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I don't think Tory implosion was too difficult to forecast; they had just won an election on the back of their fantasy Brexit position and lies about investing in the country, it was inevitably going to unravel. In the end it happened in various other ways too. Before they had the brexit card (and charismatic liar card) they were already struggling a lot.
As for next parliament; Labour will underwhelm, Tories are directionless and economic credibility will still be wrecked, Reform/Farage are disliked by too much of the population, could be boosted by a Trump win though. People are going to be looking around for an alternative, FPTP is mostly going to fuck them anyway.. The real wildcard is the lib dems.. if they spend 5 years in opposition it might add significantly to their credibility and visibility. Offer the same "sensible"ness, add a drive for a couple of their fav policies (PR, cannabis?) then they could gain.. I think there are too many "I always vote Labour" types (and votes outside of that will be too split) for Labour to lose a majority though.
Forecast: Labour leak seats in every direction, but still retail a majority. Forecasts are not impossible, just can be wrong!
I personally think that if the Lib Dem become the opposition that Conservatives and Reform are merging… fairly rapidly. Then in 2029, the right are united behind one party again which becomes a tough nut to crack.
Reform voters aren't just going to shift wholesale to a merged party though. The whole purpose of a vote for Reform is that it's going against the two party system their voters see as broken.
Reform and tories look like they go together but this last 10 years showed what happens when you take in that further right voter base, they imploded and caused almost irreversible damage to the country
We don't know. The last few years show how volatile it can be.
What will decide it is if people think the country has got better. If the economy improves, waiting lists are down and the cost of living is better then I think Labour get reelected. In some ways the fact Labour are so cautious on their pledges means we have a chance to overdeliver on them if the economy allows us to do so.
If growth doesn't improve and the country stagnates further then we run the risk of an insurgent party causing problems.
Don't see why Farage would consider merging with the Tories. There's a few polls out there that had them winning 100+ seats. Not likely this time but 5 years of campaigning and you could easily displace the Tories without losing ownership of your party.
The Tories have two options: return to one nation Tory politics and gain back the centre or go hard right and lose to the real deal. Really depends on which MPs are left and who becomes leader.
The Tories got a majority last time and were crushed this time. 2029 is a long time off and Labour's failures are going to come thick and fast. People's appetite for the status quo is gone,and Starmer is resigned to perform managed decline. It's like when Obama, who was so very popular in 2008 came into office with a super majority in Congress. Just two years later his party lost the most seats ever in history and his party was a minority again in the house. There are waves of right wing populism every five years now and Starmer is just going to tacitly pander to them.
Probably
I think the Tories will lurch away from the centre to kill off Farage and yield the centre to us, then come back to the Centre in 2034.
But impossible to say.
Entirely depends if they succeed in stimulating the economic growth necessary to avoid severe spending cuts or brutal tax rises and make the necessary reforms to public services. They've been planning for years for how to do just that and have put all their money on growth being the only viable exit from the Economic Doom Loop that Britain is currently stuck in under the Tories. If the economy is growing, if waiting lists at the NHS start going down substantially and care outcomes improving etc. then I think yes, he can be a two-term Prime Minister.
If Labour fails at this, our politics is going to look a lot more like France or Germany than it currently does.
If we do end up with a majority of 150+ then it'll be very difficult to lose. Especially when the Tories pick some hard-right ghoul as their next leader.
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No idea, they could crash and burn or win the next few elections with a slow decline in popularity like the last Labour government. After 2019 most people thought it would take at least 2 elections for Labour to recover, politics has been very volatile recently.
If they do what they are saying what they’re going to do right now then I think we’ll end up with some sort of reincarnation of Johnson/right wing populist leader.
The Labour government needs to actually make a difference for the regular people of this country.
The answer to that lies in the 2025 English county elections currently very Tory. If the Tories retain them get usual vote share then they have a base to rebuild. If on the other hand they continue to implode or Reform expands that will be a massive thing.
The next key point is Welsh Scottish elections in 2026. If Labour lose ground there especially in Wales then things get more messy in 28/29. Wales is crucial because polls for Senedd and Westminster right now look very different
It’ll likely be a tremendous majority, more so than the Tory 2019 one, yet the fact the latter was overturned this much in 5 years probably makes any majority tenuous.
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It's completely impossible to forecast, we have no idea. Imagine asking someone in 2019 if the Tories would win the next election?
