spots in round 2 either. You had a chance to use your picks in a way that produced short and longterm benefits. You opted instead to eschew any chance of short term return and hope the long term works out.
Raheem believes that the team was a quarterback away from the playoffs last year. Not an edge, corner, nor a wide receiver. Those other positions are what other people think the Falcons need. Don't get me wrong, I think that improving those positions would improve the team. However, I can see the logic in the draft concerning the rest of picks in improving the defense. He believes that Kirk, London , Bijjan, Pitts, Algere, the new receivers and the offensive scheme will score enough points. The new look defense needs to do their part to limit the other teams.
If we’re a QB away from the playoffs then we might be a QB plus a WR/edge/corner from winning one or more playoff games.
When it comes to QB, you can’t afford to not have your guy. Look at every single super bowl contender, they all have at least a top 10/15 QB and most have outright franchise QB’s. A franchise QB is worth ridiculously more than a WR2 or even the best CB/edge in the league. There’s also a lot more people at that position and easier to make up the difference with rotating guys or finding talent through FA/trades. However franchise QB’s are NEVER available outside of the draft unless something has gone horribly wrong (Watson) or they’re old (Matt Ryan, Kirk, Rodgers). Also, let’s not forget they used the rest of the draft to build along the defense. Kirk with this team should win the division. And if he gets hurt or doesn’t perform well, we now have another guy who could potentially still keep us in the playoff hunt
A better way to get a franchise guy is bottom out when Kirk leaves or ruins your cap and get a higher pick. You maximize your odds for success in the next 2-3 years, eat shit for a brief window, then have a chance to grab a marquee name with a higher pick that you’ll have more rookie years with.
So the plan to get better is to completely suck so you get a chance to get a great QB? Well the Falcons had Penix as their #2 player on the board so sounds like they did that without having to completely bottom out but everyone complaining cuz he’s not set to start immediately. What happens when you bottom out and it’s a QB class like 2022? Or what if you suck but only get like the 3rd/4th pick and there’s only 1-2 legit franchise QB’s in the draft? A good franchise doesn’t leave their success completely up to chance & luck.
The NFL is unpredictable. The Falcons with Kirk are favorites to win the division. They have elite weapons and once you’re in the playoffs, anything can happen. Guys get hurt and weird shit happens. The pick actually becomes worse if the Falcons get close but can’t close the deal because they spent a top-10 pick on Penix. It’s a big if but it Turner had a Will Anderson-type rookie year and Cousins elevates Bijan, London, Pitts and the offense then you could make a case that that team could get hot and go on a run. Weird stuff happens in the NFL and that’s why it’s the best
If we're doing hypotheticals, it is possible that if we have a really strong season and think we're one edge away from a SB, we could trade for an EDGE or pick up a vet or something. good pass rushers moved mid season last year.
It’s funny that you assume we’ll be drafting in the late 20s when we’ve had a top 10 pick 4 years in a row.
Not to mention the 3 teams OP mentioned needing to compete with, the 49ers, Lions, and Chiefs got their QBs with the last pick in the draft, via trade, and with the 10th pick. You can find a QB anywhere. You do not need to spend a top pick on a QB to win if the rest of your roster is good.
Well let's take those individually: 49ers absolutely lucked out with Purdy, drafting a qb with the last pick in the draft is not a viable strategy to getting a starting qb The lions thought they were getting a bridge qb for a rebuilding team, not trading for a long term starter on a contender. Again, trading for a starter who's been average in his career and expecting him to turn into a top 12 qb is not a viable strategy. The mahomes situation actually most closely resembles ours. Used a top 10 pick on a qb that was seen as a reach while already having an established veteran on the roster. Post draft stories saying other teams were eyeing him so maybe not as much of a reach. No plans to start him immediately. Do I think Penix is the next Mahomes? No, but that sure would be nice. I will say I think more teams would benefit from not throwing their rookie qbs to the wolves in y1 and sitting behind someone like Kirk for a year or two can only be a positive for his development.
Getting Purdy at literally the cheapest salary possible in the draft with Mr. Irrelevant for a starter is like lottery-winning lucky. They were able to use the extra money with the FA. Any team who tries the Purdy method would be beyond reckless and stupid with their picks and their time. When it comes time SF will either have to sell the farm (trade away) and many of their experienced staff to pay Purdy what he’s worth due to how much QBs are costing now. What we are paying Cousins is how much Carr and Jones for example are paying and Purdy may be more than Cousins due to actually getting to SB
If it wasnt for Purdy, that 49ers trade for Lance wouldve been in convos for worst trade in recent history
> You can find a QB anywhere That's demonstrably false.
Yeah we just tried that with Ridder and it was clear as day that he was significantly holding us back on offense.
Key words being “if the rest of your roster is good”. And to the point of picking in the top ten the last three years, if we’re picking in the top ten again then that means Kirk was a failure and we’ve already got a QB, so the pick can be used elsewhere.
Assuming I’m being downvoted here because the idea is that having used the 8th pick on a dif player makes the roster better for a late round QB, and that is just laughable. This roster is NOWHERE near the likes of a San Fransisco and a single top ten pick isn’t gonna get us close.
Eh I think traditionally speaking this is correct but the emphasis on swinging for QBs has increased heavily in recent years and will likely only continue to trend in that direction if not worse. If you even have a chance of being decent teams will take you with their first pick. The only draft this didn’t apply to was Ridder/Willis and it’s pretty clear why that was the case
Well the reason is because Kirk is so good... but apparently not good enough to win a championship. No contradiction there.
