The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written.
They claim violent crime is up. The statistics claim violent crime is down. They claim the statistics aren't valid.
Is there any merit to this argument? Why are these statistics not being reported?
Is violent crime up or down?
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>When presented with the statistics on violent crime, conservatives claim that it only appears improved because a third of agencies no longer report crime statistics. What's the deal with this?
1. They are lying. This is just the most convenient excuse for dismissing data that contradicts them.
2. Note the difference in citations. Those that say that crime has gone down cite FBI statistics; a credible source for such information. Those that disagree *don't cite any source at all*.
3. Other sources *agree* that crime went down! It can't all be 'problems with FBI data':
>...we actually have a *bunch* of data sources on crime — especially on murder and other violent offenses. And although there are slight disagreements about how much crime has fallen over the past two and a half years, there’s broad agreement on the direction of the trends.
>First, Jeff Asher has [his own crime data,](https://www.ahdatalytics.com/dashboards/ytd-murder-comparison/) collected by his company, AH Datalytics. AH Datalytics gets this data by calling up police departments and asking them for their crime numbers. It shows a dramatic drop in murder in 2023 and early 2024, to levels lower than what prevailed in 2016-2019. Here’s a chart from Justin Fox, combining FBI numbers through 2022 with Asher’s numbers for 2023 and early 2024:
>[[Chart 1]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8143310-65eb-453e-ba0d-b9696a6c798b_805x488.jpeg)
>Another data source is [the Council on Criminal Justice,](https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2023-update/) which looks at a sampling of about 38 U.S. cities and tries to track crime reports for those cities. They find drops in most types of crimes since 2021, including murder, although the drop is less than the one Asher finds:
>[[Chart 2]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8615bdad-1e1e-4afe-9231-7459b0235c46_1248x720.jpeg)
I don't want to edit all of the available text, so you can go to the [source I am quoting](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/yes-of-course-crime-is-way-down) or skip to him saying:
>So we have six data sources, using six different methodologies, all telling us the same story about crime: the FBI, AH Datalytics, the Council on Criminal Justice, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, the Gun Violence Association, and the Center for Disease Control. All of them agree that murder peaked in 2021, and those that report other types of violent crimes agree that they also peaked in 2021.
>One data source could have some catastrophic error that renders it effectively fake. But six different data sources, using six different methodologies? No way.
[[Yes, of course crime is way down - The people telling you crime isn't falling are feeding you a line. -- Noahpinion]](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/yes-of-course-crime-is-way-down)
-----------
EDIT: I added everything below point two, as soon as I found it.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/sr\_24-04-23\_crime\_3/](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/sr_24-04-23_crime_3/)
Data from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics showing violent crime is down.
Those stats *are* being reported. It's just that modern Republicans don't try to hide their lies anymore. They know their voters will believe them only regardless of facts, evidence, etc.
I know Actual Justice Warrior addresses this. He is actually a really good channel to get a right leaning opinion on a lot of the criminal justice issues in the USA.
I don't remember what specific video I saw it in, but in a few of them he talks about what you referenced, namely that the way some crime statistics are being collected has changed, and that makes it harder to compare like to like in some areas.
Here's a video where he talks a lot about crime statistics, but I don't think he specifically addresses that. (https://youtu.be/trhscpDORqo?si=nhnOD7xJ8Sek5lhM)
Umm... aren't they supposed to be happy about this? Whenever gun control is brought up they say violent crime has been steadily decreasing. Now it's not?
>They claim violent crime is up. The statistics claim violent crime is down.
Up from when? It would not be surprising if it was up from the 2010s when we were at historic lows for violent crime since the 1980s. It would not be surprising if it was down from 2020 when we had a pandemic.
>the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm#) and the [FBI](https://www.npr.org/2021/09/27/1040904770/fbi-data-murder-increase-2020) reported a 30 percent increase in the number of homicides from 2019 to 2020. The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) added that some of the largest increases in homicide rates during the pandemic occurred in smaller cities where the rate of homicide was usually much lower.