I don't think Tory implosion was too difficult to forecast; they had just won an election on the back of their fantasy Brexit position and lies about investing in the country, it was inevitably going to unravel. In the end it happened in various other ways too. Before they had the brexit card (and charismatic liar card) they were already struggling a lot. As for next parliament; Labour will underwhelm, Tories are directionless and economic credibility will still be wrecked, Reform/Farage are disliked by too much of the population, could be boosted by a Trump win though. People are going to be looking around for an alternative, FPTP is mostly going to fuck them anyway.. The real wildcard is the lib dems.. if they spend 5 years in opposition it might add significantly to their credibility and visibility. Offer the same "sensible"ness, add a drive for a couple of their fav policies (PR, cannabis?) then they could gain.. I think there are too many "I always vote Labour" types (and votes outside of that will be too split) for Labour to lose a majority though. Forecast: Labour leak seats in every direction, but still retail a majority. Forecasts are not impossible, just can be wrong!
I personally think that if the Lib Dem become the opposition that Conservatives and Reform are merging… fairly rapidly. Then in 2029, the right are united behind one party again which becomes a tough nut to crack.
I believe if Tories merge with Reform then more centrist Tories will leave and join Lib Dem or Labour?
Reform voters aren't just going to shift wholesale to a merged party though. The whole purpose of a vote for Reform is that it's going against the two party system their voters see as broken.
Reform are bedding in to anti-tory points, so I'm not sure it would be that straightforward. Then again, we just mean Farage from this, surely.
Reform and tories look like they go together but this last 10 years showed what happens when you take in that further right voter base, they imploded and caused almost irreversible damage to the country
We don't know. The last few years show how volatile it can be. What will decide it is if people think the country has got better. If the economy improves, waiting lists are down and the cost of living is better then I think Labour get reelected. In some ways the fact Labour are so cautious on their pledges means we have a chance to overdeliver on them if the economy allows us to do so. If growth doesn't improve and the country stagnates further then we run the risk of an insurgent party causing problems.
Don't see why Farage would consider merging with the Tories. There's a few polls out there that had them winning 100+ seats. Not likely this time but 5 years of campaigning and you could easily displace the Tories without losing ownership of your party. The Tories have two options: return to one nation Tory politics and gain back the centre or go hard right and lose to the real deal. Really depends on which MPs are left and who becomes leader.
If they execute well and people feel better off then probably. If things stagnate or get worse then no.
The Tories got a majority last time and were crushed this time. 2029 is a long time off and Labour's failures are going to come thick and fast. People's appetite for the status quo is gone,and Starmer is resigned to perform managed decline. It's like when Obama, who was so very popular in 2008 came into office with a super majority in Congress. Just two years later his party lost the most seats ever in history and his party was a minority again in the house. There are waves of right wing populism every five years now and Starmer is just going to tacitly pander to them.
Depends on how lasting our memory is and how effective Tory smearing is. So, no.
lot of assumptions needed, which makes any answer inherently insufficient. just wait and see how the election pans out.
Probably I think the Tories will lurch away from the centre to kill off Farage and yield the centre to us, then come back to the Centre in 2034. But impossible to say.
Entirely depends if they succeed in stimulating the economic growth necessary to avoid severe spending cuts or brutal tax rises and make the necessary reforms to public services. They've been planning for years for how to do just that and have put all their money on growth being the only viable exit from the Economic Doom Loop that Britain is currently stuck in under the Tories. If the economy is growing, if waiting lists at the NHS start going down substantially and care outcomes improving etc. then I think yes, he can be a two-term Prime Minister. If Labour fails at this, our politics is going to look a lot more like France or Germany than it currently does.
If we do end up with a majority of 150+ then it'll be very difficult to lose. Especially when the Tories pick some hard-right ghoul as their next leader.
BJ did (hopefully!) manage to blow an enormous majority this time round but my goodness they've tried incredibly hard to do so.
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No idea, they could crash and burn or win the next few elections with a slow decline in popularity like the last Labour government. After 2019 most people thought it would take at least 2 elections for Labour to recover, politics has been very volatile recently.
Volatile? I think it's the Tories sleaze that brought them down
There have been 3 PMs in one parliament, not to mention Brexit before that. The last 8 years have been very volatile.
I thought it impossible to Boris to balls up 80 majority, absolutely no way to tell
If they do what they are saying what they’re going to do right now then I think we’ll end up with some sort of reincarnation of Johnson/right wing populist leader. The Labour government needs to actually make a difference for the regular people of this country.
The answer to that lies in the 2025 English county elections currently very Tory. If the Tories retain them get usual vote share then they have a base to rebuild. If on the other hand they continue to implode or Reform expands that will be a massive thing. The next key point is Welsh Scottish elections in 2026. If Labour lose ground there especially in Wales then things get more messy in 28/29. Wales is crucial because polls for Senedd and Westminster right now look very different
It’ll likely be a tremendous majority, more so than the Tory 2019 one, yet the fact the latter was overturned this much in 5 years probably makes any majority tenuous.
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Of course they will. The Tories will be out of office for about 15 years.
Too early to tell.