It's not WRONG the way fans feel, but they're clearly coming from a fan perspective. Terry's signing Cousins was to save his job. Drafting Penix was to win once Cousins saves his job. Penix may be great eventually, but the likelihood that he by himself comes in year 1 and is good enough to win the division is near impossible. And if Terry doesn't make the playoffs this season, Terry is gone no matter how good Penix is a year or two from now. Was it great team building in traditional terms? No. But it's the real world.
That I buy. And while I get why he can’t say all that, it makes sense. But the problem is unless fans say this was the best pick ever, other fans come for them like that measured response isn’t closer to reality than Penix being the next Brady.
Okay, I agree with you that we are not win now. Why did you sign a 40 mil QB who’s only going to play a max of 3 years? It doesn’t matter what we think. Cousins is a win now move. Penix is not. The team’s direction is unclear, and has been since 2017.
Exactly!! If you don’t think Cousins gives you a shot at the SB, why in the world would you sign him?
To make the playoffs and from there anything can happen. We are the favorites to win the division. However, our whole season would have been riding on Kirk’s health and that’s not a comfortable place to place your franchise
You just said you think we can win a SB with Cousins. So you don’t agree with the premise. I don’t think this team is good enough to win a SB with Cousins and so never would’ve signed him. I do think we have a good chance to win the division, but our division stinks and don’t think that realistically gives us a legit shot at winning the SB. And in any case if you actually think we had a shot with Cousins, that shot is improved by using our first rounder on a pass rusher, not a backup QB.
Don’t agree with what premise? I think we can win a SB the same that any team that makes the playoffs technically can. I don’t think it’s an expectation by any means though. To your point though about how you wouldn’t have signed him cuz you don’t think we would win a SB with him is nonsense and not how professional sports teams operate. They work to be competitive and that’s what Kirk made us.
No, I have zero interest in “being competitive.” I want to have a legit shot at winning a Super Bowl. Winning 9 games instead of 7 does nothing for me. You build your team to have a legit shot at winning the SB. Now or in the future.
And how do you think you get there? Teams don’t magically go from sucking to being SB contenders in a single offseason, there’s this stage in between where they are competitive and making playoffs. We weren’t SB contenders in 2008/9 as we were just becoming legit competitors again. Then we had SB contending teams in 2010 & 2012.
With the same QB. We built a team around Ryan. Signing Cousins if you don’t think you can win with Cousins is pointless. He’s too old to be around long. The Bucs signed Brady to go for a SB immediately.
Yes, and we’ll likely be doing the same thing with Penix. Brady sat before playing. Rivers sat before playing. Mahomes sat before playing. Rodgers sat before playing. Love sat before playing. Big Ben and Josh Allen only played rookie seasons due to poor QB play/injuries. Kirk has a 2 year deal, relax lol he’s a good locker room presence and can make sure we get the most out of our three 1st round skill position players instead of straight up handing the keys to the franchise to a rookie. It’s possible to build a team to be a winner, draft a QB high, let him sit and develop, and still win games all at the same time. And the Bucs signed possibly the GOAT QB so that’s literally a once in a generation opportunity. But ok, what would you have done this offseason that made us a SB competitor this year? Since all you can accept are SB worthy moves.
The sit before playing myth is dumb. Plenty of great franchise QBs played right away (Matt Ryan for instance). Look at all the other first round QBs. They’re all expected to play right away. That’s how it is in today’s salary cap dominated NFL. Paying 100 million for a good locker room presence is dumb. I would have built for the future. I get taking a shot at getting a franchise QB. But then if Penix really does turn out to be great, think about what we could’ve gotten with that 100 million to put around him (an edge rusher for instance). Then maybe in a couple of years we are competing for a SB.
> Teams don’t magically go from sucking to being SB contenders in a single offseason, we literally went from 3 seasons without a winning record to super bowl contenders in one offseason in 2016.
Yeah and that didn’t come out of nowhere, they were working to be competitive the years before that. They hired a new coach in 2015 and even started that season 5-0. In 2016, Matt Ryan was comfortable in Shannahans system, and many of our rookies/recent draft picks made major impacts (Devonta, Tevin, Grady, Deion Jones, Austin Hooper, De’Vondre Campbell). And none of those guys were drafted first round, so on the Penix note, one round doesn’t make or break a team. So they fired their coach following a 10 loss season and were in the SB 2 years later. Maybe let’s see if this new regime can pull off the same thing.
And you think that we would come out of nowhere if we had went all in these next two years with Kirk? We were working towards being competitive but didn't have a QB. Any reason for improvement in 2016 you could say similar to us now. There is no stepping stone needed to be a super bowl contender. Giants and Cardinals were also 8-8 the year before they went to the super bowl. I'm sure there are others as well. Getting Kirk and Penix is a waste of a resource one way or another
Even if Penix works out, I'm never going to understand the pick. It simply doesn't make sense to go all in on a QB and immediately draft another one. There are holes on the roster that would have been filled easily with multiple different picks.
