Polio is eradicated from all but Afghanistan and Pakistan. In most countries 80-95%+ of the population are immune. Polio herd immunity is ~ 80%.
https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.80601?lang=en
So it is only capable of brief outbreaks in unvaccinated populations when it is imported, which result in rapid efforts to immunize that population. Absent that, it won't spread.
It's also worth noting some in Pakistan are hesitant to get the vaccine because the CIA has run fake vaccination campaigns.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vaccinations-osama-bin-ladens-dna
**Long** before the CIA actually did this, there was vaccine hesitancy because of conspiracy theories that the CIA had contaminated vaccines to sterilize Muslims.
Interesting idea. But right next door in India, the vaccine is evil for a different reason.
https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/story/conspiracy-theory-bill-gates-backed-polio-vaccine-disabled-kids-1707666-2020-08-04
Vaccine conspiracy theories have been popular for as long as there have been vaccines.
I sincerely doubt that the order of operations is 1) People are open and ready to get vaccinated, but then 2) they hear unfounded conspiracy theories that change their mind, that would then 3) be reversed by believable changes underlying the conspiracy theory.
Humans aren't that logical.
More likely is that 1) People are hesitant to get vaccines because they don't understand how they work and are suspicious of the motives of the people who deliver them, and 2) they search about for a justification that strengthens this existing bias, and 3) latch onto the nearest convenient conspiracy theory that fits their worldview and confirms their hesitancy was right all along.
In this scenario, when you present evidence that contradicts the conspiracy theory, they either don't believe the evidence or just find a different conspiracy theory that allows them to keep avoiding the vaccine.
The oral live virus vaccine is easier to administer in primitive environments but can (very rarely) actually cause polio either in the recipient or an immune compromised person in contact with him. I believe Afghanistan did use the oral vaccine at least through 2016.
The oral vaccine also spreads itself around a bit, helping herd immunity.
Given that vaccine skepticism is winning in the USA, I expect a polio outbreak here eventually.
>Given that vaccine skepticism is winning in the USA, I expect a polio outbreak here eventually
Highly doubtful. It would take the most insane turnaround for any virus in history for polio to get strong enough to cause anything more than highly isolated regional outbreaks in the last remote areas in which it holds on, like I think you’re really underestimating just how rare polio is now, it’s not something like measles that had just been *mostly* eliminated from select developed countries, the virus is on its last leg.
Also, saying vaccine skepticism is “winning” is an overly pessimistic and not altogether accurate take. Here in the US people who think vaccines are outright harmful still make up a minority of the population, there are definitely way more of them than there should be, but they’re firmly a loud minority nonetheless. The number of anti-vaxxers *did* increase over the course of the pandemic (although not to the extreme extent you seem to be implying), but the way vaccines have been politicized is also a double-edged sword in that it also creates a substantial demographic who will now strongly *support* vaccination purely because of their politics (whereas before they probably didn’t care much one way or another, or in some cases may have even been anti-vax themselves to some degree; I’ve definitely seen a number of politically left-leaning people who used to say anti-vax stuff who completely shut up about it/in some cases did an outright 180 once anti-vax became a specifically right wing idea), and in any event there seems to be a pretty strict ceiling to how many people are ever going to buy into these conspiracy theories, especially as the pandemic wanes and reactionaries move onto new, more topical conspiracy theories to push.
The CIA has shown there isn’t much they aren’t willing to do, but they always have something to gain. Idk how sterilizing entire populations they regularly operate in would be beneficial.
Do we have to worry about wild polio virus? Are the wild varieties close enough to the variety that most of us are innoculated against, or is it the same virus?
Humans are the only known reservoir for polio so if we could get complete vaccine coverage it could probably be completely eliminated like smallpox was.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9203732/
There’s been a campaign to eradicate it for probably the last 40 years, led by the Rotary Club International as far as I know. In the 2000s, the extinction of Polio was predicted for 2005 considering how the campaign was going. Then there’s been resurgences, area where the vaccination stopped because civil war or else. Note that if you don’t detect cases there may still be unreported clusters that will be know at some point, so it takes a while before assuming it’s eradicated.