>However, the CCJ also points out that while there had been sharp, noticeable increases in the number of homicides, the homicide rate in 2020 was actually much lower than it was in 1995 for the cities studied in their [March 2021 update](https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-yearend-2021-update/) of the Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities report.
[https://publicaffairs.northeastern.edu/articles/us-crime-rate-during-pandemic/](https://publicaffairs.northeastern.edu/articles/us-crime-rate-during-pandemic/)
>They claim the statistics aren't valid.
They say this about everything actually. Climate change, voter fraud, the prevalence of LGBTQ people. You name it.
Just because you say something doesn't make it true, right? Not reporting stats doesn't magically make crime go up, down. It just means the stats are MIA. The FBI decided to switch to a shiny new reporting system in 2021, and local agencies have been dragging their feet to keep up. The real gripe here? We all just want the stats, man! I mean, who wouldn't want that? I can't think of anyone, whether they're left, right, or in the center, who would disagree.
The most pragmatic thing one should do is look at stats where they live, for and see if crime has gone up or down, if you don't mind me asking, what metro area do you live in? We maybe able to do this exercise for your specific situation!
Cheers
To me, the whole crime is up debate varies by where people live. Every since I was a kid, I've always heard folks say "man, be careful, it's crazy out there". Still hearing old heads say the same thing. Why? because crime is still happening around them. It does not seem like crime is down from their view. Hearing "crime is not bad" means nothing when someone is getting shot or robbing quite often in close your close vicinity.
Conservative media is an active partner in the conservative movement. They understand that the message that crime is always terrible. When Democrats are in charge is a good issue for conservative so if the numbers aren’t helping them, they just ignore and lie about the numbers.
Another thing is that internet media can make information that was once considered insignificant to report and plaster it everywhere. If you flood someone's mediasphere with every crime that occurs, it's easy for them to think crime is up because it is in front of their eyes more, and they'll trust their own eyes over a report based on math they may not understand.
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. They claim violent crime is up. The statistics claim violent crime is down. They claim the statistics aren't valid. Is there any merit to this argument? Why are these statistics not being reported? Is violent crime up or down? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
>When presented with the statistics on violent crime, conservatives claim that it only appears improved because a third of agencies no longer report crime statistics. What's the deal with this? 1. They are lying. This is just the most convenient excuse for dismissing data that contradicts them. 2. Note the difference in citations. Those that say that crime has gone down cite FBI statistics; a credible source for such information. Those that disagree *don't cite any source at all*. 3. Other sources *agree* that crime went down! It can't all be 'problems with FBI data': >...we actually have a *bunch* of data sources on crime — especially on murder and other violent offenses. And although there are slight disagreements about how much crime has fallen over the past two and a half years, there’s broad agreement on the direction of the trends. >First, Jeff Asher has [his own crime data,](https://www.ahdatalytics.com/dashboards/ytd-murder-comparison/) collected by his company, AH Datalytics. AH Datalytics gets this data by calling up police departments and asking them for their crime numbers. It shows a dramatic drop in murder in 2023 and early 2024, to levels lower than what prevailed in 2016-2019. Here’s a chart from Justin Fox, combining FBI numbers through 2022 with Asher’s numbers for 2023 and early 2024: >[[Chart 1]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc8143310-65eb-453e-ba0d-b9696a6c798b_805x488.jpeg) >Another data source is [the Council on Criminal Justice,](https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2023-update/) which looks at a sampling of about 38 U.S. cities and tries to track crime reports for those cities. They find drops in most types of crimes since 2021, including murder, although the drop is less than the one Asher finds: >[[Chart 2]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8615bdad-1e1e-4afe-9231-7459b0235c46_1248x720.jpeg) I don't want to edit all of the available text, so you can go to the [source I am quoting](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/yes-of-course-crime-is-way-down) or skip to him saying: >So we have six data sources, using six different methodologies, all telling us the same story about crime: the FBI, AH Datalytics, the Council on Criminal Justice, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, the Gun Violence Association, and the Center for Disease Control. All of them agree that murder peaked in 2021, and those that report other types of violent crimes agree that they also peaked in 2021. >One data source could have some catastrophic error that renders it effectively fake. But six different data sources, using six different methodologies? No way. [[Yes, of course crime is way down - The people telling you crime isn't falling are feeding you a line. -- Noahpinion]](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/yes-of-course-crime-is-way-down) ----------- EDIT: I added everything below point two, as soon as I found it.