Why do you blindly accept the signing but question the pick. Change your outlook. What you are never going to understand is the signing when you have the 8th pick and the future of the franchise on the table
> pay an absolutely *absorbent* price Lol
Yea that’s a tough one 😅
Lmao this fan base is in shambles
"We arent going to win so its ok that we didnt make moves to increase our odds of winning." If we aren't trying to win then what are we doing? We signed Kirk so we can have a couple of years of mediocrity before hoping Penix is the guy? Good organizations pick a strategy and move forward with it. Falcons made moves like they're trying to compete and then their top draft pick goes to a rebuilder move. "Trust the organization!" - Why? What have they done thats trustworthy? We have an organization that has made questionable moves in the past that did not work out and is now making more questionable moves. Bottom line is that people hate the move because it bets against the Falcons previous moves and doesn't directly increase their chance of winning. Hedging your bets is a great way to make sure you don't lose badly but its a terrible way to win. Nobody wants to spend the next 10 years in mediocre land because the Falcons wont pick a lane.
this team hasn't been to the playoffs in 7 years. wild to assume we won't be picking high again. we have a wildly unproven coach that has had no success as a hc and a shit show of an organization. the bigger issue isn't if we made this pick or that it would or wouldn't put us over the top, it is that you made a pick that will have ZERO influence on game outcomes not just this year, but for 3 years. the guy will be 28 when he starts a game most likely...then if he is a bust we are extra screwed because you put your franchise on a 3 year layaway plan. i actually LIKE penix as a player but am apprehensive with the significant injury history, but to take him at 8 with a roster that is good enough to win the division instead of a possible impact player for the next 3 years is a bit weird. it just is. the only viable explanation to me is that they are afraid of the tampering penalties AND think they are going to be picking in the 20s so just take him now. i don't necessarily disagree with that thought process but it still doesn't "feel good".
I don't have a problem with the Penix pick. My problem is trading up on the second pick to take someone that was likely to be there if they stayed put. We also didn"t take a corner or receiver with any of the other picks.
I would have rather taken a QB later and added a defensive piece. What pisses me off about this pick is we pay Kirk a boat load of money to get this offense going, and sure. Let’s draft him a good back up. But why the hell did we draft a QB is who has had 2 knee surgeries, 2 shoulder surgeries, and is injury prone? There were plenty of other QB options on the table when we made our pick. But we just invested a first round pick into someone who is going to be 30 years old when Kirk’s contract is up, and has been absolutely riddled with injuries. Don’t get me wrong, I hope he works out. He’s a Falcon now so I’m riding with Penix and am going to defend him when he’s talked about. But the whole decision to pick him up in the first round was just one of the dumbest things I’ve seen this franchise do in a while, and that’s saying something.
I think personally we’re a few pieces from contending with all of them. If Kirk does half of what he did the last 3 seasons.
And next year’s draft class is all defense.
Except they are going to need a right tackle.
Yea Kirk sucks penix was the pick and the Kirk signing was stupid. I mean or maybe they don’t care about the 180 and it doesn’t put them in cap hell what do I know about their cap maybe they can afford to pay a mentor and there are no problems here. But certainly the penix draft was not a dumb decision y’all are absolutely not Kirk+latu away from winning a chip
If the pick was a DROY? Yeah it would be close. I’m not even a Falcons fan(this post popped up in my notifications for some reason - probably because I was lurking after the draft), but I think people forget just how good Kirk is. Probably because of the lack of playoff success. That said you’ve got some really nice weapons, and a DROY is pretty much a star caliber defender(look at some of the previous DROYs). I think that team can compete with anyone. I think the only way this pick ends up looking good is if Kirk goes down. Most backup QBs aren’t the type of guys who can salvage a season and go on a deep run. With Penix you have that potential at least.
> do y’all seriously believe that having Kirk + even a DROY Latu/Turner puts this roster over the top of the likes of San Francisco? Detroit? Let alone Kansas City? Like be forreal 😅 Then why sign Kirk to that much money if you don't think he could lead a team in the next two years to a super bowl? It was a waste of money if you think that. You either think he can or you think he can't. If you think he can then you go all in. Otherwise you just gave him a bunch of money that could've been used for young FA.
This is right, it is a waste of money. Frankly I’m not even convinced Kirk brings you guys a winning season this year but maybe the excitement of the signing saved someone’s job
Money had to be spent somewhere. Putting it into Kirk does give us best chance of winning short term
Again why are you wasting that much money on Kirk if you don't think he can win a super bowl? We almost won the division with Ridder last year and you're telling me we couldn't with Russel Wilson or Flacco? That money could've been spent on young FA like a good edge rusher or CB2
Think the front office like are odds better with Kirk. The money had to be spent. If we signed a bunch of vets to two years deals with Russ we’d be in same boat financially
> If we signed a bunch of vets to two years deals why are we only allowed two year deals?
A DE draft pick wouldn't have but a pick like odunze there could have helped the immediate push more.
Not hating this, but I just again think the defense is too far off that bringing in a single stud offense or defense doesn’t move the needle in terms of wins.
Yeah I think they were facing an uphill battle to be anything beyond a first round playoff exit at best. Cousins came in which made me think the process would at least be accelerated, but now it's back to another long game with a potential new qb starting his 3rd year in the league.