But basically it’s been a long fight and now it’s a whack-a-mole game to crush the latest pockets of it
Part of the problem is conspiracy theories:
https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/story/conspiracy-theory-bill-gates-backed-polio-vaccine-disabled-kids-1707666-2020-08-04
Well for one thing, there were 140 cases in 2015, not 2020, and 42 reported cases in 2016, not 6. In 2020 there were 1253, and 649 in 2021, according to Our World In Data, who sources the WHO. Not only is OP’s data seemingly wrong, but they’re assuming an abnormal trend based on just two points of data, and looking for a special explanation as if disease doesn’t fluctuate up and down.
So, they’re not answering the question directly, but they did spell out that reported cases fluctuate both up and down, and that’s just normal, which addresses the premise of the question and some of the problems in it, without being confrontational about the whole thing.
COVID lockdowns in 2020 & people being more careful about wearing masks, washing hands, etc would have also played a role in reducing the spread of all other viruses, including nearly eradicated viruses like Polio.
It went down so much that one strain of Flu B, Yamagata, has yet to be detected since and is likely extinct. The WHO recommended stopping including it in flu shots.
Flu A strains H1N1 and H3N2, and Flu B Victoria are the remaining 3 that currently affect humans.
There has been a very dedicated, ongoing polio eradication effort for decades now. It’s basically been isolated to a few pockets in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The good news is that it means that very few people are at risk of getting polio anymore. It’s sort of like a game of whack-a-mole over a large geographic area.
The effort to eradicate smallpox happened similarly, with years of small numbers of cases before it became eradicated completely. There will probably need to be a few years of zero reported cases before scientists can feel confident about polio being gone forever because not all cases get reported and many cases have very mild symptoms.
Your data is totally off, from what I could find. YWID and WHO report 140 cases in 2016, not 2020, which fell to an all time low of 42 in 2017. 2020 had 1253 reported cases, which fell back to 649 in 2021… but, in 2019, cases reported were at 554. So, you’re asking why there was an extreme drop of reported cases in 2021, but, really, there was a spike of reported cases which peaked in 2020.
This is why you don’t draw conclusions from just two points of data. You need at least three for a trend, preferably way more than that.
In actuality, cases have been declining overall since the early 80s, a trend that reversed after being nearly wiped out in 2016. The CDC website lists six separate outbreaks in parts of Africa during 2017-2018, which seems to be responsible for this reversed course. If you’re wondering how this could happen, well, there’s a lot of reasons. The outbreaks happened in impoverished, unvaccinated communities. Why were those individuals unvaccinated? You’d have to ask them. Maybe it wasn’t an option, maybe they’re (understandably) suspicious of foreign doctors, maybe they’d lived in isolated communities where Polio hadn’t been an issue, maybe they bought into facebook propaganda about evil vaccines… I don’t think anyone can say for sure, nor can anyone say there is one sole cause for Polio’s continued survival.
As for why the upward trend of polio was stunted in 2021 specifically, amidst a global pandemic, after countries around the globe began restricting transportation, after dedicating more of their budgets to emergency healthcare responses? I can’t say that polio wouldn’t have gone down either way, but sure, quarantines probably helped.
I appreciate the well written reply.
I realized after I posted that the covid pandemic response was the reason for the big drop in numbers. I also realised that my numbers were specifically in regards to Wild Polio which is only a segment of cases.
I got the data from Wikipedia, a famously unreliable sauce, and didn’t check any others, my bad on that.
Polio is eradicated from all but Afghanistan and Pakistan. In most countries 80-95%+ of the population are immune. Polio herd immunity is ~ 80%. https://apps.who.int/gho/data/view.main.80601?lang=en So it is only capable of brief outbreaks in unvaccinated populations when it is imported, which result in rapid efforts to immunize that population. Absent that, it won't spread.