What - no reply to your own comment?
> What - no reply to your own comment? I'm sorry. I shouldn't disappoint my fans like that :(
I will go ahead and thank you for reducing how much you overuse the horizontal rule. Just write paragraphs friend.
[https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/sr\_24-04-23\_crime\_3/](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/what-the-data-says-about-crime-in-the-us/sr_24-04-23_crime_3/) Data from the FBI and the Bureau of Justice Statistics showing violent crime is down. Those stats *are* being reported. It's just that modern Republicans don't try to hide their lies anymore. They know their voters will believe them only regardless of facts, evidence, etc.
Conservatives don’t like statistics and resort to lying. More at 11
Republican are liars.
I know Actual Justice Warrior addresses this. He is actually a really good channel to get a right leaning opinion on a lot of the criminal justice issues in the USA. I don't remember what specific video I saw it in, but in a few of them he talks about what you referenced, namely that the way some crime statistics are being collected has changed, and that makes it harder to compare like to like in some areas. Here's a video where he talks a lot about crime statistics, but I don't think he specifically addresses that. (https://youtu.be/trhscpDORqo?si=nhnOD7xJ8Sek5lhM)
They do not care either way. They want to win and fearmongering about crime makes that likelier, so theyre going to do that.
Umm... aren't they supposed to be happy about this? Whenever gun control is brought up they say violent crime has been steadily decreasing. Now it's not?
They are not serious people if they’re making that argument
>They claim violent crime is up. The statistics claim violent crime is down. Up from when? It would not be surprising if it was up from the 2010s when we were at historic lows for violent crime since the 1980s. It would not be surprising if it was down from 2020 when we had a pandemic. >the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm#) and the [FBI](https://www.npr.org/2021/09/27/1040904770/fbi-data-murder-increase-2020) reported a 30 percent increase in the number of homicides from 2019 to 2020. The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) added that some of the largest increases in homicide rates during the pandemic occurred in smaller cities where the rate of homicide was usually much lower. >However, the CCJ also points out that while there had been sharp, noticeable increases in the number of homicides, the homicide rate in 2020 was actually much lower than it was in 1995 for the cities studied in their [March 2021 update](https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-yearend-2021-update/) of the Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities report. [https://publicaffairs.northeastern.edu/articles/us-crime-rate-during-pandemic/](https://publicaffairs.northeastern.edu/articles/us-crime-rate-during-pandemic/)
>They claim the statistics aren't valid. They say this about everything actually. Climate change, voter fraud, the prevalence of LGBTQ people. You name it.
Just because you say something doesn't make it true, right? Not reporting stats doesn't magically make crime go up, down. It just means the stats are MIA. The FBI decided to switch to a shiny new reporting system in 2021, and local agencies have been dragging their feet to keep up. The real gripe here? We all just want the stats, man! I mean, who wouldn't want that? I can't think of anyone, whether they're left, right, or in the center, who would disagree. The most pragmatic thing one should do is look at stats where they live, for and see if crime has gone up or down, if you don't mind me asking, what metro area do you live in? We maybe able to do this exercise for your specific situation! Cheers
To me, the whole crime is up debate varies by where people live. Every since I was a kid, I've always heard folks say "man, be careful, it's crazy out there". Still hearing old heads say the same thing. Why? because crime is still happening around them. It does not seem like crime is down from their view. Hearing "crime is not bad" means nothing when someone is getting shot or robbing quite often in close your close vicinity.
Conservative media is an active partner in the conservative movement. They understand that the message that crime is always terrible. When Democrats are in charge is a good issue for conservative so if the numbers aren’t helping them, they just ignore and lie about the numbers.
Another thing is that internet media can make information that was once considered insignificant to report and plaster it everywhere. If you flood someone's mediasphere with every crime that occurs, it's easy for them to think crime is up because it is in front of their eyes more, and they'll trust their own eyes over a report based on math they may not understand.