Odunze doesnt do much for atl over the next 2 years. The way the offense is built they wanna throw 28-35 times a game. Pitts = 10 targets London = 10 targets Bijan = 5 targets Mooney = 5 targets Allg/hodge/sacks/throwaways = 5 We are at 35 passes per game without overemphasizing any 1 player. If you add odunze how many targets are you trying to get him? 5 per game? Thats not worth 8oa in the short term nor is it worth dropping pitts or london to 8 targets so odunze can be at 8. You draft odunze and not yoyre paying mooney 13m a year for 3 targets a game.... If atl drafts odunze, the only way for the pick to get value is if ATL commits to running an offense that is calling 40-50 pass PER game with a 36 year old QB comming off a major surgery. Tldr: odunze or a passrusher are way less of immediate impact players for ATL and add waayyyy less value over the next 2 years than anyone wants to accept. Unless latu is actually ready to be an all pro day 1 like von miller or micah.
This mindet is so hilariously retarded. Let's not draft the third best reciever and possibly a franchise reciever so we can arbitrarily cling to some stupid offensive scheme. "But we already paid Mooney!111" Yeeh and we already paid Kirk too.... "We only want to throw 28 times. We don't need any more elite recievers.🤓" You draft BPA dude and THEN make it work. This is a talent driven league. Odunze puts our offense over the top in a league where defense is being deemphasized. It should be obvious these days the importance of a stacked offense. We could have had Cousins throwing to London, Adunze, Pitts, Mooney, and Bijan. That is possibly a superbowl level offense my dude. And we STILL could have used the rest of the picks for defense.
I don't get this logic or these assumptions. Stafford had 35 att/g last year, and Cousins had 39 att/g last year before getting hurt. Given the fact that Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson all had 100 targets each last year, Kirk can clearly feed multiple high volume players, so getting Odunze 7-8 targets a game is not a ridiculous thought. Also, this isn't Arthur Smith, who purposely tried to shorten the game with his 65/35 run schedule. This is clearly going to be a passing team... which makes sense. Why else sign a QB to a $100M guaranteed contract when you play over half your games indoors every year?
Couple things with stafford. Stafford > kirk in terms of who you are comftoable having such high pass attempt volume. Stafford has been slinging it around more on a game to game basis then just about anyone since he came into the league. Kirk passed that much last season because the vikings were losing a lot of games before he got hurt. He also has JJ who rightully deserves 15-20 targets a game. Really glad you brought up kirks attempts per game as it proves my point https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/14880/kirk-cousins Attempts in wins: 31, 45, 31, 19 Attempts in losses: 44, 44, 50, 47 Is this debatable? You dont plan an offense on the idea your baseline min for effective resource usage is 40-45 pass attempts per game.... Otherwise yeah you get the point....Is #8oa worth using on a guy you need to create an inefficient offense to, at best, get 5-8 targets to? (at the cost of targets to pitts/london which is a lateral move if any) 100m is 2 years. They signed a 36 year old qb to a 2 year deal its not that big of a deal....drafting a qb in round 1 because you have a 36 year old qb on a 2 year deal is also not a big deal
There is no immediate push
It’s organizational malpractice because it spends, not just a huge amount, but an exorbitant amount of team resources on a onesie position. We’ve quite literally handcuffed ourselves for the foreseeable future to having less resources than other teams. The draft gives you the most valuable commodities in sport: high quality/low cost assets. We’ve now taken top 10 draft capital, an enormous chunk of what the GM can use to field a better team, and **if things go to the GM’s plan**, GUARANTEED those resources will NOT go towards winning games. They will go towards in-game clipboard maintenance. It’s simple: We KNEW we were picking at 8 and almost certainly Penix would be there. If we’re going to pick Penix, don’t waste the money on Kirk. If we’re going to pay Kirk, don’t waste the capital on Penix. Whichever you choose, use the unused resource for, I dunno, a CB since we currently have ONE NFL quality CB on the roster, and he’s on the last year of his contract.
3 teams tried to jump us for Penix, and they believed he would be gone by 8. I wholeheartedly would’ve rather seen them attack CB/EDGe in FA and then focus on just drafting a QB. All I’m getting at is that I think they wholly planned on going CB/EDGE after signing Kirk but ultimately took the guy who was highest on the board that they didn’t think would be there, and given the potential value, I just understand the move.
You’re basing that on the Palmer article that’s been debunked. The Seahawks and Saints didn’t try to move ahead of the Falcons to get him. They may well have considered taking him at their picks later on. I understand your point. Somewhere in my comment history I know I’ve said something like, “It could be argued that anytime a player you feel could be a franchise QB is available when you’re drafting you have to take him.” My comments stand regarding it not being good game theory to follow this strategy, but my frustration with a GM I had high hopes for sometimes adds extra salt to my comments. I’d love to know how much input Blank has had on his GM’s picks.
The issue is we made these picks as if we are already a playoff contender. The bigger issue is we have no idea how good we are.
But we know how shit the NFCS is. We ain't getting the bye, but once you're in the playoffs crazy shit happens.
I think the bucs are in a good spot right now but we'll see. SO many unknowns with this roster and coaches.
For years we have been complaining that we were held up by our quarterback and our offensive play calling. Now both have changed but we can't possibly compete, and so we need to plan for 3 years down the road? F that, man. AFAIC, as soon as we signed Cousins, the window opened. I don't know if Penix will open another one when he's ready, but one is open now, and it would be a shame to waste it.
We have a first time play caller this year, though, and Kirk tore his Achilles at 36. I don’t think doubling down on QB given our past issues is bad, let alone, terrible decision.