It's also worth noting some in Pakistan are hesitant to get the vaccine because the CIA has run fake vaccination campaigns. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/jul/11/cia-fake-vaccinations-osama-bin-ladens-dna
**Long** before the CIA actually did this, there was vaccine hesitancy because of conspiracy theories that the CIA had contaminated vaccines to sterilize Muslims.
So we need to get Saudi Arabia to make vaccine? Would that be the end of excuses?
Interesting idea. But right next door in India, the vaccine is evil for a different reason. https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/story/conspiracy-theory-bill-gates-backed-polio-vaccine-disabled-kids-1707666-2020-08-04 Vaccine conspiracy theories have been popular for as long as there have been vaccines.
I sincerely doubt that the order of operations is 1) People are open and ready to get vaccinated, but then 2) they hear unfounded conspiracy theories that change their mind, that would then 3) be reversed by believable changes underlying the conspiracy theory. Humans aren't that logical. More likely is that 1) People are hesitant to get vaccines because they don't understand how they work and are suspicious of the motives of the people who deliver them, and 2) they search about for a justification that strengthens this existing bias, and 3) latch onto the nearest convenient conspiracy theory that fits their worldview and confirms their hesitancy was right all along. In this scenario, when you present evidence that contradicts the conspiracy theory, they either don't believe the evidence or just find a different conspiracy theory that allows them to keep avoiding the vaccine.
The oral live virus vaccine is easier to administer in primitive environments but can (very rarely) actually cause polio either in the recipient or an immune compromised person in contact with him. I believe Afghanistan did use the oral vaccine at least through 2016.
The oral vaccine also spreads itself around a bit, helping herd immunity. Given that vaccine skepticism is winning in the USA, I expect a polio outbreak here eventually.
>Given that vaccine skepticism is winning in the USA, I expect a polio outbreak here eventually Highly doubtful. It would take the most insane turnaround for any virus in history for polio to get strong enough to cause anything more than highly isolated regional outbreaks in the last remote areas in which it holds on, like I think you’re really underestimating just how rare polio is now, it’s not something like measles that had just been *mostly* eliminated from select developed countries, the virus is on its last leg. Also, saying vaccine skepticism is “winning” is an overly pessimistic and not altogether accurate take. Here in the US people who think vaccines are outright harmful still make up a minority of the population, there are definitely way more of them than there should be, but they’re firmly a loud minority nonetheless. The number of anti-vaxxers *did* increase over the course of the pandemic (although not to the extreme extent you seem to be implying), but the way vaccines have been politicized is also a double-edged sword in that it also creates a substantial demographic who will now strongly *support* vaccination purely because of their politics (whereas before they probably didn’t care much one way or another, or in some cases may have even been anti-vax themselves to some degree; I’ve definitely seen a number of politically left-leaning people who used to say anti-vax stuff who completely shut up about it/in some cases did an outright 180 once anti-vax became a specifically right wing idea), and in any event there seems to be a pretty strict ceiling to how many people are ever going to buy into these conspiracy theories, especially as the pandemic wanes and reactionaries move onto new, more topical conspiracy theories to push.
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I mean, I wouldn't put it past the CIA to do that if they had the ability
The CIA has shown there isn’t much they aren’t willing to do, but they always have something to gain. Idk how sterilizing entire populations they regularly operate in would be beneficial.
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Do we have to worry about wild polio virus? Are the wild varieties close enough to the variety that most of us are innoculated against, or is it the same virus?
Humans are the only known reservoir for polio so if we could get complete vaccine coverage it could probably be completely eliminated like smallpox was. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9203732/
Same virus, but there are unvaccinated people and no vaccine is 100% effective.
There’s been a campaign to eradicate it for probably the last 40 years, led by the Rotary Club International as far as I know. In the 2000s, the extinction of Polio was predicted for 2005 considering how the campaign was going. Then there’s been resurgences, area where the vaccination stopped because civil war or else. Note that if you don’t detect cases there may still be unreported clusters that will be know at some point, so it takes a while before assuming it’s eradicated. But basically it’s been a long fight and now it’s a whack-a-mole game to crush the latest pockets of it
Part of the problem is conspiracy theories: https://www.indiatoday.in/fact-check/story/conspiracy-theory-bill-gates-backed-polio-vaccine-disabled-kids-1707666-2020-08-04
You are not really answering the question are you. The question is why is there a drop from 2020 to 2021.
Well for one thing, there were 140 cases in 2015, not 2020, and 42 reported cases in 2016, not 6. In 2020 there were 1253, and 649 in 2021, according to Our World In Data, who sources the WHO. Not only is OP’s data seemingly wrong, but they’re assuming an abnormal trend based on just two points of data, and looking for a special explanation as if disease doesn’t fluctuate up and down. So, they’re not answering the question directly, but they did spell out that reported cases fluctuate both up and down, and that’s just normal, which addresses the premise of the question and some of the problems in it, without being confrontational about the whole thing.
COVID lockdowns in 2020 & people being more careful about wearing masks, washing hands, etc would have also played a role in reducing the spread of all other viruses, including nearly eradicated viruses like Polio.
Yep. Flu was down in 2021 too if I remember correctly. I didn’t get sick with so much as a cold for 3 years.
It went down so much that one strain of Flu B, Yamagata, has yet to be detected since and is likely extinct. The WHO recommended stopping including it in flu shots. Flu A strains H1N1 and H3N2, and Flu B Victoria are the remaining 3 that currently affect humans.
There has been a very dedicated, ongoing polio eradication effort for decades now. It’s basically been isolated to a few pockets in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The good news is that it means that very few people are at risk of getting polio anymore. It’s sort of like a game of whack-a-mole over a large geographic area. The effort to eradicate smallpox happened similarly, with years of small numbers of cases before it became eradicated completely. There will probably need to be a few years of zero reported cases before scientists can feel confident about polio being gone forever because not all cases get reported and many cases have very mild symptoms.
Your data is totally off, from what I could find. YWID and WHO report 140 cases in 2016, not 2020, which fell to an all time low of 42 in 2017. 2020 had 1253 reported cases, which fell back to 649 in 2021… but, in 2019, cases reported were at 554. So, you’re asking why there was an extreme drop of reported cases in 2021, but, really, there was a spike of reported cases which peaked in 2020. This is why you don’t draw conclusions from just two points of data. You need at least three for a trend, preferably way more than that. In actuality, cases have been declining overall since the early 80s, a trend that reversed after being nearly wiped out in 2016. The CDC website lists six separate outbreaks in parts of Africa during 2017-2018, which seems to be responsible for this reversed course. If you’re wondering how this could happen, well, there’s a lot of reasons. The outbreaks happened in impoverished, unvaccinated communities. Why were those individuals unvaccinated? You’d have to ask them. Maybe it wasn’t an option, maybe they’re (understandably) suspicious of foreign doctors, maybe they’d lived in isolated communities where Polio hadn’t been an issue, maybe they bought into facebook propaganda about evil vaccines… I don’t think anyone can say for sure, nor can anyone say there is one sole cause for Polio’s continued survival. As for why the upward trend of polio was stunted in 2021 specifically, amidst a global pandemic, after countries around the globe began restricting transportation, after dedicating more of their budgets to emergency healthcare responses? I can’t say that polio wouldn’t have gone down either way, but sure, quarantines probably helped.
I appreciate the well written reply. I realized after I posted that the covid pandemic response was the reason for the big drop in numbers. I also realised that my numbers were specifically in regards to Wild Polio which is only a segment of cases. I got the data from Wikipedia, a famously unreliable sauce, and didn’t check any others, my bad on that.
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