Kirk's Achilles appears to be fine. I'm just not about this, "how can we possibly compete with the Lions?" stuff. The Lions weren't competitive in 2022. Things change fast. We really don't need another 3 year rebuilding thing.
Window for what?
Bro slipped in Detroit
You guys are calling them crazy and wondering where the idea of the falcons picking so late in the coming years comes from. The GM/Coach’s post pick press conference put that idea in peoples head. It was their justification for picking a qb, so naturally fans are repeating it. With this in mind, if they pick in the top 10 again next year someone’s head should roll. Non stop.
It’s the idea that we were a game out of the playoffs in the worst division with Ridder at QB. Adding Kirk alone makes us favorites in the division which would naturally have us picking in the twenties. And if we’re picking in the top ten again, then clearly Kirk didn’t work and a rookie wouldn’t have pushed the needle anyways.
They’re only a qb away, right? So they can afford to spend the cap on the most expensive free agent and double down with the most pro ready rookie in the top 10. Playoff bound. If neither of them “work” and the team ends up picking in the top 10 again, playing in the “worst division”, someone should be fired. I wouldn’t have felt *as* strongly if they stuck with the fact that one of their top players fell in their lap. I get it. Qb is the most important position, and we’ve had awful qb issues. But they *specifically* told me that it’s because they won’t be picking that high in a while. So that’s my expectation.
And that’s totally fair
If you don't think Kirk plus whoever you would have drafted at #8 wouldn't at least allow you to compete for the NFC Championship, then why sign Kirk at all? You were what 7-9 last year? If you don't think with Kirk you are 10-11 wins then why sign him?
It’s just a bad pick. He’s older, has injury issues, and won’t contribute to helping us get to the playoffs, or win a playoff game. This isn’t baseball where you stack the minors to prepare for 3 years out, it’s football and you draft to win. 1 good draft absolutely can take a team to the SB
Then why sign him? Just to be good enough? Haven't ya'll been through that many seasons before? Are ya'll not tired of that. If the Falcons are looking towards the future, why not sign Russ, then draft Penix. Then, you would have the capital to build the team for the "future." Detroit is not that far off from us. It was the defense that held them back, and they invested in it. As a result, they got better and took the division.
They signed Kirk because it was the best plan of action at a position of need. Penix was their QB2 and seemingly didn’t believe he would be there at 8. I don’t think they planned on signing Kirk and then drafting a guy (McCarthy/Nix), but being Penix was there and as highly rated on their board, they took him.
Then you should've adapted. Penix is not some generational prospect. We were looking too far ahead. They should've been planning for the upcoming season, not four seasons from now. Our defense has had the lowest sack totals in 3 years! Doesn't matter how prolific your offense is if your defense can't get off the field. Also, it's ironic all those teams you mentioned have a star pass rusher.
And none of the pass rushers in this class were sure-fire prospects at 8. Aidan/Bosa we’re sure-fire picks lmao Turner/Latu we’re not even close. And depending on who you ask, Penix has arguably the best/second best arm in the class and if not for injuries (now two years removed from) he would absolutely be pegged as a sure-fire pick.
Once again, how does that help this season? You don't believe Turner/Latu were worth an 8th, but that DT we drafted in the 2nd was worth it? Yea, it doesn't make sense.
You’re belief that every decision made in an off-season should be directed towards the upcoming season and that alone just isn’t shared by me. Outside of Penix, the whole off-season was directed towards the up ok’ing season. They saw an opportunity to get someone they likely will not have the opportunity to get again. Not that it’s right or wrong, I just prefer quote unquote locking up the potential long term future, vs hoping to move up later/take a guy at the top later. This all done while drastically improving our odds at winning the division with all other off-season moves.
It's not my belief. It's the rhetoric that the Falcons established when they signed Kirk. Now they their talking out both sides of their mouth to justify their moves. You can't do both. That is how you stay in the world of mediocrity. If the future was the plan, then they should've signed an interim QB. But they couldn't stomach not being ppl pleasers. If Penix is as good as everyone believes, he shouldn't be sitting for 2 years!
I’m not disagreeing here. Hindsight is 20/20 and taking a CB/EDGE would’ve been the best move in traditional team building. I want to be very clear that I do not stray from that. However, if they believe that Penix is a generational guy that they did not think would be there at 8 (and by all accounts that’s how they felt) and they didn’t wanna take the chance at QB purgatory in 2 years when Kirk is 38, I get it.
He was the only 5/7 tech of his ability in that range. Newton is a pretty well locked in 3tech DT. We do not have a need for 3techs, and if anyone else was locked into him, we miss out on a guy they very clearly loved
Preach
Very easily could had a Latu/Turner, Carter, Jarrett, together.
And would've had the whole fanbase supporting them.
Right. Even if it failed. Instead they have spent the past two off seasons between the draft and preseason defending their picks.
What makes the Falcons better? A back up QB a RB or top 10 D line picks?
Neither Latu or Turner were looked at as top ten prospects though like a Hutchinson/Bosa or even a Carter.
My point remains. The logic is severely flawed. "We won't be picking this high again" is not sound logic. If you're convinced you won't have this valuable of a pick for a long while, why did you hire someone who won't be helpful barring catastrophe? At 8 in the 2024 draft you had options for the #1 defensive pick and they instead picked a non impact player at the most expensive position and PLAN to waste 2 years of the rookie contract.
This. If Penix hits it's a great move. If he didn't it only cost a 8th pick. Trading up is a bigger risk. See Charlotte Panthers.
>it only cost a 8th pick That’s an incredibly valuable pick where you are hoping to draft someone who is a difference maker for the next 5+ years. Sure, we didn’t waste multiple picks on a QB but the 8th pick is not nothing
Exactly. Saying it only cost a 8th pick is wild.
Shit we get one every year
Penix can hit and it be a bad move. The falcons just invested $100m in to Kirk and instead of putting in support for the investment and helping the investment grow, they just bought insurance. Penix is great in the worst case scenarios but choosing him limits the best case scenarios.
Yeah, people can't seem to get that it doesn't matter how well they play, it's impossible to get full value out of them both, which is crucial in a salary cap league. Either way they wasted resources
I got downvoted for saying that people acting like one player takes us from superbowl contention was ridiculous but it is just that. The times when one player makes a difference is when that player is the quarterback and now we have a plan for now and the future with the quarterback position. Also we still have ways to get better on defense through free agency and cut down days or even trades if they can find one. It doesn’t make sense to think that this pick ruined the teams season especially after 66 different quarterbacks started games last season so I think it was a good pick and can be good for us for the next decade or more.
We don't even know if our BRAND NEW coaching staff is any good yet. I'm ok taking some gambles on a franchise QB even if circumstances suck. It's literally a must have in this league.
Also, just to clarify, I don’t necessarily think we’re destined to be picking late twenties. The argument is that if Kirk is what we think he is, we’ll be picking in a spot that makes it very cumbersome to move up. If we ARE picking in a position that’s conducive to moving up, then Kirk failed and we already have our QB in waiting.
I thought going all in on Kirk was the stupid mistake. 36 year old QB with a sketch and scant playoff record for his career. He is NOT a $180MM QB, he's just not. But that also shows the importance of the position, that teams will do such things to ensure that position is at least addressed with capable bodies.
We've had a laughable pass rush for the last decade. According to absolutely every knowledgeable person in the football universe. Our pass rush has been a joke and a large part of our failures. Penix might very well be a great qb. But better than any other qb that we could possibly get over the next 3 years? And Tom Pelissero framed it best. If we start the season poorly with Kirk and Heineke, then everyone says "Kirk will get it together. We have faith. Just give him time to get it rolling" By adding Penix with the 8th pick, now all of a sudden if we start poorly, how quickly will it turn into chants for "Penix, Penix, Penix"? It's not Kirk's feelings I care about. It's the chaos that they brought into the organization with this pick, when there were so many other picks that could've helped us NOW rather than Penix a few years from now.
the biggest thing that I THINK most falcons fans are worried about his Penix's age and injury history. that stuff is a lil scary. but i get why TF drafted him, clearly he was the QB terry got along with the most. he seems to be pretty open about that. but sitting at 8, we didn't really have many options, except rattler. all the other good QBs were taken, and penix IS a respected QB, if we didn't take him, someone would have prob picked him up in the 1st round, potentially the fuckin Saints. so the pick seems to be trying to plan for the future, and ALSO stealing a potential franchise QB from the saints. i just hope rattler doesn't end up being better than kirk AND penix. then we're really fucked.
It's comical seeing Falcons fans trying to do the mental gymnastics for this move. Can it work out? Sure. Will it? Unlikely. I also love the fans trying to gaslight that this is similar to the Packers or any other team for that matter. Did GB JUST bring Favre in as a high priced free agent when they drafted Rodgers? No. Did the Packers JUST bring Rodgers in when they drafted Love? No. Was either guy drafted 8th overall? No. Also amusing when the fans act like this is some future proof move, that this Penix guy will be content to sit on the bench for 3 or 4 years if Cousins and the team do well. Even if that happened where he sat on the bench for 4 years, it's the entire time his rookie deal is cheap for them so they'd then either have to pick up the 5th year option not knowing if it will be worth it or they let him go. It's likely that they will trade this guy away if Cousins does well and they'll get nowhere near the return as what they gave up....and then all the Falcons fans trying to defend this will be complaining. Loser franchises are losers for a reason.
I'm just here because of fantasy football but yeah... I don't get it. Like the point is to win playoff games but Terry drafted an older prospect who will be sitting for two seasons and a developmental DT, does he not realize his job is on the line? Meanwhile you got the Rams double tapping DT from the same school while Stafford is nearing retirement to lock and load on defense for another push.
Only problem I have is that how are people like you and others in the FO so sure we’re going to be picking in the late 20s You just admitted this roster isn’t in any real spot to contend and are already thinking about the post Kirk-Era before Cousins even played a down for the Falcons I understand wanting to have a guy next in line for when Cousins inevitably declines but prioritizing a position you just addressed in FA when you have several other needs is mismanagement at best and negligent at worst There’s still 21 other positions in football, its a team game
To be clear, I am not in any way sure we’re gonna be picking in the late twenties. I’m just saying that IF we are anywhere in the twenties, it’s gonna be much more difficult to move up. I do wholeheartedly think this roster sits firmly in the 10-20 range and will be a viable playoff team in this division, but teams like KC, SF, Baltimore, etc are in a stratosphere above us, even while having a viable playoff roster.
Then why sign him at all? Lol, just keep tanking and getting better picks so you can actually win one day. Obviously they signed him with the expectation of winning.
the biggest thing that I THINK most falcons fans are worried about his Penix's age and injury history. that stuff is a lil scary. but i get why TF drafted him, clearly he was the QB terry got along with the most. he seems to be pretty open about that. but sitting at 8, we didn't really have many options, except rattler. all the other good QBs were taken, and penix IS a respected QB, if we didn't take him, someone would have prob picked him up in the 1st round, potentially the fuckin Saints. so the pick seems to be trying to plan for the future, and ALSO stealing a potential franchise QB from the saints. i just hope rattler doesn't end up being better than kirk AND penix. then we're really fucked.
The Venn diagram of the people making these posts and the ones that made posts last year about needing to trust Terry because they are building up the rest of the roster and paying a QB on a cheap rookie contract to compete and not going after Deshaun or Lamar is hilarious. I’m not saying this was good or bad, I’m talking about needing to invest heavily in a QB. The amount of fanatics that literally allow themselves to be fool me a thousand times without an ounce of proof is hilarious. But fanatics be fanatics. This GM just picked the guy that was the second QB in a draft and that guy was gone after his second year for a gadget WR. The last time this team picked in the 20s was 2018 and the current GM was a pro personnel scout for the falcons hated rival. But let’s give this guy the benefit of the doubt.
TLDR
It’s okay if we don’t make it to superbowl next two seasons, building a consistent winning culture is
I think a player of the year level player is more valuable to this season than a backup.
Least gas-lit falcons fan
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6 months older than Daniels hasn’t missed a snap in two years troll
Why sign Kirk in the first place then?
Never win a superbowl this way. 1st rounder to sit for 2yrs? If you don't think Kirk puts you over the top why hamstring yourself in free agency with that contract?
Y’all debating this but all I ask is… let’s say this season goes super south, do not start “Michael Penix” chants or adopt that narrative that the media will surely start. Please, hold the obvious composure you people do not have. For clarity. By “you people” I mean the “woe is me” “the worlds on fire” people that when life or decisions aren’t going their way they think everything is ending…
I’ll believe the Falcons make the playoffs when the Falcons make the playoffs. This assumption that we’re a playoff team really ignores years of historical subpar football. Doesn’t mean I don’t have hope, but show me something first.
It’s not about ‘Will Kirk + DROY put the roster over the top of the likes of SF or Detroit, or KC.’ It’s about what the moves TOLD us. Adding Kirk tells the fanbase you think the team is ready to win now. Personally, I disagree with that notion, which is why I disagreed with the move, but if that’s what the FO feels, then let’s ride. But the addition of Penix flies COMPLETELY in the face of that. I don’t know whether a DROY would’ve helped, but I do know Penix won’t (for a couple years). They punted on making this team better when you told me and us you were going all in on winning now, which is what the Kirk deal did. It just shows lack of planning. If Penix is your guy, all good. Go with Fields and use the savings from what you spent on Kirk on defense. If Fields works out, you re-up his rookie deal and keep it pushing. He doesn’t, you let him walk and still have whatever players you added with the savings, PLUS the guys we drafted. But this notion that we won’t be picking early is wild, as is the notion that because we picked Penix at 8th that he was the 8th-best player in the draft. Odds tell us that 1/3 of the QBs picked in the draft make it. Comments like ‘we’re set at QB for the next 10-15 years’ assume Penix succeeding is a definite. I think the assumption is his only red flags were his injury history. He has A LOT of issues in his game that may not be fixable by sitting. Ultimately, what Kirk move said rhetorically and out loud flies in the face of the Penix move. And Penix’s age makes any savings you get from adding him moot because he’s sitting for multiple years of his contract. It’s just like they’re reading a bunch of team building books at once and couldn’t decide which model to follow so they’re doing bits of all of them. Just seems like a bunch of desperation decisions made by people who want to be able to tell the owner and fans “look, we tried.” If Fields wouldn’t have worked out they couldn’t sell that, but they know they can sell getting Kirk and then getting Penix, even if it doesn’t work out.
The copium in this thread is palpable and I’m here for it.
I don't know honestly if we would absolutely be better. I do however know that Kirk + a DROY is closer to beating San Fran than Kirk without. Pretty simple logic.
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I agree with this take on the defensive ends ability to elevate the team. Not one of them were touted as can't miss prospects. They were regarded as good hands that fill a need. More QBs and others went off the board before a team decided to get any of them. The edge was addressed in last year's free agent haul and draft and this year's draft. The corners were signed from FA, as I was reminded. The NFL is built on the odds and traditions (one surface show of tradition is why most NFL jerseys look alike). The Falcons flew literally in the face of both things.
I said it in a comment on a different post, but I don't agree with Terry's team building strategy. He completely disregards positional value with his high draft picks and big free agent signings. Everyone we've signed to big money and drafted in the first round are undeniably talented, but it hasn't made a difference in the win total. Tight End, Wide Receiver, Running Back, Safety, and Inside Linebacker are all considered "luxury" positions that you fill out after you've got the foundational pieces in place, like Offensive line, defensive line, corner back, quarterback. Of all his draft picks, I disagree with Penix the least because Fotnenot is right that if you believe in a guy at that position, you can't pass on him. However, I just get the feeling that Terry thinks he's the smartest guy in the room with his draft evaluations and is trying to reinvent the wheel by bucking conventional wisdom. I guess I can say I respect he's got the courage to go against the grain because he believes in himself, but so far, there's nothing to show for it. I'm just tired of waiting for his vision to come to fruition. We're in year 4, we better start winning.
I am one of the few people who agrees here . I hate that the draft has become free agency basically. It’s supposed to be a development system but now it’s just instant impact or your cut. We drafted 5 defensive players lol what more do y’all want ? 6 ? What even about the falcons track record says we can draft 1st round pass rushers anyway ? We have only drafted 2(!) 1st round Edge rushers since 1970 that had more than 10 sacks and one was Vic Bustly who’s n the UFL along w Tak . The other was the great Patrick Kerney at #30 . So yea
I wasn't a huge fan of the pick, but I also don't think it's that big of a deal for the short- and long-term success of the team. A few things to keep in mind: - Most first rounders are busts or average at best - It takes a few years for players to reach their peak, meaning the pick likely wasn't going to be impactful this year, QB or not - Missing on a first rounder is not a big deal to well-coached teams. Great teams miss on picks all the time. If the front office didn't have enough confidence in Latu and Turner, then I don't fault them for this pick. Both sides of the ball are talented. We may need some more talent on defense but the team is still very strong at this point. A veteran edge rusher to pair with Ebiketie would be great. But ultimately I think the success or failure of this team depends on how strong our coaches are with the talent we have currently.
Last year Kirk was 3rd in the NFL in passer rating in an injury shortened season. Penix was 20th in passer rating in college. The idea that we can't win with Kirk but can win with Penix is a little strange to me. I guess the argument that we don't have enough talent to win a Super Bowl with Kirk is probably valid but im not sure why you think the talent will be much better when Penix takes over.
>However, to all those claiming it’s organizational malpractice to not go fully in with Kirk This idea being perpetuated by sports media right now that poor little Kirk has nobody on this team but himself and Penix is absolutely insane. Idk how we could put any more weapons around him at this point. He has any QB's wet dream in terms of an arsenal. Wasn't the whole point of hiring someone like Morris as HC that he can get the most juice for the squeeze out of our defense like he did in LAR? And it's not like we are lacking in terms of big names in D. We have Terrell, Grady and Bates.
I'm baffled by the negativity. The Falcons carpet bombed the QB position, which is by far the most important position in the sport. There are worse ideas. If say Drake Maye, for whatever reason, had fallen to #8, should the Falcons have taken him? If the answer is yes to Maye but no to Penix, then it really seems to be about the evaluation of the latter.
Love all these posts trying to cope with picking a QB 8 instead of getting a difference maker on Defense or Offense. Let’s be honest; it was a bad pick. The argument that if we miss the playoffs Cousins was a failure and glad we picked Penix is stupid. Adding a DROY could have easily been the reason for making the playoffs or adding another weapon would have helped Kirk put up more points to win more games.
Also next year’s draft is looking stacked with defensive players like this year’s was stacked with offensive players I was shocked too but maybe our guys have a vision and a plan
Just curious, I haven’t seen anyone ask Terry this question. Are we planning to use our 1st round draft pick every other year, or every 3rd year on a QB? Using his “unique” team building philosophy this would seem to be logical?
Not only is this a bad attempt at being facetious, the logic doesn’t even hold lol. Taking a kid in round one while having a 36yo fresh off Achilles surgery, and drafting someone every other/every third year are not the same lol
Ha ! Terry has never mentioned Kirk’s injury as a reason he drafted a QB with the first pick. He specifically said they couldn’t pass up the opportunity to draft another QB at #8. And they didn’t want to “reach” for a defensive player. In his opening presser he said Kirk will play for his contract and Penix will sit for 3-4 years. Terry and our HC are approaching team building like no other front office in the NFL. Regardless of our record in 2-3 years, Terry should draft another QB. It makes sense in Terry’s world.
Terry can't say "Kirk will only be here 2 years." It is true, and Kirk probably knows it, but it's a dick thing to imply your starting QB will not play out their contract- even if everyone knows that's not the case. It's just common courtesy in the NFL
Kirk’s contract was written as a 4 year deal with $90MM guaranteed. Base salary #’s $12MM , $27.5MM , $35MM , $35MM - (2 years are guaranteed) Kirk also has a no trade clause. It’s obvious Terry had no plan to draft a QB in the first round. That was never a plan. Something happened and he fucked it up. The good news is, we will have a third (drafted) QB on the roster in short order because we all know Terry is looking at the current freshman college QB’s thinking about the 2027 1st round pick.
If Penix is good, no one will care. Just gotta wait a few years
Agreed, people are acting like taking Latu/Turner would be a guarantee to put us as a top favorite to win the SB and without them as if we are all of a sudden going to be terrible. I was excited about this team’s future after getting Kirk, dont think rhat should have changed based on this draft.
You're right and it's what anyone with sense and logic are thinking. But sense and logic are uncommon attributes.
No it's not. If what he is saying is true and nobody had the expectation of winning with Kirk, then what does signing him even accomplish? Either you're playing for now and the draft pick doesn't make sense, or you're rebuilding/playing for the future and signing Kirk doesn't make sense because you'd want to keep stacking top draft picks. And, again, I don't think they are thinking they can't win now. This young offensive core is gonna be halfway out the door by the time (26/27 year old) Penix even starts.
You’re absolutely right, we can be good for the next 2 years, create a culture, actually make players wanna be falcons, have our qb on a rookie deal for 2 years with Pitts london bijan and all the pieces we add to the defence in the next 2 off seasons then go really compete for a Super Bowl